Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Ganjiang River Catchment, China: Characteristics and Influences of Climate Change

Soil erosion is one of the most critical environmental hazards in the world. Understanding the changes in rainfall erosivity (RE) and erosivity density (ED), as well as their affecting factors, at local and catchment scales in the context of climate warming is an important prerequisite of soil erosion prevention and soil loss risk assessment. The present study identified the variability and trends of RE and ED in terms of both time and space in the Ganjiang River catchment over the period of 1960–2012, and also analyzed and discussed the impact of climate change. The results show that RE and ED in the catchment had great monthly variations and high year-to-year variability. Both presented long-term increasing trends over the entire study period. The highest RE and ED were observed in June and in the eastern and northeast parts of the catchment, which indicated that June was the most susceptible month for soil erosion in this area and the lower reaches of the Ganjiang River was the riskiest area for soil erosion. Finally, the East Asian summer monsoon and climate change were highly correlated with changes in RE and ED

Afforestation and Reforestation: Drivers, Dynamics, and Impacts

Afforestation/reforestation (or forestation) has been implemented worldwide as an effective measure towards sustainable ecosystem services and addresses global environmental problems such as climate change. The conversion of grasslands, croplands, shrublands, or bare lands to forests can dramatically alter forest water, energy, and carbon cycles and, thus, ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration, soil erosion control, and water quality improvement). Large-scale afforestation/reforestation is typically driven by policies and, in turn, can also have substantial socioeconomic impacts. To enable success, forestation endeavors require novel approaches that involve a series of complex processes and interdisciplinary sciences. For example, exotic or fast-growing tree species are often used to improve soil conditions of degraded lands or maximize productivity, and it often takes a long time to understand and quantify the consequences of such practices at watershed or regional scales. Maintaining the sustainability of man-made forests is becoming increasingly challenging under a changing environment and disturbance regime changes such as wildland fires, urbanization, drought, air pollution, climate change, and socioeconomic change. Therefore, this Special Issue focuses on case studies of the drivers, dynamics, and impacts of afforestation/reforestation at regional, national, or global scales. These new studies provide an update on the scientific advances related to forestation. This information is urgently needed by land managers and policy makers to better manage forest resources in today’s rapidly changing environments

Reservoir delineation and cumulative impacts assessment in large river basins: A case study of the Yangtze River Basin

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Computational study of hydro-environmental processes of Poyang Lake, China

Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, plays a key role in regulating the hydrology, water quality and ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Recent industrial development and urbanization in Jiangxi province have driven rapid increase in water consumption and deterioration of water quality, exerting pressure on water utilization in the Poyang Lake basin. In order to set up an integrated water management framework for the protection of Poyang Lake’s ecosystem and surrounding communities, an accurate and representative evaluation of the hydraulic and environmental challenges is vital. In this research, a numerical model is developed and utilized to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Poyang Lake and its surrounding river networks. The study couples an in-house 1-D river network hydrodynamic and mass transport model together with a 2-D MIKE hydrodynamic and water quality model. The model is validated against field-measured data from the local water authorities. The impact of the proposed downstream barrage on Poyang Lake’s hydrodynamics and water quality is then investigated. It is concluded that: the establish integrated model is capable of simulating the hydrodynamic and water-quality processes of the Poyang Lake to satisfactory degrees; and the operation of proposed barrage has large effects on the nutrients distribution and water resources availability. The findings of the study contribute to a better understanding of the fate of Poyang Lake’s pollutants and the influence of the proposed hydraulic projects on the lake’s flow and ecosystem. Many of these findings are relevant to large freshwater lakes in other developing countries and could contribute to the fields of water engineering and water management

Modelling flood hazard in dry climates of southern Africa: a case of Beitbridge, Limpopo Basin, Zimbabwe

Floods are among the natural hazards that have adverse effects on human lives, livelihoods, economies and infrastructure. Dry climates of southern Africa have, over the years, experienced an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclone induced floods. However, understanding the key factors that influence susceptibility to floods has remained largely unexplored in these dry climates. Therefore, this study sought to model flood hazards and determine key factors that significantly explain the probability of flood occurrence in the southern parts of Beitbridge District, Zimbabwe. To achieve these objectives, logistic regression was used to predict spatial variations in flood hazards following cyclone Dineo in 2017. Before spatial prediction of flood hazard, environmental variables were tested for multicollinearity using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Only two environmental variables, i.e., elevation and rainfall, were not significantly correlated and were thus used in the subsequent flood hazard modelling. Results demonstrate that two variables significantly(p < 0.05) predicted spatial variations in flood hazard in the southern parts of the Beitbridge District with relatively high accuracy defined by the area under the curve (AUC = 0.98). In addition, results indicate that~56 % of the study area is regarded as highly susceptible to floods. Given the projected increase in extreme events such as intense rainfall as a result of climate change, floods will be expected to correspondingly increase in these semi-arid regions. Results presented in this study underscore the importance of geospatial techniques in flood-hazard modelling, which is the key input in sustainable land-use planning. It can thus be concluded that spatial analytical techniques play a key role in flood early warning systems aimed at supporting and building resilient communities in the face of climate change–induced floods

Spatio-temporal appraisal of water-borne erosion using optical remote sensing and GIS in the Umzintlava catchement (T32E), Eastern Cape, South Africa.

Globally, soil erosion by water is often reported as the worst form of land degradation owing to its adverse effects, cutting across the ecological and socio-economic spectrum. In general, soil erosion negatively affects the soil fertility, effectively rendering the soil unproductive. This poses a serious threat to food security especially in the developing world including South Africa where about 6 million households derive their income from agriculture, and yet more than 70% of the country’s land is subject to erosion of varying intensities. The Eastern Cape in particular is often considered the most hard-hit province in South Africa due to meteorological and geomorphological factors. It is on this premise the present study is aimed at assessing the spatial and temporal patterns of water-borne erosion in the Umzintlava Catchment, Eastern Cape, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model together with geospatial technologies, namely Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. Specific objectives were to: (1) review recent developments on the use of GIS and remote sensing technologies in assessing and deriving soil erosion factors as represented by RUSLE parameters, (2) assess soil erosion vulnerability of the Umzintlava Catchment using geospatial driven RUSLE model, and (3) assess the impact of landuse/landcover (LULC) change dynamics on soil erosion in the study area during the period 1989-2017. To gain an understanding of recent developments including related successes and challenges on the use of geospatial technologies in deriving individual RUSLE parameters, extensive literature survey was conducted. An integrative methodology, spatially combining the RUSLE model with Systeme Pour l’Obsevation de la Terre (SPOT7) imagery within a digital GIS environment was used to generate relevant information on erosion vulnerability of the Umzintlava Catchment. The results indicated that the catchment suffered from unprecedented rates of soil loss during the study period recording the mean annual soil loss as high as 11 752 t ha−1yr−1. Topography as represented by the LS-factor was the most sensitive parameter to soil loss occurring in hillslopes, whereas in gully-dominated areas, soil type (K-factor) was the overriding factor. In an attempt to understand the impact of LULC change dynamics on soil erosion in the Umzintlava Catchment from the period 1989-2017 (28 years), multi-temporal Landsat data together with RUSLE was used. A post-classification change detection comparison showed that water bodies, agriculture, and grassland decreased by 0.038%, 1.796%, and 13.417%, respectively, whereas areas covered by forest, badlands, and bare soil and built-up area increased by 3.733%, 1.778%, and 9.741% respectively, during the study period. The mean annual soil loss declined from 1027.36 t ha−1yr−1 in 1989 to 138.71 t ha−1yr−1 in 2017. Though soil loss decreased during the observed period, there were however apparent indications of consistent increase in soil loss intensity (risk), most notably, in the elevated parts of the catchment. The proportion of the catchment area with high (25 – 60 t ha−1yr−1) to extremely high (>150 t ha−1yr−1) soil loss risk increased from 0.006% in 1989 to 0.362% in 2017. Further analysis of soil loss results by different LULC classes revealed that some LULC classes, i.e. bare soil and built-up area, agriculture, grassland, and forest, experienced increased soil loss rates during the 28 years study period. Overall, the study concluded that the methodology integrating the RUSLE model with GIS and remote sensing is not only accurate and time-efficient in identifying erosion prone areas in both spatial and temporal terms, but is also a cost-effective alternative to traditional field-based methods. Although successful, few issues were encountered in this study. The estimated soil loss rates in Chapter 3 are above tolerable limits, whereas in Chapter 4, soil loss rates are within tolerable limits. The discrepancy in these results could be explained by the differences in the spatial resolution of SPOT (5m * 5m) and Landsat (30m * 30m) images used in chapters 3 and 4, respectively. Further research should therefore investigate the impact of spatial resolution on RUSLE-estimated soil loss in which case optical sensors including Landsat, Sentinel, and SPOT images may be compared

Satellite Altimetry and Hydrologic Modeling of Poorly-Gauged Tropical Watershed

This report was prepared for and submitted to the Graduate School of the Ohio State University as a dissertation for partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degree.This research was carried out under supervision of Professor C.K. Shum, Division of Geodetic Science, School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University. Hidayat at Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Department of Wageningen University and Limnology Research Agency of Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) are especially acknowledged for providing in-situ discharge, rating curve and precipitation data for the Upper Mahakam Sub-watershed study region.This research is primarily supported by the Fulbright PhD Presidential Scholarship administered by American Indonesian Exchange Foundation (AMINEF) and the Institute for International Education (IIE). In addition, this study is partially funded by grants from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Science Team project (Univ. of Colorado, 154-5322), NASA's Geodetic Imaging project (NNX12AQ07G), NASA's Application Science Program under the SERVIR project (NNX12AM85G), and The Ohio State University's Climate, Water, and Carbon (http://cwc.osu.edu/) program.Fresh water resources are critical for daily human consumption. Therefore, a continuous monitoring effort over their quantity and quality is instrumental. One important model for water quantity monitoring is the rainfall-runoff model, which represents the response of a watershed to the variability of precipitation, thus estimating the discharge of a channel (Bedient and Huber, 2002, Beven, 2012). Remote sensing and satellite geodetic observations are capable to provide critical hydrological parameters, which can be used to support hydrologic modeling. For the case of satellite radar altimetry, limited temporal resolutions (e.g., satellite revisit period) prohibit the use of this method for a short (<weekly) interval monitoring of water level or discharge. On the other hand, the current satellite radar altimeter footprints limit the water level measurement for rivers wider than 1 km (Birkett, 1998, Birkett et al., 2002). Some studies indeed reported successful retrieval of water level for small-size rivers as narrow as 80 m (Kuo and Kao, 2011, Michailovsky et al., 2012); however, the processing of current satellite altimetry signals for small water bodies to retrieve accurate water levels, remains challenging. To address this scientific challenge, this study poses two main objectives: (1) to monitor small (40–200 m width) and medium-sized (200–800 m width) rivers and lakes using satellite altimetry through identification and choice of the over-water radar waveforms corresponding to the appropriately waveform-retracked water level; and (2) to develop a rainfall-runoff hydrological model to represent the response of mesoscale watershed to the variability of precipitation. Both studies address the humid tropics of Southeast Asia, specifically in Indonesia, where similar studies do not yet exist. This study uses the Level 2 radar altimeter measurements generated by European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Envisat (Environmental Satellite) mission. The first study proves that satellite altimetry provides a good alternative or the only means in some regions to measure the water level of medium-sized river (200–800 m width) and small lake (extent <1000 km2) in Southeast Asia humid tropic with reasonable accuracy. In addition, the procedure to choose retracked Envisat altimetry water level heights via identification or selection of over water waveform shapes is reliable; therefore this study concluded that the use of waveform shape selection procedure should be a standard measure in determining qualified range measurements especially over small rivers and lakes. This study also found that Ice-1 is not necessarily the best retracker as reported by previous studies, among the four standard waveform retracking algorithms for Envisat altimetry observing hydrologic bodies. The second study modeled the response of the poorly-gauged watershed in the Southeast Asia’s humid tropic through the application of Hydrologic Engineering Center – Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The performance evaluation of HEC-HMS discharge estimation confirms a good match between the simulated discharges with the observed ones. As the result of precipitation data analysis, this study found that Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) is the preferred input forcing for the model, given the thorough evaluation of its relationship with field-measured precipitation data prior to its use as primary climatic forcing. This iii research also proposes a novel approach to process the TRMM precipitation estimation spatially through Thiessen polygon and area average hybrid method, which model the spatial distribution of TRMM data to match the spatial location of field meteorological stations. Through a simultaneous validation that compares the water level anomaly transformed from HEC-HMS simulated discharge and satellite altimetry measurement, this study found that satellite altimetry measures water level anomaly closer to the true water level anomaly than the water level anomaly converted from HEC-HMS simulated discharge. Some critical recommendations for future studies include the use of waveform shape selection procedure in the satellite altimetry based water level measurement of small and medium-sized rivers and small lakes, as well as the exploration to implement data assimilation between satellite altimetry and the hydrologic model for better discharge and water level estimations

Modelling the impacts of land-used and climate change in Skudai river watershed

Predicting the impact of land-use, climate change and Best Management Practices (BMPs) on a watershed is imperative for effective management of aquatic ecosystems, floods, pollutant control and maintenance of water quality standard in a tropical climate. Based on the prediction, unique information can be derived that is critical to the watershed management under dynamic environmental conditions. The study seeks to evaluate how land-use and climate change influences the hydrology, sediments, and water quality of an urbanized tropical watershed in which the land-use is controlled by urban development as observed from historical and projected land covers. Therefore, the response of a tropica l watershed and its river system under climate and land-use changes were evaluated using Skudai River watershed as a case study. Seven land-use scenarios from the year 1989 to 2039 were developed using remote sensing teclmiques, and nine projected climate change scenarios were derived using dynamically downscaled model from the based projection under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. These scenarios were integrated into the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model to determine the impact of land-use , climate change, and pollutants control via best management practices in a tropical watershed system. The model was calibrated and validated from 2002 to 2014, and the performance coefficients showed a good correlation between simulated and observed streamflow, water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), nitrate nitrogen (N03-N), and orthophosphate (P04) concentrations. The output of the validated model under land-use changes showed that the hydrological water balance of the watershed changes with total runoff as the primary source of water loss. For streamflows and in-stream concentrations (NH3-N, N03-N, and P04) , as the streamflow increases, NH3-N and P04 concentrations increase while N03-N concentration showed low response as compared to the other two concentrations. As urban development increased from 18.2% to 49.2%, nutrient influx such as total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads increased from 3080 to 4560 kg/yr and from 130 to 270 kg/yr, respectively. Furthermore, TN to TP ratio changed from 8.3:1 to 7:1, an indication that the rivers are receiving excess nutrients flows which might result in eutrophication at the downstream of the watershed . The amount of sediment load produced in the watershed decreased by approximately 17.8% as a result of the changes in land-use derived from urban development. Further analysis ofthe results showed that climate change with high rainfall and increase in air temperature do not affect DO concentration and water temperature in comparison to climate change with low rainfall. Implementation of multiple detention pond BMPs in identified Critical Source Areas (CSAs) reduced pollutant loads by 14% to 27% as compared to watershed without any BMPS, independent ofclimate and landuse changes. Analysis ofBMPs using existing and future land-use is very important to ensure their effectiveness to control and maintain water quality. This study provides a basis to develop water resource management in an urban watershed and be resilient to land-use and climate changes

An assessment of the impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on wetland extent within Mzingwane catchment, Zimbabwe

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy(Geography and Environmental Science). Johannesburg, June 2018.Wetlands ecosystems are amongst the most diverse and valuable environments which provide a number of goods and services pertinent to human and natural systems functioning yet they are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic and climatic changes. This thesis, examines the impact of climatic trends and variations, and land use/land (LU/LC) cover changes on wetland extent within Mzingwane catchment, south-western of Zimbabwe. An attempt is made to establish how the two stressors (climate and LU/LC changes) modify areal extents of wetlands over time, grounded on the hypothesis that, climate and LU/LC related changes impact on wetland ecosystems resulting in their degradation, shrinking in size and in some cases overall loss. To achieve the broader objective of the study, a number of parametric and non-parametric statistical analyses were employed to quantify and ascertain climate variability and change in Mzingwane catchment through the use of historic and current climatic trends in rainfall and temperature (T). Remote sensing data was used for wetland change analysis for the period between 1984 and 2015as well as future land cover predictions based on CA-Markov Chain model. LU/LC changes on nested wetlands were modelled at catchment level. In addition the study simulated future rainfall and extreme events and their implications on wetland dynamics using Regional Climate Models derived from CORDEX data. Trends in annual Tmax significantly increased (p=1mm) has decreased by 34%, thus suggesting much more concentrated and increased rainfall intensity. A notable shift in both the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season is recorded, particularly during the 21st century, which has resulted in a significant reduction (p<0.05) in the length of the rainy season. Land change analysis results show a decline in woodland and wetland cover which could be resulting from both human and natural factors. Major conversions are from wetland cover to crop field, suggesting agricultural encroachment onto wetland areas. Wetland area thus significantly decreased by 60.16% (236, 52 ha) in the last 30 years (p < 0.05). CA-Markov model results for the years 2025, 2035 and 2045 predicted an overall increase in the crop field areas at the expense of woodland and wetland areas. LU/LC modelling results suggest that LU/LC changes modify wetland hydrology which consequently influences wetland areal extent. Trend results for projected rainfall suggest a significant decreasing trend in future rainfall (2016-2100) at p<0.05. In addition, a general decreasing trend in the number of rainy days is projected for the future climate although the significance and magnitude varied with station location. Regional Climate Models projections suggest an increased occurrence of future extreme events particularly towards the end of this century. The findings are important for developing appropriate sustainable and adaptive strategies given climate changes as well as designing catchment level wetland management approaches aimed at sustaining wetland ecosystems for the current and future generations. Any future efforts towards protection of the remaining wetlands should be combined with developing a sustainable relationship between social and ecological systems which will enable communities to adapt to the effects of changing climates.LG201

Forest Management and Water Resources in the Anthropocene

Decades of research has provided a depth of understanding on the relationships among forests and water, and how these relationships change in response to climate variability, disturbance, and forest management. This understanding has facilitated a strong predictive capacity and the development of best management practices to protect water resources with active management. Despite this understanding, the rapid pace of changes in climate, disturbance regimes, invasive species, human population growth, and land use expected in the 21st century is likely to create substantial challenges for watershed management that may require new approaches, models, and best management practices. These challenges are likely to be complex and large scale, involving a combination of direct effects and indirect biophysical watershed responses, as well as socioeconomic impacts and feedbacks. We explore the complex relationships between forests and water in a rapidly changing environment, examine the trade-offs and conflicts between water and other resources, and examine new management approaches for sustaining water resources in the future