D R A F T Smooth Conditional Transition Paths in Dynamical Gaussian Networks

Abstract. We propose an algorithm for determining optimal transition paths between given configurations of systems consisting of many objects. It is based on the Principle of Least Action and variational equations for Freidlin-Wentzell action functionals in Gaussian networks set-up. We use our method to construct a system controlling motion and redeployment between unit's formations. Another application of the algorithm allows a realistic transformation between two sequences of character animations in a virtual environment. The efficiency of the algorithm has been evaluated in a simple sandbox environment implemented with the use of the NVIDIA CUDA technology

Emulating dynamic non-linear simulators using Gaussian processes

The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models of the climate or the functioning of the human brain. The models we are interested in are highly non-linear and exhibit tipping points, bifurcations and chaotic behaviour. However, each simulation run could be too time-consuming to perform analyses that require many runs, including quantifying the variation in model output with respect to changes in the inputs. Therefore, Gaussian process emulators are used to approximate the output of the code. To do this, the flow map of the system under study is emulated over a short time period. Then, it is used in an iterative way to predict the whole time series. A number of ways are proposed to take into account the uncertainty of inputs to the emulators, after fixed initial conditions, and the correlation between them through the time series. The methodology is illustrated with two examples: the highly non-linear dynamical systems described by the Lorenz and Van der Pol equations. In both cases, the predictive performance is relatively high and the measure of uncertainty provided by the method reflects the extent of predictability in each system

State and parameter estimation using Monte Carlo evaluation of path integrals

Transferring information from observations of a dynamical system to estimate the fixed parameters and unobserved states of a system model can be formulated as the evaluation of a discrete time path integral in model state space. The observations serve as a guiding potential working with the dynamical rules of the model to direct system orbits in state space. The path integral representation permits direct numerical evaluation of the conditional mean path through the state space as well as conditional moments about this mean. Using a Monte Carlo method for selecting paths through state space we show how these moments can be evaluated and demonstrate in an interesting model system the explicit influence of the role of transfer of information from the observations. We address the question of how many observations are required to estimate the unobserved state variables, and we examine the assumptions of Gaussianity of the underlying conditional probability.Comment: Submitted to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 19 pages, 5 figure

Invariant Manifolds and Rate Constants in Driven Chemical Reactions

Reaction rates of chemical reactions under nonequilibrium conditions can be determined through the construction of the normally hyperbolic invariant manifold (NHIM) [and moving dividing surface (DS)] associated with the transition state trajectory. Here, we extend our recent methods by constructing points on the NHIM accurately even for multidimensional cases. We also advance the implementation of machine learning approaches to construct smooth versions of the NHIM from a known high-accuracy set of its points. That is, we expand on our earlier use of neural nets, and introduce the use of Gaussian process regression for the determination of the NHIM. Finally, we compare and contrast all of these methods for a challenging two-dimensional model barrier case so as to illustrate their accuracy and general applicability.Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures, table of contents figur

Stable resonances and signal propagation in a chaotic network of coupled units

We apply the linear response theory developed in \cite{Ruelle} to analyze how a periodic signal of weak amplitude, superimposed upon a chaotic background, is transmitted in a network of non linearly interacting units. We numerically compute the complex susceptibility and show the existence of specific poles (stable resonances) corresponding to the response to perturbations transverse to the attractor. Contrary to the poles of correlation functions they depend on the pair emitting/receiving units. This dynamic differentiation, induced by non linearities, exhibits the different ability that units have to transmit a signal in this network.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, to appear in Phys. rev.