Global Physics: From Percolation to Terrorism, Guerilla Warfare and Clandestine Activities

The September 11 attack on the US has revealed an unprecedented terrorism with worldwide range of destruction. It is argued to result from the first worldwide percolation of passive supporters. They are people sympathetic to the terrorism cause but without being involved with it. They just don't oppose it in case they could. This scheme puts suppression of the percolation as the major strategic issue in the fight against terrorism. Acting on the population is shown to be useless. Instead a new strategic scheme is suggested to increase the terrorism percolation threshold and in turn suppress the percolation. The relevant associated space is identified as a multi-dimensional social space including both the ground earth surface and all various independent flags displayed by the terrorist group. Some hints are given on how to shrink the geographical spreading of terrorism threat. The model apply to a large spectrum of clandestine activities including guerilla warfare as well as tax evasion, corruption, illegal gambling, illegal prostitution and black markets.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, Proceedings of the International Workshop Randomness And Complexity in honor of Shlomo Havlin's 60th birthday held in January 2003, Eilat, Israe

From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

Even before 9/11 there were claims that the nature of war had changed fundamentally. The 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary wars and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars, both of which exhibit remarkable regularities. The frequency-intensity distribution of fatalities in "old wars", 1816-1980, is a power-law with exponent 1.80. Global terrorist attacks, 1968-present, also follow a power-law with exponent 1.71 for G7 countries and 2.5 for non-G7 countries. Here we analyze two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq. Our analysis uses our own unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq. We show strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war. Despite substantial differences in contexts and data coverage, the power-law coefficients for both wars are tending toward 2.5, which is a value characteristic of non-G7 terrorism as opposed to old wars. We propose a plausible yet analytically-solvable model of modern insurgent warfare, which can explain these observations.Comment: For more information, please contact [email protected] or [email protected]

From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

The 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary wars and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars, both of which exhibit remarkable regularities. The frequency-intensity distribution of fatalities in "old wars", 1816-1980, is a power-law with exponent 1.80. Global terrorist attacks, 1968-present, also follow a power-law with exponent 1.71 for G7 countries and 2.5 for non-G7 countries. Here we analyze two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq. Our analysis uses our own unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq. We show strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war. Despite substantial differences in contexts and data coverage, the power-law coefficients for both wars are tending toward 2.5, which is a value characteristic of non-G7 terrorism as opposed to old wars. We propose a plausible yet analytically-solvable model of modern insurgent warfare, which can explain these observations.

Discrete Deterministic Modelling of Autonomous Missiles Salvos

The paper deals with mathematical models of sequent salvos battle, of autonomous flight missiles (AFM) organized in the groups of combatants. Tactical integration of AFM system distance-controlled weapon is considered by performances of simultaneous approaches on targets, and continual battle models of guerilla and direct fire, are redesigned to the discrete-continual mixed model, for checking missiles sudden, and further salvos, attack effects. Superiority parameters, as well as losses and strengths of full, or the part of salvo battle, for the missiles groups as technology sub-systems combatants’, is expressed by mathematical and simulation examples. Targets engagements capacities of the missiles battle unit, is conducted through designed scenarios and mathematically derived in the research. Model orientated on answers about employment of rapid reaction defending tactics, by distance missiles attacks.Defence Science Journal, Vol. 64, No. 5, September 2014, pp.471-476, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.64.579

Development of a Methodology for Evaluating and Anticipating Improvised Explosive Device Threat Activity Using a Fault Tree Based Process

This document is a redacted version of the original dissertation titled \u27Development of a Methodology for Evaluating and Anticipating Improvised Explosive Device Threat Activity Using a Fault Tree Based Process.\u27 To allow for publication, information was removed which was considered sensitive in nature or which could be used by those who employ the Improvised Explosive Device, to negate any advantage gained by this research. The complete un-redacted dissertation is available (with proper vetting) to those whishing to further develop the concepts outlined in this document. Those interested in obtaining access to the complete document should contact the Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO). To date there is little published evidence to believe that a sufficient IED threat prediction capability has been developed. Most of the countermeasures seen on the battlefield today are reactive in nature designed to neutralize the effects of a device before it causes injury to military and civilian personnel. These countermeasures have meet with varying levels of success. An efficient threat prediction capability will significantly increase the ability of military forces to eliminate the threat associated with the IED. The lack of an accurate threat prediction capability is a possible result of not having identified all of the variables or the variable relationships associated with IED placement. This research analyzes the variables associated with an IED incident and develops an IED threat prediction process using the Fault Tree model. This dissertation also explores the use of visualization software to determine their suitability in C-IED operations. Furthermore, the application of a Fault Tree based process as a decision support tool for use by decision makers involved in C-IED operations is analyzed. This research is conducted in three phases with the first phase dedicated to the development of a Fault Tree diagram representing an IED incident. During this phase a complete Fault Tree is constructed identifying, sequencing, and establishing relationships between all variable associated with a successful IED attack against a military vehicle operating on a road. The second phase outlines the development of a complete process intended to serve as an operational guide for those attempting to employ the concepts addressed. To ensure a more precise understanding of the required procedures, a theoretical case study was used to articulate and demonstrate the requisite activities. Through this research, events were identified as required for an effective attack to take place. Through the integration of the Fault Tree, probability information and visualization assets a threat prediction capability is demonstrated. The ability to predict IED activity will provide military personnel a distinct advantage in defeating the IED threat and directly contribute to the increased safety of military and civilian personnel living and operating in an IED environment

Fighting the Naval Hegemon: Evolution in French, Soviet, and Chinese Naval Thought

Geography gives strategy its context. Secure from land invasion, Great Brit- ain and later the United States employed a distinctive form of sea power to defeat their adversaries. Both used their navies to control sea-lanes and vital choke points and to apply direct pressure along enemy coastlines. Through their dominance of the oceans they were able to shape the political and economic order of the world. It is fair to say that what amounts to the Anglo-American school of naval power has demonstrated its efficacy time after time: over the past 250 years these two powers have, singly or together, and always with other allies, defeated every opponent that has attempted to change that order

It Pays to Be Popular: a Study of Civilian Assistance and Guerilla Warfare

This paper presents a study into the benefits imparted by friendly civilian populaces in assisting peacekeepers to conduct operations under the threat of guerrilla warfare. In this study, civilians report observed insurgent activity to peacekeepers with varying levels of enthusiasm depending on the reputation of the peacekeepers with the local populace. A simulation model is developed using an agent-based approach and a statistically significant number of Monte Carlo simulations conducted to measure the success of the peacekeeping operations and the benefits of civilian assistance.Peacekeeping, Insurgency, Agent-Based

SOF’S ROLE IN STRATEGIC COMPETITION: A WARGAME

Includes Supplementary MaterialCan a wargame effectively model how Special Operation Forces’ (SOF) irregular warfare capabilities influence strategic competition, and more broadly, do wargames have a place in the education of SOF professionals? SOF needs educational tools that stimulate critical thinking and intellectual creativity to address the challenges and complexities of irregular warfare and strategic competition so they can maintain their position as the DOD’s premier option for irregular warfare. Educational wargames have an extensive history in professional military organizations, and the wargame Tears of Tyranny is ready for use now to educate joint SOF on irregular warfare at the tactical and operational levels. Further development of Tears of Tyranny should include digitization and refinement through an additional capstone team.Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

“Catching Sight of the Permanent Possibility of War:” Images of Totality and Words of Peace

In Totality and Infinity (1969), a landmark critique of the Western philosophical tradition, Emmanuel Levinas poses the provocative question: Does not lucidity, the mind\u27s openness on the true, consist in catching sight of the permanent possibility of war (21)? Levinas asks, in other words, whether knowledge of the truth as truth has been seen” in the western philosophical tradition? is in some fundamental way related to the war