Model for Spatiotemporal Crime Prediction with Improved Deep Learning

Crime is hard to anticipate since it occurs at random and can occur anywhere at any moment, making it a difficult issue for any society to address. By analyzing and comparing eight known prediction models: Naive Bayes, Stacking, Random Forest, Lazy:IBK, Bagging, Support Vector Machine, Convolutional Neural Network, and Locally Weighted Learning – this study proposed an improved deep learning crime prediction model using convolutional neural networks and the xgboost algorithm to predict crime. The major goal of this research is to provide an improved crime prediction model based on previous criminal records. Using the Boston crime dataset, where our larceny crime dataset was extracted, exploratory data analysis (EDA) is used to uncover patterns and explain trends in crimes. The performance of the proposed model on the basis of accuracy, recall, and f-measure was 100% outperforming the other models used in this study. The analysis of the proposed model and prediction can aid security services in making better use of their resources, anticipating crime at a certain time, and serving the society better

A Multi-Scale Correlative Approach for Crowd-Sourced Multi-Variate Spatiotemporal Data

With the increase in community-contributed data availability, citizens and analysts are interested in identifying patterns, trends and correlation within these datasets. Various levels of aggregation are often applied to interpret such large data schemes. Identifying the proper scales of aggregation is a non-trivial task in this exploratory data analysis process. In this paper, we present an integrated visual analytics environment that facilitates the exploration of multivariate categorical spatiotemporal data at multiple spatial scales of aggregation, focusing on citizen-contributed data. We propose a compact visual correlation representation by embedding various statistical measures across different spatial regions to enable users to explore correlations between multiple data categories across different spatial scales. The system provides several scale-sensitive spatial partitioning strategies to examine the sensitivity of correlations at varying spatial extents. To demonstrate the capabilities of our system, we provide several usage scenarios from various domains including citizen-contributed social media (soundscape ecology) data

Crime Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning: A Systematic Review and Future Directions

Predicting crime using machine learning and deep learning techniques has gained considerable attention from researchers in recent years, focusing on identifying patterns and trends in crime occurrences. This review paper examines over 150 articles to explore the various machine learning and deep learning algorithms applied to predict crime. The study provides access to the datasets used for crime prediction by researchers and analyzes prominent approaches applied in machine learning and deep learning algorithms to predict crime, offering insights into different trends and factors related to criminal activities. Additionally, the paper highlights potential gaps and future directions that can enhance the accuracy of crime prediction. Finally, the comprehensive overview of research discussed in this paper on crime prediction using machine learning and deep learning approaches serves as a valuable reference for researchers in this field. By gaining a deeper understanding of crime prediction techniques, law enforcement agencies can develop strategies to prevent and respond to criminal activities more effectively.Comment: 35 Pages, 6 tables and 11 figures. Consists of Dataset links used for crime prediction. Review Pape

An Analysis of Selected Clusters of Fires in Florida (1996 - 2018)

Hidden within the day-to-day routine responses of fire departments are possible multiple fires set by individuals in a small area with an unusual frequency. These fires may be the initial announcement of an emerging serial offender who is declaring a wound, an intolerable life situation, or is triggered by unknown events. This study sought to predict incendiary fires within a known cluster by using observable variables, both prior to and after the cluster event. This was done to further our understanding of the characteristics of clusters of intentionally lit fires. This was accomplished by examining the Florida Fire Information Reports (FFIRS) from the Florida State Fire Marshal’s Division and the Augmented Criminal Information (ACISS) reports provided by the Florida Division of Investigative and Forensic Services, Bureau of Fire, Arson and Explosives Investigation from 1996 to 2018. The study surveyed 1,260,369 records from which 45 clusters comprised of 1216 individual fire events were used

Spatio-temporal variations in the urban rhythm: the travelling waves of crime

This is the final version. Available from EDP Sciences via the DOI in this record.In the last decades, the notion that cities are in a state of equilibrium with a centralised organisation has given place to the viewpoint of cities in disequilibrium and organised from bottom to up. In this perspective, cities are evolving systems that exhibit emergent phenomena built from local decisions. While urban evolution promotes the emergence of positive social phenomena such as the formation of innovation hubs and the increase in cultural diversity, it also yields negative phenomena such as increases in criminal activity. Yet, we are still far from understanding the driving mechanisms of these phenomena. In particular, approaches to analyse urban phenomena are limited in scope by neglecting both temporal non-stationarity and spatial heterogeneity. In the case of criminal activity, we know for more than one century that crime peaks during specific times of the year, but the literature still fails to characterise the mobility of crime. Here we develop an approach to describe the spatial, temporal, and periodic variations in urban quantities. With crime data from 12 cities, we characterise how the periodicity of crime varies spatially across the city over time. We confirm one-year criminal cycles and show that this periodicity occurs unevenly across the city. These ‘waves of crime’ keep travelling across the city: while cities have a stable number of regions with a circannual period, the regions exhibit non-stationary series. Our findings support the concept of cities in a constant change, influencing urban phenomena—in agreement with the notion of cities not in equilibrium.Leibniz AssociationArmy Research OfficeScience Without Borders program (CAPES, Brazil

CrimeTelescope: crime hotspot prediction based on urban and social media data fusion

Crime is a complex social issue impacting a considerable number of individuals within a society. Preventing and reducing crime is a top priority in many countries. Given limited policing and crime reduction resources, it is often crucial to identify effective strategies to deploy the available resources. Towards this goal, crime hotspot prediction has previously been suggested. Crime hotspot prediction leverages past data in order to identify geographical areas susceptible of hosting crimes in the future. However, most of the existing techniques in crime hotspot prediction solely use historical crime records to identify crime hotspots, while ignoring the predictive power of other data such as urban or social media data. In this paper, we propose CrimeTelescope, a platform that predicts and visualizes crime hotspots based on a fusion of different data types. Our platform continuously collects crime data as well as urban and social media data on the Web. It then extracts key features from the collected data based on both statistical and linguistic analysis. Finally, it identifies crime hotspots by leveraging the extracted features, and offers visualizations of the hotspots on an interactive map. Based on real-world data collected from New York City, we show that combining different types of data can effectively improve the crime hotspot prediction accuracy (by up to 5.2%), compared to classical approaches based on historical crime records only. In addition, we demonstrate the usability of our platform through a System Usability Scale (SUS) survey on a full prototype of CrimeTelescope

Crime Prediction with Historical Crime and Movement Data of Potential Offenders Using a Spatio-Temporal Cokriging Method

Crime prediction using machine learning and data fusion assimilation has become a hot topic. Most of the models rely on historical crime data and related environment variables. The activity of potential offenders affects the crime patterns, but the data with fine resolution have not been applied in the crime prediction. The goal of this study is to test the effect of the activity of potential offenders in the crime prediction by combining this data in the prediction models and assessing the prediction accuracies. This study uses the movement data of past offenders collected in routine police stop-and-question operations to infer the movement of future offenders. The offender movement data compensates historical crime data in a Spatio-Temporal Cokriging (ST-Cokriging) model for crime prediction. The models are implemented for weekly, biweekly, and quad-weekly prediction in the XT police district of ZG city, China. Results with the incorporation of the offender movement data are consistently better than those without it. The improvement is most pronounced for the weekly model, followed by the biweekly model, and the quad-weekly model. In sum, the addition of offender movement data enhances crime prediction, especially for short periods