Coupled, Physics-Based Modeling Reveals Earthquake Displacements are Critical to the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi Tsunami

The September 2018, Mw 7.5 Sulawesi earthquake occurring on the Palu-Koro strike-slip fault system was followed by an unexpected localized tsunami. We show that direct earthquake-induced uplift and subsidence could have sourced the observed tsunami within Palu Bay. To this end, we use a physics-based, coupled earthquake–tsunami modeling framework tightly constrained by observations. The model combines rupture dynamics, seismic wave propagation, tsunami propagation and inundation. The earthquake scenario, featuring sustained supershear rupture propagation, matches key observed earthquake characteristics, including the moment magnitude, rupture duration, fault plane solution, teleseismic waveforms and inferred horizontal ground displacements. The remote stress regime reflecting regional transtension applied in the model produces a combination of up to 6 m left-lateral slip and up to 2 m normal slip on the straight fault segment dipping 65∘ East beneath Palu Bay. The time-dependent, 3D seafloor displacements are translated into bathymetry perturbations with a mean vertical offset of 1.5 m across the submarine fault segment. This sources a tsunami with wave amplitudes and periods that match those measured at the Pantoloan wave gauge and inundation that reproduces observations from field surveys. We conclude that a source related to earthquake displacements is probable and that landsliding may not have been the primary source of the tsunami. These results have important implications for submarine strike-slip fault systems worldwide. Physics-based modeling offers rapid response specifically in tectonic settings that are currently underrepresented in operational tsunami hazard assessment

Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: a real case study

Satellite-based (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar [SAR]) water level observations (WLOs) of the floodplain can be sequentially assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. This has the potential to keep the forecast on track, so providing an Earth Observation (EO) based flood forecast system. However, the operational applicability of such a system for floods developed over river networks requires further testing. One of the promising techniques for assimilation in this field is the family of ensemble Kalman (EnKF) filters. These filters use a limited-size ensemble representation of the forecast error covariance matrix. This representation tends to develop spurious correlations as the forecast-assimilation cycle proceeds, which is a further complication for dealing with floods in either urban areas or river junctions in rural environments. Here we evaluate the assimilation of WLOs obtained from a sequence of real SAR overpasses (the X-band COSMO-Skymed constellation) in a case study. We show that a direct application of a global Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) suffers from filter divergence caused by spurious correlations. However, a spatially-based filter localization provides a substantial moderation in the development of the forecast error covariance matrix, directly improving the forecast and also making it possible to further benefit from a simultaneous online inflow error estimation and correction. Additionally, we propose and evaluate a novel along-network metric for filter localization, which is physically-meaningful for the flood over a network problem. Using this metric, we further evaluate the simultaneous estimation of channel friction and spatially-variable channel bathymetry, for which the filter seems able to converge simultaneously to sensible values. Results also indicate that friction is a second order effect in flood inundation models applied to gradually varied flow in large rivers. The study is not conclusive regarding whether in an operational situation the simultaneous estimation of friction and bathymetry helps the current forecast. Overall, the results indicate the feasibility of stand-alone EO-based operational flood forecasting

Feasibility Study for an Aquatic Ecosystem Earth Observing System Version 1.2.

International audienceMany Earth observing sensors have been designed, built and launched with primary objectives of either terrestrial or ocean remote sensing applications. Often the data from these sensors are also used for freshwater, estuarine and coastal water quality observations, bathymetry and benthic mapping. However, such land and ocean specific sensors are not designed for these complex aquatic environments and consequently are not likely to perform as well as a dedicated sensor would. As a CEOS action, CSIRO and DLR have taken the lead on a feasibility assessment to determine the benefits and technological difficulties of designing an Earth observing satellite mission focused on the biogeochemistry of inland, estuarine, deltaic and near coastal waters as well as mapping macrophytes, macro-algae, sea grasses and coral reefs. These environments need higher spatial resolution than current and planned ocean colour sensors offer and need higher spectral resolution than current and planned land Earth observing sensors offer (with the exception of several R&D type imaging spectrometry satellite missions). The results indicate that a dedicated sensor of (non-oceanic) aquatic ecosystems could be a multispectral sensor with ~26 bands in the 380-780 nm wavelength range for retrieving the aquatic ecosystem variables as well as another 15 spectral bands between 360-380 nm and 780-1400 nm for removing atmospheric and air-water interface effects. These requirements are very close to defining an imaging spectrometer with spectral bands between 360 and 1000 nm (suitable for Si based detectors), possibly augmented by a SWIR imaging spectrometer. In that case the spectral bands would ideally have 5 nm spacing and Full Width Half Maximum (FWHM), although it may be necessary to go to 8 nm wide spectral bands (between 380 to 780nm where the fine spectral features occur -mainly due to photosynthetic or accessory pigments) to obtain enough signal to noise. The spatial resolution of such a global mapping mission would be between ~17 and ~33 m enabling imaging of the vast majority of water bodies (lakes, reservoirs, lagoons, estuaries etc.) larger than 0.2 ha and ~25% of river reaches globally (at ~17 m resolution) whilst maintaining sufficient radiometric resolution

Landsat 8 Observation of the Internal Solitary Waves in the Lombok Strait

Landsat  8,  Landsat  Data  Continuity  Mission  (LDCM)  satellite,  was  launched  on  11 February 2013 with Operation Land Imager (OLI) sensors. Tis sensor has better radiometric performance than the previous mission, which is quantized in the 12-bit dynamic range due to an increase in the signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio. In this analysis, the spatio-temporal distribution of the propagation of the internal solitary wave (ISW) in the Lombok Strait was extracted from the Landsat 8 images described for the first time.  Tere were 14 ISW events studied for period 2014  -  2015  using  Landsat  8.  Te  manifestations  of  ISW  recorded  on  Landsat  8  images  were then extracted using digitization method to investigate and measure several parameters and ISW distribution in the Lombok Strait. Te estimation results of the average ISW phase velocity in this study are 2.05 ms-1 with the direction of propagation heading north at an average angle of 19.08°. Tis study has shown that Landsat 8 can be used to monitor and analyze several internal wave parameters in the ocean

Proceedings of the XXVIIIth TELEMAC User Conference 18-19 October 2022

Hydrodynamic