A Comparative Review of Dimension Reduction Methods in Approximate Bayesian Computation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods make use of comparisons between simulated and observed summary statistics to overcome the problem of computationally intractable likelihood functions. As the practical implementation of ABC requires computations based on vectors of summary statistics, rather than full data sets, a central question is how to derive low-dimensional summary statistics from the observed data with minimal loss of information. In this article we provide a comprehensive review and comparison of the performance of the principal methods of dimension reduction proposed in the ABC literature. The methods are split into three nonmutually exclusive classes consisting of best subset selection methods, projection techniques and regularization. In addition, we introduce two new methods of dimension reduction. The first is a best subset selection method based on Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and the second uses ridge regression as a regularization procedure. We illustrate the performance of these dimension reduction techniques through the analysis of three challenging models and data sets.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-STS406 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An extended orthogonal forward regression algorithm for system identification using entropy

In this paper, a fast identification algorithm for nonlinear dynamic stochastic system identification is presented. The algorithm extends the classical Orthogonal Forward Regression (OFR) algorithm so that instead of using the Error Reduction Ratio (ERR) for term selection, a new optimality criterion —Shannon’s Entropy Power Reduction Ratio(EPRR) is introduced to deal with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian signals. It is shown that the new algorithm is both fast and reliable and examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the new approach

A New Robust Regression Method Based on Minimization of Geodesic Distances on a Probabilistic Manifold: Application to Power Laws

In regression analysis for deriving scaling laws that occur in various scientific disciplines, usually standard regression methods have been applied, of which ordinary least squares (OLS) is the most popular. In many situations, the assumptions underlying OLS are not fulfilled, and several other approaches have been proposed. However, most techniques address only part of the shortcomings of OLS. We here discuss a new and more general regression method, which we call geodesic least squares regression (GLS). The method is based on minimization of the Rao geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold. For the case of a power law, we demonstrate the robustness of the method on synthetic data in the presence of significant uncertainty on both the data and the regression model. We then show good performance of the method in an application to a scaling law in magnetic confinement fusion.Comment: Published in Entropy. This is an extended version of our paper at the 34th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering (MaxEnt 2014), 21-26 September 2014, Amboise, Franc

Entropy of Overcomplete Kernel Dictionaries

In signal analysis and synthesis, linear approximation theory considers a linear decomposition of any given signal in a set of atoms, collected into a so-called dictionary. Relevant sparse representations are obtained by relaxing the orthogonality condition of the atoms, yielding overcomplete dictionaries with an extended number of atoms. More generally than the linear decomposition, overcomplete kernel dictionaries provide an elegant nonlinear extension by defining the atoms through a mapping kernel function (e.g., the gaussian kernel). Models based on such kernel dictionaries are used in neural networks, gaussian processes and online learning with kernels. The quality of an overcomplete dictionary is evaluated with a diversity measure the distance, the approximation, the coherence and the Babel measures. In this paper, we develop a framework to examine overcomplete kernel dictionaries with the entropy from information theory. Indeed, a higher value of the entropy is associated to a further uniform spread of the atoms over the space. For each of the aforementioned diversity measures, we derive lower bounds on the entropy. Several definitions of the entropy are examined, with an extensive analysis in both the input space and the mapped feature space.Comment: 10 page