Development of Distributed Research Center for analysis of regional climatic and environmental changes

We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes in the Northern extratropical areas. The DRC should provide the specialists working in climate related sciences and decision-makers with accurate and detailed climatic characteristics for the selected area and reliable and affordable tools for their in-depth statistical analysis and studies of the effects of climate change. Within the framework of the project, new approaches to cloud processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) inherent to climate change studies are developed and deployed on technical platforms of both institutions. We discuss here the state of the art in this domain, describe web based information-computational systems developed by the partners, justify the methods chosen to reach the project goal, and briefly list the results obtained so far

Digitalization of climate adaptation planning: the potential of simulation software tools for landscape design

Climate change plays a significant role in the landscape architecture discipline seeking to solve the problems related to floods and heatwaves. Climate adaptation planning deals with a high level of uncertainty while precipitating future climate events to prepare adaptable landscape designs. However, digital technologies are rarely implemented into landscape design projects with deep environmental concerns. Meanwhile, digital tools have the potential to improve climate adaptation planning while calculating and simulating the adaptive capacity of design. Therefore, this research investigates the capabilities and limitations of software tools suitable for climate adaptation projects. The software tools are evaluated using the ISO 25010 framework comparing their capabilities. The main method used for this research is based on objective experiments while implementing different software tools to conceptual landscape design on a case study project. The experiment revealed that the implementation process deals with many limitations including interoperability and data loss. Moreover, this research conducted in-depth interviews with project stakeholders including planners and clients to identify their problems, needs and expectations regarding software tools. Finally, the roadmap on the software selection resulting from this research provides the guidelines on how to select the most suitable tool for various climate adaptation projects

Unlocking Barriers to Adoption and Scaling of Climate Smart Cocoa Practices in Ghana

Cocoa production in West Africa has been adversely affected by climate change at varying degrees. The cocoa farming areas in Ghana vary according to severity in impact of climate change and has been delineated into three climatic impact zones namely; Transform, cope and adjust zones. For years, cocoa industry technical experts have recommended Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs) without considering the different farmer typologies across the climate impact zones. The Consultative Group for international Agricultural Research (CGIAR) through the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) in Ghana recently documented and aligned climate smart cocoa (CSC) practices across the three impact zones to help farmers mitigate against the effect of Climate change. The aim of this study was to identify farmer typologies in the different climate impact zones and how this affect adoption of CSC recommendations. Data was collected using semi-structured questionnaire from 270 cocoa farming household on socio-economic characteristics and intensity of CSC implementation across. Preliminary findings from a principal component analysis using the R software statistical package showed three cluster of Cocoa farmers in the impact zones. The results also show varying intensity of implementation of CSC practices which determines the efficiency of the clusters. The first cluster of cocoa farmers is characterized as the least efficient in production in terms of Cocoa productivity (248.2793 kg/ha) and Cocoa income (USD 981.3244 per annuum) while the second cluster of farmers are the most efficient with the highest cocoa income (USD 3000.309 per annum) and Cocoa productivity (583.6498 kg/ha). The third Cluster represent farmers with the most resources in terms of land under cocoa (3.7 ha) and hired out labor (≃4 people from the household). In all clusters, access to hybrid seedlings, financial challenges and extension service delivery were identified as challenges hindering adoption of CSC recommendation. It is recommended that farmer typologies aligned with CSC recommendations in the climate impact zones should be taken into consideration for effective adoption

Protecting and restoring habitat to help Australia’s threatened species adapt to climate change

Summary for policy makers Australia’s biodiversity is threatened by climate change, but we currently know little about the scale of the threat or how to deploy on ground conservation actions to protect biodiversity against the changes expected. In this project we predict the impacts of climate change for threatened species and delineate the best options for climate adaptation for all these species collectively via protecting and restoring their habitat.For 504 of Australia’s currently threatened species we predict their distributional responses to climate change, under three climate change scenarios of increasing severity: early mitigation, delayed mitigation and business-as-usual. We then simulate the optimal placement of new protected areas and where necessary, restoration of critical habitat for those species most affected by a changing climate, taking into account variation in the costs and benefits of taking action in different places.We measured the benefits of protecting and restoring habitat by considering the long-term availability and quality of habitat for threatened species as climate changes. We undertook a state-of-the-art multi-action optimisation that accounts for spatial and temporal habitat connectivity under climate change. The scale of the prioritisation analysis implemented here is unprecedented in the conservation literature, and is only possible because of recent advances in software sophistication and parallel computer processing power.We discovered that:• Fifty-nine of the 355 threatened plant species and 11 of the 149 threatened animals considered could completely lose their climatically suitable range by 2085 under the most pessimistic (business as usual) climate change scenario, while four plant species face almost certain extinction due to complete loss of suitable range even under the most optimistic mitigation scenario tested.• Climate is predicted to become unsuitable across more than half of their geographic distribution for 310 (61%) of the modelled species under the business-as-usual scenario and for 80 (16%) species under the early mitigation scenario.• For an available budget of $3 billion, protecting an additional 877,415 km2 of intact habitat, and restoring 1,190 km2 of degraded habitat immediately was identified by our analysis as the optimal set of actions to help the 504 threatened species adapt to climate change assuming early mitigation. Under a more pessimistic business-as-usual climate change scenario, 837,914 km2 of protection is required, along with 77 km2 of restoration. In all cases, appropriate threat management within the protected areas is required.• Within the$3 billion budget, optimal allocation of protection focuses on forests and woodland areas of eastern Australia, Northern Territory, the Great Western Woodlands of Western Australia, and southern South Australia. Restoration effort is required mostly in south-eastern Australia.• We tested a range of conservation budgets from $500 million to$8 billion, and found that the spatial pattern of priority does not change dramatically, and that conservation gains do not level off within that range, i.e. that each dollar invested up to at least 8 billion generates additional benefits for threatened species under climate change.Our analysis deals only with threatened species, i.e. those currently most vulnerable to threats including climate change, and while this doesn’t represent all Australian native animals and plants and how they may all be best provided for, these species have great immediate significance for national biodiversity policy.In summary, the 504 threatened species considered in this study require an increase of between 838,077 km2 and 878,590 km2 in areas protected against loss or degradation either through legislation to protect habitat, designation of protected areas, or negotiations of long-lasting voluntary conservation covenants.Please cite this report as: Maggini, R, Kujala, H, Taylor, MFJ, Lee, JR, Possingham, HP, Wintle, BA, Fuller, RA 2013 Protecting and restoring habitat to help Australia’s threatened species adapt to climate change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility,  Gold Coast, pp. 59.Australia’s biodiversity is threatened by climate change, but we currently know little about the scale of the threat or how to deploy on ground conservation actions to protect biodiversity against the changes expected. In this project we predict the impacts of climate change for threatened species and delineate the best options for climate adaptation for all these species collectively via protecting and restoring their habitat.For 504 of Australia’s currently threatened species we predict their distributional responses to climate change, under three climate change scenarios of increasing severity: early mitigation, delayed mitigation and business-as-usual. We then simulate the optimal placement of new protected areas and where necessary, restoration of critical habitat for those species most affected by a changing climate, taking into account variation in the costs and benefits of taking action in different places.We measured the benefits of protecting and restoring habitat by considering the long-term availability and quality of habitat for threatened species as climate changes. We undertook a state-of-the-art multi-action optimisation that accounts for spatial and temporal habitat connectivity under climate change. The scale of the prioritisation analysis implemented here is unprecedented in the conservation literature, and is only possible because of recent advances in software sophistication and parallel computer processing power.We discovered that: Fifty-nine of the 355 threatened plant species and 11 of the 149 threatened animals considered could completely lose their climatically suitable range by 2085 under the most pessimistic (business as usual) climate change scenario, while four plant species face almost certain extinction due to complete loss of suitable range even under the most optimistic mitigation scenario tested.Climate is predicted to become unsuitable across more than half of their geographic distribution for 310 (61%) of the modelled species under the business-as-usual scenario and for 80 (16%) species under the early mitigation scenario.For an available budget of 3 billion, protecting an additional 877,415 km2 of intact habitat, and restoring 1,190 km2 of degraded habitat immediately was identified by our analysis as the optimal set of actions to help the 504 threatened species adapt to climate change assuming early mitigation. Under a more pessimistic business-as-usual climate change scenario, 837,914 km2 of protection is required, along with 77 km2 of restoration. In all cases, appropriate threat management within the protected areas is required.Within the $3 billion budget, optimal allocation of protection focuses on forests and woodland areas of eastern Australia, Northern Territory, the Great Western Woodlands of Western Australia, and southern South Australia. Restoration effort is required mostly in south-eastern Australia.We tested a range of conservation budgets from$500 million to $8 billion, and found that the spatial pattern of priority does not change dramatically, and that conservation gains do not level off within that range, i.e. that each dollar invested up to at least$8 billion generates additional benefits for threatened species under climate change. Our analysis deals only with threatened species, i.e. those currently most vulnerable to threats including climate change, and while this doesn’t represent all Australian native animals and plants and how they may all be best provided for, these species have great immediate significance for national biodiversity policy.In summary, the 504 threatened species considered in this study require an increase of between 838,077 km2 and 878,590 km2 in areas protected against loss or degradation either through legislation to protect habitat, designation of protected areas, or negotiations of long-lasting voluntary conservation covenants.Please cite this report as: Maggini, R, Kujala, H, Taylor, MFJ, Lee, JR, Possingham, HP, Wintle, BA, Fuller, RA 2013 Protecting and restoring habitat to help Australia’s threatened species adapt to climate change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility,  Gold Coast, pp. 59.&nbsp

Analisis Dampak Perubahan Iklim terhadap Produksi Tanaman Pangan pada Lahan Kering dan Rancang Bangun Sistem Informasinya

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events and in the variability of weather patterns will have significant consequences for stability of agricultural system. Research objectives were to a) analyze the Impact of Climate Change on Food Crops in Dryland b) develop a software prototype analysis of the impact of climate change on food production, especially upland rice and maize on dry land; c) create a simulation with multiple scenarios of the impact of climate change on dry land. The study was conducted in South Sulawesi, West Nusatenggara and East Nusatenggara.The activities were carried out by projecting precipitation using scenarios: a) SRESA2 (Scenarios of climate change by assuming economic growth is lower and population growth remains high so the rate of greenhouse gas emissions increased, b) SRESB1 (scenario of climate change by assuming mitigation efforts through expanding efficient use of energy and technology improvements so that the emission levels are lower) and making projections of production of upland rice and maize using Decission Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) as resource information in the preparation of prototype software information Systems Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production (SIDaPi TaPa). The system was built based on the analysis simulation model projections of production output DSSAT. Based on SRES scenarios A2, the decline in rainfall increased until 2050 in several districts, in South Sulawesi, West Nusatenggara and East Nusatenggara.Treatment of adaptation through SRESB1 scenarios could be effective to anticipate a decrease in rainfall in some regions, either in 2025 or 2050. In general, the region experiencing a decrease in rainfall will also decrease in production of both upland rice and maize production. The decline in upland rice production by SRESA2 scenario until 2050 was between 20-25%, and by a scenario adaptation SRESB1 the decline in production could be minimized to only between 7 -10%.The decline in maize production in the plot until 2050 by SRESA2 was between 9-15%, using scenarios to reduce production SRESB1 was only 5-8%. SIDAPI TAPA is a software analysis of the impact of climate change on food production, especially upland rice and maize on dry land in South Sulawesi, West Nusatenggara and East Nusatenggara

Local Community Perceptions on Causes of Climate Change in Dry Areas of Rombo District, Tanzania

The study assessed community perceptions on the causes of climate change in the drought area of Rombo District in Tanzania. Corroboration of the research findings were made by employing different methods of gathering data including questionnaires, focus group discussions and interviews. While quantitative data were analysed by statistical package for social science software to generate descriptive statistics, qualitative data were analysed thematically. Data were mainly presented by using tables, figures and the participants’ narrations or voices. Results indicated varied perceptions on the causes of climate change that are shaped by levels of education, age, sex, marital status and possession of communication facilities. Despite the varied perceptions on the causes of climate change, the anthropogenic factors were frequently mentioned by the study participants. Thus, the study recommends on creating awareness among members of the studied community through education on the actual causes of climate change for effective intervention measures

Major league baseball fans’ climate change attitudes and willingness to adapt: climate vulnerability vs. America’s pastime.

Climate change threatens the ability to enjoy sport around the world, including in the United States. While the scientific community reached consensus regarding the presence and severity of climate change near the turn of the twenty-first century, that same agreement has not been met across the American general public. Major League Baseball (MLB) is particularly vulnerable to climate change in the U.S. due to its season duration, geographic footprint, and largely outdoor nature. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate relationships between U.S.-based MLB fans’ sport identification and their climate change attitudes, perceptions of climate change risk, and willingness to adapt. Specifically, this study sought to advance climate change perception research by focusing on sport fans in a sport context, groups that are understudied in climate change and sport ecology research. Using social identity theory to frame the significance of sport identification, this study aimed to model transitions from cognition to action for MLB fans. Social identity theory served to explain how an individual creates meaning about the world around them, in this instance climate change, by the social groups to which they voluntarily belong, that is sport identification. A cross-sectional survey design was used to address the study’s purpose. The questionnaire was designed and hosted on Qualtrics Survey Software, but distributed as a Human Intelligence Task on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk. The questionnaire contained items to measure fans’ attitudes, general risk perceptions, sport-specific risk perceptions, and willingness to adapt. Participant responses (n = 540) indicated personal experiences with extreme weather most strongly influenced general climate change risk perceptions. Further, responses revealed fans who had general climate change risk perceptions were more likely to have sport-specific risk perceptions. This relationship was not moderated by sport identification, but sport identification did significantly predict sport-specific risk perceptions. Likewise, sport identification did not moderate the relationship between fans’ sport-specific climate change risk perceptions and their willingness to adapt. However, responses revealed fans who perceived climate change risks to the sport were more willing to adapt their behaviors to climate change. As a result of these findings, there were several theoretical and practical implications. Theoretically, although sport identification did not moderate the hypothesized relationships, social identity theory does serve as an avenue to explore the connections between sport fans and the realities of climate change on sport. The overall model structure was supported, indicating the possibility to examine found relationships through additional theoretical lenses. The findings revealed a direct connection between sport consumer behavior research and climate change, opening new avenues for researchers within sport management and climate research. From a practical standpoint, this study found early empirical evidence to support the United Nations’ suggestion that sport fans are critical to engaging in, and accelerating, climate action in the sport sector. Additionally, this study’s findings suggest pro-environmental efforts pertaining to climate adaptation in MLB should include fans, and the UN should invest in educational awareness regarding climate change risks to sport for fans

Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios on the Yukon River Basin

There are indications that the climate is going to experience drastic change in the future, as it has occurred in the past and is currently happening now. Climate simulations have shown some potential hydrologic effects of climate change in the Yukon River Basin due to changes in temperature and precipitation. The Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council currently does not utilize spatial software to manage, analyze, or produce maps of climate change scenarios in the Yukon River basin. It is important to create a geodatabase, determine differences in climate change scenarios, and calculate peak discharge rates in the different regions using geospatial techniques. Climate modeling is one of the best tools available to determine the trends in future climate. In this project, the temperature and precipitation differences for the 20th century (1980-1999) and mid-century (2040-2059), were determined with data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Community Climate System Model (CCSM), indicating a future increase in temperature and precipitation. The U.S. Geological Survey regression equations, basin characteristics, and PythonWin were used to create a Python script and tool to calculate peak discharge rates. The methods used in this project allow it to be easily adapted for future projects in the Yukon River Basin

Framers’ Perception of Climate Change and Time-Series Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature in North-Western Ethiopia

Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable community to climate change in Ethiopia because they are highly dependent on subsistence rain–fed agricultural production system. The aims of this study were to identify the perceptions of farmers on climate change and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in the Gondar Zuria district of northwestern Ethiopia that has been severely affected by climate change stresses. In Ethiopia, studying the time series trends of rainfall and temperature in the context of climate change is crucial. As a result, it is easy to identify and implement better climate change adaptation strategies. Primary data were collected from a randomly selected 121 sample households and purposefully selected ten key informants through questionnaires and interviews. The survey data was analyzed using SPSS software version 21, XLSTAT software and excel spreadsheet. The variability and trend analysis were conducted from downloaded Gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data from free online climate explorer Which is Global Precipitation and Climate Centre (GPCC V7) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS 3.23) with 0.5 by 0.5 resolution from 1980 to 2013 respectively. Climate variable data have analyzed by using a precipitation concentration index, anomaly index, coefficient of variation and simple linear regression. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the time series trend. The result revealed that the mean maximum temperature had an increasing trend through time significantly. But the trend for mean minimum temperature showed a non-significant increasing trend during the period of 1980–2013. Whereas, the rainfall showed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend in the main rain (summer) season. While there was an inter-annual variability in the amount of Belg season rainfall and it showed an increasing trend. The result revealed that farmers perceive changes in temperature and rainfall over the past 30 years. The Gondar Zuria district is characterized by a semi-arid climate and hence, received low and erratic rainfall during the summer season. Therefore, we recommend possible adaptation strategies designed for climate change particularly rain-fed agriculture economic dependent countries should give emphasis for the increasing trend of temperature and the decreasing and unreliable nature of rainfall. Keywords: Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall, temperature, farmers perception, Gondar Zuria District DOI: 10.7176/JRDM/90-02 Publication date: January 31st 2023