What is the Connection Between Issues, Bugs, and Enhancements? (Lessons Learned from 800+ Software Projects)

Agile teams juggle multiple tasks so professionals are often assigned to multiple projects, especially in service organizations that monitor and maintain a large suite of software for a large user base. If we could predict changes in project conditions changes, then managers could better adjust the staff allocated to those projects.This paper builds such a predictor using data from 832 open source and proprietary applications. Using a time series analysis of the last 4 months of issues, we can forecast how many bug reports and enhancement requests will be generated next month. The forecasts made in this way only require a frequency count of this issue reports (and do not require an historical record of bugs found in the project). That is, this kind of predictive model is very easy to deploy within a project. We hence strongly recommend this method for forecasting future issues, enhancements, and bugs in a project.Comment: Accepted to 2018 International Conference on Software Engineering, at the software engineering in practice track. 10 pages, 10 figure

Handbook of Computational Intelligence in Manufacturing and Production Management

Artificial intelligence (AI) is simply a way of providing a computer or a machine to think intelligently like human beings. Since human intelligence is a complex abstraction, scientists have only recently began to understand and make certain assumptions on how people think and to apply these assumptions in order to design AI programs. It is a vast knowledge base discipline that covers reasoning, machine learning, planning, intelligent search, and perception building. Traditional AI had the limitations to meet the increasing demand of search, optimization, and machine learning in the areas of large, biological, and commercial database information systems and management of factory automation for different industries such as power, automobile, aerospace, and chemical plants. The drawbacks of classical AI became more pronounced due to successive failures of the decade long Japanese project on fifth generation computing machines. The limitation of traditional AI gave rise to development of new computational methods in various applications of engineering and management problems. As a result, these computational techniques emerged as a new discipline called computational intelligence (CI)

Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks

In this paper artificial neural networks (ANN) are addressed in order the Greek long-term energy consumption to be predicted. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) has been used for this purpose by testing several possible architectures in order to be selected the one with the best generalizing ability. Actual recorded input and output data that influence long-term energy consumption were used in the training, validation and testing process. The developed ANN model is used for the prediction of 2005-2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015 Greek energy consumption. The produced ANN results for years 2005-2008 were compared with the results produced by a linear regression method, a support vector machine method and with real energy consumption records showing a great accuracy. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, since accurate predictions of energy consumption affect the capital investment, the environmental quality, the revenue analysis, the market research management, while conserve at the same time the supply security. Furthermore it constitutes an accurate tool for the Greek long-term energy consumption prediction problem, which up today has not been faced effectively

A brief network analysis of Artificial Intelligence publication

In this paper, we present an illustration to the history of Artificial Intelligence(AI) with a statistical analysis of publish since 1940. We collected and mined through the IEEE publish data base to analysis the geological and chronological variance of the activeness of research in AI. The connections between different institutes are showed. The result shows that the leading community of AI research are mainly in the USA, China, the Europe and Japan. The key institutes, authors and the research hotspots are revealed. It is found that the research institutes in the fields like Data Mining, Computer Vision, Pattern Recognition and some other fields of Machine Learning are quite consistent, implying a strong interaction between the community of each field. It is also showed that the research of Electronic Engineering and Industrial or Commercial applications are very active in California. Japan is also publishing a lot of papers in robotics. Due to the limitation of data source, the result might be overly influenced by the number of published articles, which is to our best improved by applying network keynode analysis on the research community instead of merely count the number of publish.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figure

FORECASTING MODEL OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION USING LEAST SQUARES SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES

In the oil and gas industry, accurate measurement of gas is a very important aspect for the gas transmission operation. The outgoing gas flow during the transmission operation is monitored and maintained by a metering system. The metering system must be ensured reliable and dependable at all cost to maintain the billing integrity between distributors and customers. The main concern is products sold and returned as money worth product to seller and buyer. An existing system in Transmission Operation Division (TOD), PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Gurun is held responsible to calculate the energy consumption from the sales gas produced. The system consists of a turbine meter, measuring equipment which are pressure transmitter and temperature transmitter, gas chromatography and flow computer. However, the system is a standalone system that does not have any reference system to verify the integrity of it. Customers are billed according to the amount of energy consumption calculated and any error in calculation will cause loss of profit to the company and affect PETRONAS’s business credibility. As a solution, a Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM) prediction model of energy consumption is proposed as a verification system of the outgoing gas flow. The model will predict the energy consumption and compare it with the results of the existing metering system to ensure the reliability and accuracy of the system. The billing integrity between PETRONAS and the customers could be maintained and in the future if the project is expanded, it will have the potential of saving of millions of dollars to Malaysian oil and gas companies

Software Reliability Prediction using Fuzzy Min-Max Algorithm and Recurrent Neural Network Approach

Fuzzy Logic (FL) together with Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) is used to predict the software reliability. Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm is used to optimize the number of the kgaussian nodes in the hidden layer and delayed input neurons. The optimized recurrentneural network is used to dynamically reconfigure in real-time as actual software failure. In this work, an enhanced fuzzy min-max algorithm together with recurrent neural network based machine learning technique is explored and a comparative analysis is performed for the modeling of reliability prediction in software systems. The model has been applied on data sets collected across several standard software projects during system testing phase with fault removal. The performance of our proposed approach has been tested using distributed system application failure data set

A Novel Hybrid Method of Parameters Tuning in Support Vector Regression for Reliability Prediction: Particle Swarm Optimization Combined With Analytical Selection

Support vector regression (SVR) is a widely used technique for reliability prediction. The key issue for high prediction accuracy is the selection of SVR parameters, which is essentially an optimization problem. As one of the most effective evolutionary optimization methods, particle swarm optimization (PSO) has been successfully applied to tune SVR parameters and is shown to perform well. However, the inherent drawbacks of PSO, including slow convergence and local optima, have hindered its further application in practical reliability prediction problems. To overcome these drawbacks, many improvement strategies are being developed on the mechanisms of PSO, whereas there is little research exploring a priori information about historical data to improve the PSO performance in the SVR parameter selection task. In this paper, a novel method controlling the inertial weight of PSO is proposed to accelerate its convergence and guide the evolution out of local optima, by utilizing the analytical selection (AS) method based on a priori knowledge about SVR parameters. Experimental results show that the proposed ASPSO method is almost as accurate as the traditional PSO and outperforms it in convergence speed and ability in tuning SVR parameters. Therefore, the proposed ASPSO-SVR shows promising results for practical reliability prediction tasks

Neural Network with Genetic Algorithm Prediction Model of Energy Consumption for Billing Integrity in Gas Pipeline

Along the development of oil and gas industry, missing data is one of the contributors that restrains in analyzing and processing data task in database. By monitoring and maintaining using metering system, the reliability and billing integrity can be ensured and trustworthy can be developed between distributors and customers. In this context, PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB) as a gas distributor and an existing system in Nur Metering Station, Kulim is held responsible to evaluate the energy consumption from the sales gas produced. The system is standalone that consists of measuring equipment including pressure transmitter and temperature transmitter, turbine meter, gas chromatography and flow computer but does not have any reference system to verify its integrity. Customers are being charge according to the amount of energy consumption calculated and any error in calculation will cause loss of profit to the company and affect PETRONAS’s business credibility. In the future, it is such a vital to have an ideal analysis in order to maintain the sustainability. In this paper, several techniques will be discuss and selected including neural network prediction model, least square vector regression and combination of either two methods mentioned before with genetic algorithm as preferable technique to indicate the missing data. The model that has been selected based on its evaluation will predict the missing data and compare it with the results of the existing metering system to ensure the reliability and accuracy of the system. The billing integrity between oil and gas company especially PETRONAS and the customers could be maintained and in the future if the project is expanded, it will have the potential of saving of millions of dollars to Malaysian oil and gas companies

Towards a cyber physical system for personalised and automatic OSA treatment

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a breathing disorder that takes place in the course of the sleep and is produced by a complete or a partial obstruction of the upper airway that manifests itself as frequent breathing stops and starts during the sleep. The real-time evaluation of whether or not a patient is undergoing OSA episode is a very important task in medicine in many scenarios, as for example for making instantaneous pressure adjustments that should take place when Automatic Positive Airway Pressure (APAP) devices are used during the treatment of OSA. In this paper the design of a possible Cyber Physical System (CPS) suited to real-time monitoring of OSA is described, and its software architecture and possible hardware sensing components are detailed. It should be emphasized here that this paper does not deal with a full CPS, rather with a software part of it under a set of assumptions on the environment. The paper also reports some preliminary experiments about the cognitive and learning capabilities of the designed CPS involving its use on a publicly available sleep apnea database

Development of a power monitoring and control system to provide demand side management of electric vehicle charging activity.

Due to the recent inflow of Electric Vehicles (EVs) to the automobile market, new concerns have risen with respect to the additional electrical load and the resultant effects on an overloaded electric grid. Either for convenience purposes or possibly necessity due to limited electric range on EVs, some EV owners may desire to charge their EV while at work in addition to charging at home. These forward-thinking daytime charging providers are typically Commercial and Industrial (C&I) electric ratepayers, or other large electric consumers which constitute the majority of businesses, shopping centers, academic campuses and manufacturing facilities. Increased electricity consumption due to EV charging activity results in higher electricity costs due to differences in the billing structures between residential and C&I electric ratepayers. Therefore, it is beneficial to the EVSE charging provider to minimize charging activity around peak demand periods which would result in lower electrical costs overall. A solution is developed that can provide this control without creating a nuisance to electric vehicle owners since EV charging demand is somewhat inelastic due to range anxiety. The primary objective of the research detailed in this dissertation is to develop a novel demand side management system for monitoring the peak demand of commercial time-of-day electric ratepayers that cost effectively predicts and controls electric vehicle charging during peak demand periods. This objective is achieved, therefore confirming the hypothesis that such a system can provide cost and demand benefits to forward-thinking commercial electric ratepayers that provide daytime charging capabilities. This work proposes and evaluates a novel Power Monitoring and Control System (PMCS) that can be implemented at C&I EV charging locations to minimize or eliminate the negative impacts of charging electric vehicles at the workplace in C&I environments. Operation of the PMCS begins by forecasting electrical demand in advance of every 15 minute demand interval throughout the day. The forecast is generated using an artificial neural network and a number of input data streams. Electrical demand has been shown to correlate well with weather data such as temperature and dew point. Therefore, using those measurements along with a date and time stamp, and historical electrical demand measurements, a highly accurate forecast for the following 15-minute demand interval was achieved. From that forecast, the number of EV charging stations that may be active, without the chance of creating new electrical demand peaks, is calculated. Finally, the forecast is then used to properly schedule EV charging activity so that electrical demand peaks can be avoided but charging activity is maximized. The avoidance of charging activity at or near peaks in electrical demand results in lower total electric costs associated with the charging process. The final design was implemented in an EV charging testbed at the University of Louisville and data was collected to verify the operation and performance of the PMCS. With a properly designed scheduling and prioritization control algorithm, increases in electrical demand and associated costs are limited to the error in the forecasting algorithm used for predicting electrical demand levels. The final design of the forecasting algorithm results in a mean absolute percent error of 0.02% to 0.08% in the electrical demand forecast. This corresponds to approximately 3 to 10 kVA of error in electrical demand. Taking this error into account, total cost of charging several EVs is reduced by nearly 90%. Furthermore, for scenarios where there are several more electric vehicles requiring charge than there are charging stations available, several scheduling algorithms are presented in an attempt to minimize the total processing time required for completing all charging transactions