Data driven approaches to improve operational efficiency of emergency medical services

We study data-driven approaches to maximize the service level of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) in emerging economies. These systems usually operate under heavy resource constraints and face significant operational challenges, making them structurally and operationally different from systems in developed countries. In this thesis we study two specific issues - (i) modeling human behavior, and (ii) accounting for risk metrics due to tail behavior. First, we address the issue of ambulance abandonment that occurs when a patient's willingness to wait is less than the ambulance response time resulting in the vehicle not being utilized. We present a maximum likelihood estimation approach to estimate willingness to wait for different types of patients. We then use the estimate of waiting times in a greedy simulation based optimization model to redesign the EMS network to maximize the number of patients served within their waiting time thresholds. Computational experiments using data from an Indian metropolitan city show that our proposed resource allocation model reduces abandonment by approximately 2 percentage points with the current ambulance fleet size, 5 percentage points by doubling the fleet size and 6 percentage points by tripling the fleet size. Next, we present a risk-based optimization approach to make the EMS network robust to unexpected changes in demand patterns. This is motivated by the fact that when few parts of the network face heavy-tailed demand patterns, the demand for entire network under the resource constrained setting behaves in a heavy-tailed manner. To achieve a robust location strategy we include risk metrics, specifically the Conditional Value at Risk, that focus on tail behavior in addition to average case performance metrics. Computational experiments show that planning with a view of minimizing risk leads to solutions that perform well in heavy-tailed settings

Regulatory incentives and financial reporting quality in public healthcare organisations

English National Health Service Foundation Trusts are subject to a regulatory regime in which the level of monitoring and intervention is determined by performance against two key performance metrics: a ‘financial risk rating’, based on a number of performance metrics, such as the reported surplus margin and return on assets, and a ‘prudential borrowing limit’. In this paper, we investigate the variation in financial reporting quality, proxied by discretionary accruals, with the incentives introduced by this regime. We find: first, that discretionary accruals are managed to report small surpluses; second, that, consistent with the avoidance of regulatory intervention in both the short and medium term, discretionary accruals are more positive when pre-managed performance is below intervention triggering thresholds and more negative when well above threshold; third, that, despite a move away from financial breakeven as the primary performance objective, there remains an aversion to small loss reporting. We further find that the level of discretionary accruals is driven by two metrics of strategic significance: the surplus margin (a measure of retained earnings) and the prudential borrowing limit (a measure of borrowing capacity)

Artificial Intelligence for Emergency Response

Emergency response management (ERM) is a challenge faced by communities across the globe. First responders must respond to various incidents, such as fires, traffic accidents, and medical emergencies. They must respond quickly to incidents to minimize the risk to human life. Consequently, considerable attention has been devoted to studying emergency incidents and response in the last several decades. In particular, data-driven models help reduce human and financial loss and improve design codes, traffic regulations, and safety measures. This tutorial paper explores four sub-problems within emergency response: incident prediction, incident detection, resource allocation, and resource dispatch. We aim to present mathematical formulations for these problems and broad frameworks for each problem. We also share open-source (synthetic) data from a large metropolitan area in the USA for future work on data-driven emergency response.Comment: This is a pre-print for a book chapter to appear in Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy., and Mukhopadhyay, Ayan., (Eds.). (2023). \textit{Artificial Intelligence and Society}. ACM Pres

Association of Magnet Status With Hospitalization Outcomes for Ischemic Stroke Patients.

BACKGROUND: It is not clear whether Magnet recognition by the American Nurses Credentialing Center (nursing excellence program) is associated with improved patient outcomes. We investigated whether hospitalization in a Magnet hospital is associated with improved outcomes for patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a cohort study of patients with ischemic stroke from 2009 to 2013, who were registered in the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database. Propensity-score-adjusted multivariable regression models were used to adjust for known confounders, with mixed effects methods to control for clustering at the facility level. An instrumental variable analysis was used to control for unmeasured confounding and simulate the effect of a randomized trial. During the study period, 176 557 patients were admitted for ischemic stroke, and met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 32 092 (18.2%) were hospitalized in Magnet hospitals, and 144 465 (81.8%) in non-Magnet institutions. Instrumental variable analysis demonstrated that hospitalization in Magnet hospitals was associated with lower case-fatality (adjusted difference, -23.9%; 95% CI, -29.0% to -18.7%), length of stay (adjusted difference, -0.4; 95% CI, -0.8 to -0.1), and rate of discharge to a facility (adjusted difference, -16.5%; 95% CI, -20.0% to -13.0%) in comparison to non-Magnet hospitals. The same associations were present in propensity-score-adjusted mixed effects models. CONCLUSIONS: Using a comprehensive all-payer cohort of patients with ischemic stroke in New York State, we identified an association of treatment in Magnet hospitals with lower case-fatality, discharge to a facility, and length of stay. Further research into the factors contributing to the superiority of Magnet hospitals in stroke care is warranted

Large Scale Organizational Intervention to Improve Emergency Department Throughput in a Community Hospital

Abstract BACKGROUND: Emergency Department boarding is a well-documented systemic problem across the country. ED-2b, the time from decision to admit a patient to Emergency Department departure, is specified by the Joint Commission as a quality measure for Emergency Department boarding. ED-2b metrics have been a longstanding challenge at this community hospital outside the nation’s capital. The aim of this study was to reduce median ED-2b times by 10% compared to fiscal year 2020 (FY20). To accomplish the reduction in time, a multidisciplinary throughput committee was developed with subsequent action plans designed to improve Emergency Department throughput. METHODS: The Plan Do Study Act method of quality improvement was used for this project. Several tactics were developed to address a variety of known throughput challenges. Baseline assessment included a review of FY20 ED-2b metrics. These times were used as the comparative pre-intervention data. Literature review queries were conducted to identify tactics to improve hospital throughput. INTERVENTION: A multidisciplinary hospital throughput committee was developed along with a Plan Do Study Act action plan at the beginning of FY21. Improvement tactics included the standardization of workflows for care transitions, compliance with a telemetry discontinuation protocol, implementation of an early warning predictive model for Emergency Department overcrowding, and an inpatient discharge team. In addition, data was collected during the project period comparing bed request to bed assignment, bed assignment to unit arrival, and inpatient discharge order to depart times. Perceptions of the implications associated with Emergency Department boarding were assessed pre and post intervention. RESULTS: Eight months after implementing various tactics, ED-2b metrics were reviewed to assess effectiveness. Comparative data revealed a statistically significant improvement in ED-2b median times. In addition, implementing a discharge team demonstrated a 21% improvement in inpatient discharge departures by 1700. CONCLUSION: Implementing a multidisciplinary throughput committee with engaged participants and leaders, creates a forum for process improvement. By implementing several tactics with key stakeholder, the reduction of Emergency Department boarding time is achievable. Accomplishing frontline engagement supports the success of tactics, improvement of patient satisfaction, and aligns with organizational goal achievement

Redesigning the Barranquilla's public emergency care network to improve the patient waiting time

Tesis por compendio[ES] La oportunidad en la atención es uno de los críticos de mayor relevancia en la satisfacción de los pacientes que acuden a los servicios de Urgencias. Por tal motivo, las instituciones prestadoras de servicio y las organizaciones gubernamentales deben propender conjuntamente por una atención cada vez más oportuna a costos operacionales razonables. En el caso de la Red Pública en Servicios de Urgencias de Barrannquilla, compuesta por 8 puntos de atención y 2 hospitales, la tendencia marca un continuo crecimiento de la oportunidad en la atención con una tasa de 3,08 minutos/semestre y una probabilidad del 93,13% de atender a los pacientes después de una espera mayor a 30 minutos. Lo anterior se constituye en un síntoma inequívoco de la incapacidad de la Red para satisfacer los estándares de oportunidad establecidos por el Ministerio de Salud, hecho que podría desencadenar el desarrollo de sintomatologías de mayor complejidad, el incremento de la probabilidad de mortalidad, el requerimiento de servicios clínicos más complejos (hospitalización y cuidados intensivos) y el aumento de los costos asociados al servicio. En consecuencia, la presente tesis doctoral presenta el rediseño de la Red Pública en Servicios de Urgencias anteriormente mencionada a fin de otorgar a la población diana un servicio eficiente y altamente oportuno donde tanto las instituciones prestadoras del servicio como los organismos gubernamentales converjan efectivamente. Para ello, fue necesaria la ejecución de 4 grandes fases a través de las cuales se consolidó una propuesta orientada al desarrollo efectivo y sostenible de las operaciones de la Red. Primero, se caracterizó la Red Pública de Servicios de Urgencias en Salud considerando su comportamiento actual en términos de demanda y oportunidad de la atención. Luego, a través de una revisión sistemática de la literatura, se identificaron los enfoques metodológicos que se han implementado para la mejora de la oportunidad y otros indicadores de rendimiento asociados al servicio de Urgencias. Posteriormente, se diseñó una metodología para la creación de redes de Urgencias eficientes y sostenibles la cual luego se validó en la Red Pública sudamericana a fin de disminuir la oportunidad de atención promedio en Urgencias y garantizar la distribución equitativa de los beneficios financieros derivados de la colaboración. Finalmente, se construyó un modelo multicriterio que permitió evaluar el rendimiento de los departamentos de Urgencia e impulsó la creación de estrategias de mejora focalizadas en incrementar su respuesta ante la demanda cambiante, los críticos de satisfacción y las condiciones de operación estipuladas en la ley. Los resultados de esta aplicación evidenciaron que los pacientes que acceden a la Red tienden a esperar en promedio 201,6 min con desviación de estándar de 81,6 min antes de ser atendidos por urgencia. Por otro lado, de acuerdo con la revisión de literatura, la combinación de técnicas de investigación de operaciones, ingeniería de la calidad y analítica de datos es ampliamente recomendada para abordar este problema. En ese sentido, una metodología basada en modelos colaterales de pago, simulación de procesos y lean seis sigma fue propuesta y validada generando un rediseño de Red cuya oportunidad de atención promedio podría disminuir entre 6,71 min y 9,08 min con beneficios financieros promedio de US$29,980/nodo. En último lugar, un modelo compuesto por 8 criterios y 35 sub-criterios fue diseñado para evaluar el rendimiento general de los departamentos de Urgencias. Los resultados del modelo evidenciaron el rol crítico de la infraestructura (Peso global = 21,5i garantir la distribució equitativa dels beneficis financers derivats de la col´laboració. Finalment, es va construir un model multicriteri que va permetre avaluar el rendiment dels departaments d'Urgència i va impulsar la creació d'estratègies de millora focalitzades en incrementar la seva resposta davant la demanda canviant, els crítics de satisfacció i les condicions d'operació estipulades en la llei. Els resultats d'aquesta aplicació van evidenciar que els pacients que accedeixen a la Xarxa tendeixen a esperar de mitjana 201,6 min amb desviació d'estàndard de 81,6 min abans de ser atesos per urgència. D'altra banda, d'acord amb la revisió de literatura, la combinació de tècniques d'investigació d'operacions, enginyeria de la qualitat i analítica de dades és àmpliament recomanada per abordar aquest problema. En aquest sentit, una metodologia basada en models col´laterals de pagament, simulació de processos i llegeixin 6 sigma va ser proposada i validada generant un redisseny de Xarxa la oportunitat d'atenció mitjana podria disminuir entre 6,71 min i 9,08 min amb beneficis financers mitjana d'US$ 29,980 / node. En darrer lloc, un model compost per 8 criteris i 35 sub-criteris va ser dissenyat per avaluar el rendiment general dels departaments d'Urgències. Els resultats de el model evidenciar el paper crític de la infraestructura (Pes global = 21,5%) en el rendiment dels departaments d'Urgència i la naturalesa interactiva de la Seguretat de l'Pacient (C + R = 12,771).[EN] Waiting time is one of the most critical measures in the satisfaction of patients admitted within emergency departments. Therefore, hospitals and governmental organizations should jointly aim to provide timely attention at reasonable costs. In the case of Barranquilla's Pubic Emergency Service Network, composed by 8 Points of care (POCs) and 2 hospitals, the trend evidences a continuous growing of the waiting time with a rate of 3,08 min/semester and a 93,13% likelihood of serving patients after waiting for more than 30 minutes. This is an unmistakable symptom of the network inability for satisfying the standards established by the Ministry of Health, which may trigger the development of more complex symptoms, increase in the death rate, requirement for more complex clinical services (hospitalization and intensive care unit) and increased service costs. This doctoral dissertation then illustrates the redesign of the aforementioned Public Emergency Service Network aiming at providing the target population with an efficient and highly timely service where both hospitals and governmental institutions effectively converge. It was then necessary to implement a 4-phase methodology consolidating a proposal oriented to the effective and sustainable development of network operations. First, the Public Emergency Service Network was characterized considering its current behavior in terms of demand and waiting time. A systematic literature review was then undertaken for identifying the methodological approaches that have been implementing for improving the waiting time and other performance indicators associated with the emergency care service. Following this, a methodology for the creation of efficient and sustainable emergency care networks was designed and later validated in the Southamerican Public network for lessening the average waiting time and ensuring the equitable distribution of profits derived from the collaboration. Ultimately, a multicriteria decision-making model was created for assessing the performance of the emergency departments and propelling the design of improvement strategies focused on bettering the response against the changing demand conditions, critical to satisfaction and operational conditions. The results evidenced that the patients accessing to the network tend to wait 201,6 min on average with a standard deviation of 81,6 min before being served by the emergency care unit. On the other hand, based on the reported literature, it is highly suggested to combine Operations Research (OR) methods, quality-based techniques, and data-driven approaches for addressing this problem. In this sense, a methodology based on collateral payment models, Discrete-event simulation, and Lean Six Sigma was proposed and validated resulting in a redesigned network whose average waiting time may diminish between 6,71 min and 9,08 min with an average profit US$29,980/node. Lately, a model comprising of 8 criteria and 35 sub-criteria was designed for evaluating the overall performance of emergency departments. The model outcomes revealed the critical role of Infrastructure (Global weight = 21,5%) in ED performance and the interactive nature of Patient Safety (C + R = 12,771).Ortíz Barrios, MÁ. (2020). Redesigning the Barranquilla's public emergency care network to improve the patient waiting time [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/156215TESISCompendi