Predictive Process Model Monitoring using Recurrent Neural Networks

The field of predictive process monitoring focuses on modelling future characteristics of running business process instances, typically by either predicting the outcome of particular objectives (e.g. completion (time), cost), or next-in-sequence prediction (e.g. what is the next activity to execute). This paper introduces Processes-As-Movies (PAM), a technique that provides a middle ground between these predictive monitoring. It does so by capturing declarative process constraints between activities in various windows of a process execution trace, which represent a declarative process model at subsequent stages of execution. This high-dimensional representation of a process model allows the application of predictive modelling on how such constraints appear and vanish throughout a process' execution. Various recurrent neural network topologies tailored to high-dimensional input are used to model the process model evolution with windows as time steps, including encoder-decoder long short-term memory networks, and convolutional long short-term memory networks. Results show that these topologies are very effective in terms of accuracy and precision to predict a process model's future state, which allows process owners to simultaneously verify what linear temporal logic rules hold in a predicted process window (objective-based), and verify what future execution traces are allowed by all the constraints together (trace-based)

Change Process Modelling using the EKD - Change Management Method

International audienceThe Enterprise Knowledge Development - Change Management Method (EKD-CMM) provides a systematic way to organise and to guide the organisational change management. The EKD-CMM road map, implemented in the electronic guide book , describes the different routes to manage change through modelling using EKD-CMM. Roughly speaking a route is a sequence of steps to be followed by the EKD-CMM user. Every step in one possible EKD-CMM route is supported by guidelines. This paper presents the guideline allowing an enterprise to construct its change process model when its current goals, its external constraints, its future requirements and its existing processes are known. The undertaken modelling approach, called "goal deployment" approach, proposes an iterative process which consists in progressively generating the hierarchy of change goals by studying the impact of the external constraints onto the current goals and of defining the impacts of the change on current business processes. The approach is illustrated using examples borrowed to an industrial case of the electricity supply sector where change management is motivated by European deregulation rules

A Process Modelling Framework Based on Point Interval Temporal Logic with an Application to Modelling Patient Flows

This thesis considers an application of a temporal theory to describe and model the patient journey in the hospital accident and emergency (A&E) department. The aim is to introduce a generic but dynamic method applied to any setting, including healthcare. Constructing a consistent process model can be instrumental in streamlining healthcare issues. Current process modelling techniques used in healthcare such as flowcharts, unified modelling language activity diagram (UML AD), and business process modelling notation (BPMN) are intuitive and imprecise. They cannot fully capture the complexities of the types of activities and the full extent of temporal constraints to an extent where one could reason about the flows. Formal approaches such as Petri have also been reviewed to investigate their applicability to the healthcare domain to model processes. Additionally, to schedule patient flows, current modelling standards do not offer any formal mechanism, so healthcare relies on critical path method (CPM) and program evaluation review technique (PERT), that also have limitations, i.e. finish-start barrier. It is imperative to specify the temporal constraints between the start and/or end of a process, e.g., the beginning of a process A precedes the start (or end) of a process B. However, these approaches failed to provide us with a mechanism for handling these temporal situations. If provided, a formal representation can assist in effective knowledge representation and quality enhancement concerning a process. Also, it would help in uncovering complexities of a system and assist in modelling it in a consistent way which is not possible with the existing modelling techniques. The above issues are addressed in this thesis by proposing a framework that would provide a knowledge base to model patient flows for accurate representation based on point interval temporal logic (PITL) that treats point and interval as primitives. These objects would constitute the knowledge base for the formal description of a system. With the aid of the inference mechanism of the temporal theory presented here, exhaustive temporal constraints derived from the proposed axiomatic system’ components serves as a knowledge base. The proposed methodological framework would adopt a model-theoretic approach in which a theory is developed and considered as a model while the corresponding instance is considered as its application. Using this approach would assist in identifying core components of the system and their precise operation representing a real-life domain deemed suitable to the process modelling issues specified in this thesis. Thus, I have evaluated the modelling standards for their most-used terminologies and constructs to identify their key components. It will also assist in the generalisation of the critical terms (of process modelling standards) based on their ontology. A set of generalised terms proposed would serve as an enumeration of the theory and subsume the core modelling elements of the process modelling standards. The catalogue presents a knowledge base for the business and healthcare domains, and its components are formally defined (semantics). Furthermore, a resolution theorem-proof is used to show the structural features of the theory (model) to establish it is sound and complete. After establishing that the theory is sound and complete, the next step is to provide the instantiation of the theory. This is achieved by mapping the core components of the theory to their corresponding instances. Additionally, a formal graphical tool termed as point graph (PG) is used to visualise the cases of the proposed axiomatic system. PG facilitates in modelling, and scheduling patient flows and enables analysing existing models for possible inaccuracies and inconsistencies supported by a reasoning mechanism based on PITL. Following that, a transformation is developed to map the core modelling components of the standards into the extended PG (PG*) based on the semantics presented by the axiomatic system. A real-life case (from the King’s College hospital accident and emergency (A&E) department’s trauma patient pathway) is considered to validate the framework. It is divided into three patient flows to depict the journey of a patient with significant trauma, arriving at A&E, undergoing a procedure and subsequently discharged. Their staff relied upon the UML-AD and BPMN to model the patient flows. An evaluation of their representation is presented to show the shortfalls of the modelling standards to model patient flows. The last step is to model these patient flows using the developed approach, which is supported by enhanced reasoning and scheduling

Digital service analysis and design : the role of process modelling

Digital libraries are evolving from content-centric systems to person-centric systems. Emergent services are interactive and multidimensional, associated systems multi-tiered and distributed. A holistic perspective is essential to their effective analysis and design, for beyond technical considerations, there are complex social, economic, organisational, and ergonomic requirements and relationships to consider. Such a perspective cannot be gained without direct user involvement, yet evidence suggests that development teams may be failing to effectively engage with users, relying on requirements derived from anecdotal evidence or prior experience. In such instances, there is a risk that services might be well designed, but functionally useless. This paper highlights the role of process modelling in gaining such perspective. Process modelling challenges, approaches, and success factors are considered, discussed with reference to a recent evaluation of usability and usefulness of a UK National Health Service (NHS) digital library. Reflecting on lessons learnt, recommendations are made regarding appropriate process modelling approach and application

An approach to control collaborative processes in PLM systems

Companies that collaborate within the product development processes need to implement an effective management of their collaborative activities. Despite the implementation of a PLM system, the collaborative activities are not efficient as it might be expected. This paper presents an analysis of the problems related to the collaborative work using a PLM system. From this analysis, we propose an approach for improving collaborative processes within a PLM system, based on monitoring indicators. This approach leads to identify and therefore to mitigate the brakes of the collaborative work

The optimisation of the estimating and tendering process in warship refit - a case study

The optimisation of a tendering process for warship refit contracts is presented. The tendering process, also known as the pre-contract award process (PCA), involves all the activities needed to be successfully awarded a refit contract. Process activities and information flows have been modelled using Integrated Definition Language IDEF0 and a Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) with optimisation performed via a Genetic Algorithm (DSM-GA) search technique. By utilising this approach the process activities were re-sequenced in such an order that the number and size of rework cycles were reduced. The result being a 57% reduction in a criterion indicating 're-work' cycles

An approach to relate business and application services using ISDL

This paper presents a service-oriented design approach that allows one to relate services modelled at different levels of granularity during a design process, such as business and application services. To relate these service models we claim that a 'concept gap' and an 'abstraction gap' need to be bridged. The concept gap represents the difference between the conceptual models used to construct service models by different stakeholders involved in the design process. The abstraction gap represents the difference in abstraction level at which service models are defined. Two techniques are presented that bridge these gaps. Both techniques are based on the Interaction System Design Language (ISDL). The paper illustrates the use of both techniques through an example

Ontology-based patterns for the integration of business processes and enterprise application architectures

Increasingly, enterprises are using Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) as an approach to Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). SOA has the potential to bridge the gap between business and technology and to improve the reuse of existing applications and the interoperability with new ones. In addition to service architecture descriptions, architecture abstractions like patterns and styles capture design knowledge and allow the reuse of successfully applied designs, thus improving the quality of software. Knowledge gained from integration projects can be captured to build a repository of semantically enriched, experience-based solutions. Business patterns identify the interaction and structure between users, business processes, and data. Specific integration and composition patterns at a more technical level address enterprise application integration and capture reliable architecture solutions. We use an ontology-based approach to capture architecture and process patterns. Ontology techniques for pattern definition, extension and composition are developed and their applicability in business process-driven application integration is demonstrated

A requirements engineering framework for integrated systems development for the construction industry

Computer Integrated Construction (CIC) systems are computer environments through which collaborative working can be undertaken. Although many CIC systems have been developed to demonstrate the communication and collaboration within the construction projects, the uptake of CICs by the industry is still inadequate. This is mainly due to the fact that research methodologies of the CIC development projects are incomplete to bridge the technology transfer gap. Therefore, defining comprehensive methodologies for the development of these systems and their effective implementation on real construction projects is vital. Requirements Engineering (RE) can contribute to the effective uptake of these systems because it drives the systems development for the targeted audience. This paper proposes a requirements engineering approach for industry driven CIC systems development. While some CIC systems are investigated to build a broad and deep contextual knowledge in the area, the EU funded research project, DIVERCITY (Distributed Virtual Workspace for Enhancing Communication within the Construction Industry), is analysed as the main case study project because its requirements engineering approach has the potential to determine a framework for the adaptation of requirements engineering in order to contribute towards the uptake of CIC systems

Business process management: a bird's-eye view and research agenda.

Processes; Management; Research;