Panic, irrationality, herding: Three ambiguous terms in crowd dynamics research

Background: The three terms “panic”, “irrationality” and “herding” are ubiquitous in the crowd dynamics literature and have a strong influence on both modelling and management practices. The terms are also commonly shared between the scientific and non-scientific domains. The pervasiveness of the use of these terms is to the point where their underlying assumptions have often been treated as common knowledge by both experts and lay persons. Yet, at the same time, the literature on crowd dynamics presents ample debate, contradiction and inconsistency on these topics. Method: This review is the first to systematically revisit these three terms in a unified study to highlight the scope of this debate. We extracted from peer-reviewed journal articles direct quotes that offer a definition, conceptualisation or supporting/contradicting evidence on these terms and/or their underlying theories. To further examine the suitability of the term herding, a secondary and more detailed analysis is also conducted on studies that have specifically investigated this phenomenon in empirical settings. Results. The review shows that (i) there is no consensus on the definition for the terms panic and irrationality; and that (ii) the literature is highly divided along discipline lines on how accurate these theories/terminologies are for describing human escape behaviour. The review reveals a complete division and disconnection between studies published by social scientists and those from the physical science domain; also, between studies whose main focus is on numerical simulation versus those with empirical focus. (iii) Despite the ambiguity of the definitions and the missing consensus in the literature, these terms are still increasingly and persistently mentioned in crowd evacuation studies. (iv) Different to panic and irrationality, there is relative consistency in definitions of the term herding, with the term usually being associated with ‘(blind) imitation’. However, based on the findings of empirical studies, we argue why, despite the relative consistency in meaning, (v) the term herding itself lacks adequate nuance and accuracy for describing the role of ‘social influence’ in escape behaviour. Our conclusions also emphasise the importance of distinguishing between the social influence on various aspects of evacuation behaviour and avoiding generalisation across various behavioural layers. Conclusions. We argue that the use of these three terms in the scientific literature does not contribute constructively to extending the knowledge or to improving the modelling capabilities in the field of crowd dynamics. This is largely due to the ambiguity of these terms, the overly simplistic nature of their assumptions, or the fact that the theories they represent are not readily verifiable. Recommendations: We suggest that it would be beneficial for advancing this research field that the phenomena related to these three terms are clearly defined by more tangible and quantifiable terms and be formulated as verifiable hypotheses, so they can be operationalised for empirical testing

Understanding Social-Force Model in Psychological Principles of Collective Behavior

To well understand crowd behavior, microscopic models have been developed in recent decades, in which an individual's behavioral/psychological status can be modeled and simulated. A well-known model is the social-force model innovated by physical scientists (Helbing and Molnar, 1995; Helbing, Farkas and Vicsek, 2000; Helbing et al., 2002). This model has been widely accepted and mainly used in simulation of crowd evacuation in the past decade. A problem, however, is that the testing results of the model were not explained in consistency with the psychological findings, resulting in misunderstanding of the model by psychologists. This paper will bridge the gap between psychological studies and physical explanation about this model. We reinterpret this physics-based model from a psychological perspective, clarifying that the model is consistent with psychological theories on stress, including time-related stress and interpersonal stress. Based on the conception of stress, we renew the model at both micro-and-macro level, referring to multi-agent simulation in a microscopic sense and fluid-based analysis in a macroscopic sense. The cognition and behavior of individual agents are critically modeled as response to environmental stimuli. Existing simulation results such as faster-is-slower effect will be reinterpreted by Yerkes-Dodson law, and herding and grouping effect are further discussed by integrating attraction into the social force. In brief the social-force model exhibits a bridge between the physics laws and psychological principles regarding crowd motion, and this paper will renew and reinterpret the model on the foundation of psychological studies.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figur

Matkustajalaivan evakuoinnin mallintaminen matkustajan näkökulmasta

Current passenger ship evacuation modelling is mostly based on mechanical simulation, which tends to ignore passengers as active agents. However, maritime safety doesn’t concern only the technical side of ship safety and more attention should be paid to the appropriate interaction between environment and people under emergency. This is important because, human survival depends on their perception and interpretation of the environmental and societal cues. Comparing and contrasting the subjective perception of passenger with the physical environment helps us understand the safety environment more comprehensively during an accident. Therefore, this study uses passenger ship accident investigation reports to map environmental factors, which have an impact on human behaviour under emergency. Current research revealed that in emergency people trust more in their own perceptions and intuition than given instructions. Human behaviour is guided by instinctual urge to get away from the danger, while rational thinking needed in way finding is secondary. Fur- thermore, if there’s a lack in safety instructions people tend to follow each other’s, which often results crowding in places that should be untrammelled in order to ensure efficient evacuation. Current evacuation modelling doesn’t consider human-environment interaction in acceptable level and given insight to affect of the human cognition on the evacuation process can be used to develop evacuation analysis onwards.Nykyinen evakuiontimallinnus perustuu matemaattiseen mallintamiseen, missä ihminen on ympäristössään passiivinen toimija. Tarkastellessamme turvallisuutta, huomiota tulisi kiinnittää ihmisen ja ympäristön välisen vuorovaikutuksen sujuvuuteen. Se, miten hyvin ja tehokkaasti kykenemme tulkitsemaan ympäristön tarjoamia vihjeitä sekä hyödyntämään niitä omassa toiminnassamme,vaikuttavat selviytymiseemme hätätilanteessa. Tutkielmassa kartoitetaan onnettomuusraporteista ihmisen toimintaan vaikuttaneita ympäristöllisiä ja sosiaalisia tekijöitä. Tarkastelemalla yhteyttä ihmisen subjektiivisen käsityksen ja todellisen ympäristön välillä, voimme muodostaa kuvan siitä, millä tavalla ihminen kokee ympäristönsä onnettomuustilanteessa. Tutkimus paljasti, että ihminen luottaa onnettomuustilanteessa omiin vaistoihinsa ja havaintoihinsa ympäristöstä. Ihmisen toimintaa ohjaa vaistonvarainen halu päästä turvaan ja tässä tilanteessa ihmisen rationaalinen käyttäytyminen on toissijaista. Miehistön opastuksen ja informaation puuttuessa, ihmiset seuraavat toistensa käyttäytymistä ja toimintaa, joka usein johtaa ruuhkien muodostumiseen paikoissa, jotka turvallisuussyistä tulisi pitää vapaina. Tutkimustulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että nykymallinnus ei huomioi riittävällä tasolla ihmisen ja ympäristön välistä vuorovaikutusta. Ihminen on ympäristössään aktiivinen toimija, jonka kognitiiviset ominaisuudet, kuten havainnointi ja päätöksenteon prosessit vaikuttavat evakuointiprosesssiin merkittävästi. Kehittääksemme mallinnusta vastaamaan kohti todellista onnettomuustilannetta, ihmisen kognitiiviset ominaisuudet tulisi huomioida ja liittää osaksi laivan evakuointimallinnusta

Mass evacuation - human behavior and crowd dynamics - What do we know?

The field of mass evacuation has existed for a long time. Already during the Roman Empire era evacuation problematic was considered. In modern times the field has gained more attention during the last couple of decades, especially for sports grounds and stadiums. Through analysis of some well-known historical crowd disasters and through a literature survey the aim has been to compile the most important findings. The aim has also been to analyze problem areas, knowledge and development opportunities. Regarding the problems of mass evacuation, preventive measures like design and contingency plan is of high importance. In addition there is a need for good communication and to take proper actions when an accident occurs. Some phenomenon that may arise during crowded situations have been found. These phenomenon are an indication that a catastrophic situation might emerge. With knowledge and understanding of those the expectation is, with the help of live video recordings and simulation softwares, to get a warning about the elevated risk for the crowd

Use of behavioral theories for the interpretation of human behavior in the Costa Concordia disaster

The Costa Concordia disaster represents one of the most dramatic ship evacuations of recent years. This thesis constitutes a case study of the Costa Concordia disaster, in an attempt to identify behaviors among the evacuees that may have contributed in reducing the effectiveness of the evacuation procedures. Publicly available material – such as reports from the media, survivor accounts and scientific investigations – was critically analyzed, and current behavioral models were used to interpret the behaviors identified

Passengers' likely behaviour based on demographic difference during an emergency evacuation in a Ro-Ro passenger ship

By examining the characteristics of passengers on a ship route between the Shandong and Liaodong Peninsula, through a questionnaire survey, this paper aims to address the likely behaviours of passengers during emergency evacuation and the demographic differences among these behaviours. A questionnaire survey of 1380 passengers shows that passengers on board are more alert and are more likely to proactively respond to evacuation alarms (62.5%), observe others’ actions (59.1%), follow evacuation instructions (67.9%), obey the crew (66.2%), queue patiently (63%), return to the cabin when their families are left behind (65.1%), and be cooperative (59%) rather than competitive (44%). The multinomial logistic regression results show that passengers who are older, with limited mobility, that have more experience aboard ships and are part of a larger group, will be more likely to proactively confirm the authenticity of evacuation events. Men, elderly individuals, people who are part of a larger group and with less experience in evacuation education are more likely to follow others. When the family is left behind, elderly individuals and people who are part of a larger group are much more likely to choose to return to their cabins. Similarly, elderly passengers with larger groups are much more likely to choose to help others. Although questionnaire research has some limitations, such as a hypothetical response and closed questions, the research results are of great significance for helping passenger ship managers to develop appropriate management rules, and conduct effective evacuation education activities

Intuitive and rational approaches to decision making in education

The key question that this research focuses on is: How do head teachers make decisions? In addition, there are a range of sub questions that are worthy of consideration within the remit of this study. What strategies do head teachers use in making decisions? How do factors such as accountability, metrics, complexity and uncertainty affect decision making? What is the impact of experience on decision making? Does increased accountability lead to a greater choice of rational or intuitive decision making strategies? To what extent do head teachers rely on their "gut feelings" in making decisions? What mix of rational and intuitive strategies do head teachers use in making decisions and do head teachers make use of their staff to explore different perceptions and frames?In considering what is the best research approach to answer these questions, reference can be made to a new branch of research known as Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) which has arisen over the past fifteen years. The proponents of NDM have questioned both the application and validity of the rational methods. One of the major proponents of this approach is Gary Klein who has undertaken research into decision making within a wide range of professional domains such as fire fighting, health and the armed forces. His research (1999) suggests that, in real life situations, experts employ a range of strategies very different from the oft espoused rational models of decision making. Instead they habitually use strategies that rely very heavily on domain specific knowledge developed through extensive experience. They do not involve the generation of alternative options but rather use perception and mental simulations, for example, as tools for decision making. The decision making strategies that experts employ mark them out from novices and can perhaps give us an insight into the acquisition of expertise. In this thesis the application of NDM to the work of primary head teachers will be considered.In chapter one the relationship between education leadership, accountability and decision making will be explored making reference to the many changes that have influenced and created the current educational context. The extent to which decision making strategies may be influenced by the context in which they are made will also be considered.In chapter two an overview of theoretical approaches to decision making will be provided, drawing out the many distinctions between rationalistic methods and what can be termed "intuitive" methods such as those "discovered" by NDM. The relationship and tension between rationalistic and intuitive approaches to decision making will be considered. This will involve exploring the well worn battleground between these two age old competing ideologies within Western civilisation: "Traditionally, two forms of cognition analysis and intuition have been distinguished. This sharp dichotomy was made early; indeed, it is as old as the history of thought. Plato, Aristotle, Hume, and Kant all recognized that the difference between the two forms of cognition is fundamental. Even today, almost every study of human judgment employs these concepts, implicitly or explicitly" (Hammond, 1996, p.60).A definition of "intuitive" and "rational" will be provided in this chapter and will be used throughout the thesis to highlight the differences between these two approaches.Chapter three will give a detailed account and critique of the work of Gary Klein discussing the model of decision making he has developed and his ideas on recognition, mental simulations, stories, decisions within teams and decision making mistakes.Chapters four and five will consider research methodology and the practical application of research to this thesis. Details of how the research was conducted, head teachers recruited and interviewed and basic data analysis will be described. Chapter six will provide a quantitative analysis of the interview data to provide the reader with a context for understanding and judging the research findings.Chapter seven is at the heart of this research project. Here the qualitative analysis of the research data will be outlined using substantial quotations from the interview transcripts to enhance credibility and ensure that the findings are truly grounded in the research evidence. Issues such as accountability, working with staff and, most importantly, head teachers' preferred decision making styles will be discussed and illuminated.Chapter eight will then summarise the main findings of the research and discuss possible implications arising from the findings including a description of decision making to aid our understanding of this subject.A postscript will retrospectively consider the work of Klein in the light of this research as well as provide a reflection on the research process

Disinformation and Fact-Checking in Contemporary Society

Funded by the European Media and Information Fund and research project PID2022-142755OB-I00

Common Crowd Dynamics: Shaping Behavioral Intention Models

As the human population grows, so too does the need to understand human behavior. One particularly important aspect of human behavior is how it changes within conglomerations of people, i.e. crowds. In this thesis, a method for modeling crowd behavior is proposed. This method draws inspiration from the concept of behavioral intention and the related forces of attitudes, influences, and social norms. These topics are first defined and detailed, followed by a survey of related research. Next, the model is presented and adapted to three common crowd dynamics, each stressing a different component of behavioral intention. Observations are made about these models, and extensions to the models and directions for future research are considered