Iberian Energy Market: Spot Price Forecast by Modelling Market Offers

Electricity is a very special commodity since it is economically non-storable, and thus requiring a constant balance between production and consumption. At the corporate level, electricity price forecasts have become a fundamental input to energy companies’ decision making mechanisms [22, 45]. Electric utilities are higly vulnerable to economical crisis, since they generally cannot pass their excess costs on the wholesale market to the retail consumers [77] and, since the price depends on variables like weather (temperature, wind speed, precipitation, etc.) and the intensity of business and everyday activities (on-peak vs. off-peak hours, weekdays vs. weekends, holidays and near-holidays, etc.) it shows specific dynamics not observed in any other market, exhibiting seasonality at the daily, weekly and annual levels, and abrupt, short-lived and generally unanticipated price spikes. These extreme price volatility make price forecasts from a few hours to a few months ahead to become of particular interest to power portfolio managers. An utility company or large industrial consumer who is able to accurately forecast the wholesale prices and it’s volatility, can adjust its bidding strategy and its own production/consumption schedule in order to reduce the risk or maximize the profits in day-ahead trading. In this work I discuss the dynamics of the Iberian electricity day-ahead market (OMIE), review the state-of-the-art forecasting techniques and introduce a new approach to Electricity Price Forecasting, by forecasting the underlying dynamics, the market demand/supply curves. With this method it is possible to predict not only the electricity prices for the next hours, but also the market curves, which can then be used for risk management and a more accurate schedule of generation units. I analyze the model results and benchmark them against other models in the industry.A eletricidade é uma commodity muito especial, uma vez que não é possível armazená-la, e por isso, requer um constante equilíbrio entre a produção e consumo. ao nível empresarial, a previsão de preços de eletricidade tornou-se um input fundamental para os mecanismos de tomada de decisão das companhias [22, 45]. As empresas de eletricidade são altamente vulneráveis a crises económicas, uma vez que, em geral, não conseguem passar os seus custos excessivos para o mercado retalhista [77] e, uma vez que o preço depende de variáveis como meteorologia (temperatura, velocidade do vento, precipitação, etc.) e da intensidade de negócio e das atividades do dia-a-dia (pico vs vazio, dias da semana vs fim-de-semana, feriados e pontes, etc.) apresenta uma dinâmica que não é observada em mais nenhum mercado, com sazonalidade diária, semanal e anual, e com picos de preço abruptos de pouca duração e, em termos gerais, impossíveis de antecipar. Esta volatilidade de preços torna a previsão de preços particularmente interessante para gestores de portfólio, seja a curto ou a longo prazo. Uma companhia de eletricidade ou grande consumidor industrial que seja capaz de prever corretamente os preços do mercado grossista e a sua volatilidade, pode ajustar a estratégia de oferta da sua produção/seu consumo de maneira a reduzir o risco ou maximizar os ganhos no mercado à vista. Neste trabalho abordo a dinâmica do mercado de eletricidade ibérico (Operador de Mercado Iberico - Polo Español (OMIE)), revendo o estado da arte dos métodos de previsão de preços de eletricidade, e introduzo uma nova técnica de previsão de preços de eletricidade, através da previsão da sua dinâmica subjacente, as curvas de mercado da procura e oferta. Com este método é possível prever, não só o preço de eletricidade para as próximas horas, mas também as próprias curvas de oferta, o que pode ser utilizado na gestão de risco ao melhor a capacidade de programar as suas unidades de geração.Os resultados do modelo são analisados e comparados com outros modelos já utilizados na industria

Electricity Spot Price Forecast by Modelling Supply and Demand Curve

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This research received no external fundingElectricity price forecasting has been a booming field over the years, with many methods and techniques being applied with different degrees of success. It is of great interest to the industry sector, becoming a must-have tool for risk management. Most methods forecast the electricity price itself; this paper gives a new perspective to the field by trying to forecast the dynamics behind the electricity price: the supply and demand curves originating from the auction. Given the complexity of the data involved which include many block bids/offers per hour, we propose a technique for market curve modeling and forecasting that incorporates multiple seasonal effects and known market variables, such as wind generation or load. It is shown that this model outperforms the benchmarked ones and increases the performance of ensemble models, highlighting the importance of the use of market bids in electricity price forecasting.publishersversionpublishe

Image Classification Methods Applied in Immersive Environments for Fine Motor Skills Training in Early Education

Fine motor skills allow to carry out the execution of crucial tasks in people's daily lives, increasing their independence and self-esteem. Among the alternatives for working these skills, immersive environments are found providing a set of elements arranged to have a haptic experience through gestural control devices. However, generally, these environments do not have a mechanism for evaluation and feedback of the exercise performed, which does not easily identify the objective's fulfillment. For this reason, this study aims to carry out a comparison of image recognition methods such as Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT), for the purpose of performing an evaluation and feedback of exercises. The assessment of the techniques is carried out using images captured from an immersive environment, calculating metrics such as confusion matrix, cross validation and classification report. As a result of this process, it was obtained that the CNN model has a better supported performance in 82.5% accuracy, showing an increase of 23.5% compared to SVM, 30% compared to K-NN and 25% compared to DT. Finally, it is concluded that in order to implement a method of evaluation and feedback in an immersive environment for academic training in the first school years, a low margin of error must be taken in the percentage of successes of the image recognition technique implemented, to ensure the proper development of these skills considering their great importance in childhood

A Statistical Perspective of the Empirical Mode Decomposition

This research focuses on non-stationary basis decompositions methods in time-frequency analysis. Classical methodologies in this field such as Fourier Analysis and Wavelet Transforms rely on strong assumptions of the underlying moment generating process, which, may not be valid in real data scenarios or modern applications of machine learning. The literature on non-stationary methods is still in its infancy, and the research contained in this thesis aims to address challenges arising in this area. Among several alternatives, this work is based on the method known as the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). The EMD is a non-parametric time-series decomposition technique that produces a set of time-series functions denoted as Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs), which carry specific statistical properties. The main focus is providing a general and flexible family of basis extraction methods with minimal requirements compared to those within the Fourier or Wavelet techniques. This is highly important for two main reasons: first, more universal applications can be taken into account; secondly, the EMD has very little a priori knowledge of the process required to apply it, and as such, it can have greater generalisation properties in statistical applications across a wide array of applications and data types. The contributions of this work deal with several aspects of the decomposition. The first set regards the construction of an IMF from several perspectives: (1) achieving a semi-parametric representation of each basis; (2) extracting such semi-parametric functional forms in a computationally efficient and statistically robust framework. The EMD belongs to the class of path-based decompositions and, therefore, they are often not treated as a stochastic representation. (3) A major contribution involves the embedding of the deterministic pathwise decomposition framework into a formal stochastic process setting. One of the assumptions proper of the EMD construction is the requirement for a continuous function to apply the decomposition. In general, this may not be the case within many applications. (4) Various multi-kernel Gaussian Process formulations of the EMD will be proposed through the introduced stochastic embedding. Particularly, two different models will be proposed: one modelling the temporal mode of oscillations of the EMD and the other one capturing instantaneous frequencies location in specific frequency regions or bandwidths. (5) The construction of the second stochastic embedding will be achieved with an optimisation method called the cross-entropy method. Two formulations will be provided and explored in this regard. Application on speech time-series are explored to study such methodological extensions given that they are non-stationary

XVII Simposio CEA de Control Inteligente: Reunión anual del grupo de Control Inteligente del comité español de automática (CEA). Libro de Actas, León, 27-29 de junio de 2022

Al igual que en las ediciones anteriores, el XVII Simposio CEA de Control Inteligente ha tratado de mantener los objetivos propuestos por el Grupo Temático de CEA y desarrollar unas jornadas de convivencia en las que se han desarrollado actividades científicas de investigación, de formación de doctores, de relaciones con la industria y, por supuesto, actividades culturales y de relaciones sociales de todos los miembros que formamos esta comunidad científica. Este año, el lugar elegido para la celebración del Simposio ha sido la ciudad de León y le ha correspondido la organización del mismo al Grupo de Investigación SUPPRESS de la Universidad de León, dirigido por el profesor Manuel Domínguez. Con más de 90 asistentes en algunas de las actividades del Simposio, hemos conseguido batir récords de asistencia y generar un ambiente más que propicio para desarrollar distintas discusiones científicas de gran calado. Esto demuestra el interés que suscita nuestra disciplina en estos tiempos. Durante los últimos años el control inteligente está demostrando ser una herramienta esencial para contribuir a solucionar los grandes retos que se nos van a plantear en el futuro. Pero, hasta la fecha no habíamos experimentado, tan de primera mano, los efectos derivados del cambio climático, la falta de recursos energéticos y de materias primas, las pandemias, la falta de recursos hídricos, la ciberseguridad o los incendios. Por ello, más que nunca se antoja necesario reflexionar, reforzar nuestros vínculos o crear nuevas sinergias para contribuir y poner nuestro valioso conocimiento a disposición de nuestra sociedad. En este sentido nossentimos orgullosos de presentar las contribuciones tan valiosas que recoge este documento. Estas han superado todas nuestras expectativas, lo que da muestras del sentido de responsabilidad que tiene el Grupo Temático CEA de Control Inteligente con su tiemp

Systematic Approaches for Telemedicine and Data Coordination for COVID-19 in Baja California, Mexico

Conference proceedings info: ICICT 2023: 2023 The 6th International Conference on Information and Computer Technologies Raleigh, HI, United States, March 24-26, 2023 Pages 529-542We provide a model for systematic implementation of telemedicine within a large evaluation center for COVID-19 in the area of Baja California, Mexico. Our model is based on human-centric design factors and cross disciplinary collaborations for scalable data-driven enablement of smartphone, cellular, and video Teleconsul-tation technologies to link hospitals, clinics, and emergency medical services for point-of-care assessments of COVID testing, and for subsequent treatment and quar-antine decisions. A multidisciplinary team was rapidly created, in cooperation with different institutions, including: the Autonomous University of Baja California, the Ministry of Health, the Command, Communication and Computer Control Center of the Ministry of the State of Baja California (C4), Colleges of Medicine, and the College of Psychologists. Our objective is to provide information to the public and to evaluate COVID-19 in real time and to track, regional, municipal, and state-wide data in real time that informs supply chains and resource allocation with the anticipation of a surge in COVID-19 cases. RESUMEN Proporcionamos un modelo para la implementación sistemática de la telemedicina dentro de un gran centro de evaluación de COVID-19 en el área de Baja California, México. Nuestro modelo se basa en factores de diseño centrados en el ser humano y colaboraciones interdisciplinarias para la habilitación escalable basada en datos de tecnologías de teleconsulta de teléfonos inteligentes, celulares y video para vincular hospitales, clínicas y servicios médicos de emergencia para evaluaciones de COVID en el punto de atención. pruebas, y para el tratamiento posterior y decisiones de cuarentena. Rápidamente se creó un equipo multidisciplinario, en cooperación con diferentes instituciones, entre ellas: la Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, la Secretaría de Salud, el Centro de Comando, Comunicaciones y Control Informático. de la Secretaría del Estado de Baja California (C4), Facultades de Medicina y Colegio de Psicólogos. Nuestro objetivo es proporcionar información al público y evaluar COVID-19 en tiempo real y rastrear datos regionales, municipales y estatales en tiempo real que informan las cadenas de suministro y la asignación de recursos con la anticipación de un aumento de COVID-19. 19 casos.ICICT 2023: 2023 The 6th International Conference on Information and Computer Technologieshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3236-

30th International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Diagnostic Engineering Management (COMADEM 2017)

Proceedings of COMADEM 201