Dynamics under Uncertainty: Modeling Simulation and Complexity

The dynamics of systems have proven to be very powerful tools in understanding the behavior of different natural phenomena throughout the last two centuries. However, the attributes of natural systems are observed to deviate from their classical states due to the effect of different types of uncertainties. Actually, randomness and impreciseness are the two major sources of uncertainties in natural systems. Randomness is modeled by different stochastic processes and impreciseness could be modeled by fuzzy sets, rough sets, Dempster–Shafer theory, etc

Evaluating factors of government investment in new industrial parks

Abstract: There are factors to consider in investment decisions that include the potential Return on Investment (ROI) and value creation. Government authorities have a responsibility to create an investment friendly climate and attract new business into their countries. In South Africa government has taken a step to build industrial parks to attract new investment. In order to achieve sustainable industrial development the government and other actors need to increase their investment in building of accessible and equipped industrial parks. On this paper, we use a multiple objective criterion to evaluate the factors of government’s investment in new industrial parks. The problem investigated on this paper is that conflicting political preferences which dominate economic advances regarding industrialisation. This paper identifies key factors essential for consideration in government decisions when investing in industrial park developments. The implications of industrial development for the developing world include improvement of livelihoods for citizens and the youth that is actively seeking job opportunities. However, it is not a straightforward path and it is for this reason on the paper we use MOCDM to understand the issues that require attention in order to achieve economic development that is sustainable

Multi-criteria suitability analysis for neglected and underutilised crop species in South Africa

Several neglected and underutilised species (NUS) provide solutions to climate change and creating a Zero Hunger world, the Sustainable Development Goal 2. Several NUS are drought and heat stress-tolerant, making them ideal for improving marginalised cropping systems in drought-prone areas. However, owing to their status as NUS, current crop suitability maps do not include them as part of the crop choices. This study aimed to develop land suitability maps for selected NUS [sorghum, (Sorghum bicolor), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata), amaranth and taro (Colocasia esculenta)] using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in ArcGIS. Multidisciplinary factors from climatic, soil and landscape, socio-economic and technical indicators overlaid using Weighted Overlay Analysis. Validation was done through field visits, and area under the curve (AUC) was used to measure AHP model performance. The results indicated that sorghum was highly suitable (S1) = 2%, moderately suitable (S2) = 61%, marginally suitable (S3) = 33%, and unsuitable (N1) = 4%, cowpea S1 = 3%, S2 = 56%, S3 = 39%, N1 = 2%, amaranth S1 = 8%, S2 = 81%, S3 = 11%, and taro S1 = 0.4%, S2 = 28%, S3 = 64%, N1 = 7%, of calculated arable land of SA (12 655 859 ha). Overall, the validation showed that the mapping exercises exhibited a high degree of accuracies (i.e. sorghum AUC = 0.87, cowpea AUC = 0.88, amaranth AUC = 0.95 and taro AUC = 0.82). Rainfall was the most critical variable and criteria with the highest impact on land suitability of the NUS. Results of this study suggest that South Africa has a huge potential for NUS production. The maps developed can contribute to evidence-based and site-specific recommendations for NUS and their mainstreaming. Also, the maps can be used to design appropriate production guidelines and to support existing policy frameworks which advocate for sustainable intensification of marginalised cropping systems through increased crop diversity and the use of stress-tolerant food crops

Neuro-fuzzy resource forecast in site suitability assessment for wind and solar energy: a mini review

Abstract:Site suitability problems in renewable energy studies have taken a new turn since the advent of geographical information system (GIS). GIS has been used for site suitability analysis for renewable energy due to its prowess in processing and analyzing attributes with geospatial components. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are further used for criteria ranking in the order of influence on the study. Upon location of most appropriate sites, the need for intelligent resource forecast to aid in strategic and operational planning becomes necessary if viability of the investment will be enhanced and resource variability will be better understood. One of such intelligent models is the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and its variants. This study presents a mini-review of GIS-based MCDM facility location problems in wind and solar resource site suitability analysis and resource forecast using ANFIS-based models. We further present a framework for the integration of the two concepts in wind and solar energy studies. Various MCDM techniques for decision making with their strengths and weaknesses were presented. Country specific studies which apply GIS-based method in site suitability were presented with criteria considered. Similarly, country-specific studies in ANFIS-based resource forecasts for wind and solar energy were also presented. From our findings, there has been no technically valid range of values for spatial criteria and the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) has been commonly used for criteria ranking leaving other techniques less explored. Also, hybrid ANFIS models are more effective compared to standalone ANFIS models in resource forecast, and ANFIS optimized with population-based models has been mostly used. Finally, we present a roadmap for integrating GIS-MCDM site suitability studies with ANFIS-based modeling for improved strategic and operational planning

Sustainable Assessment in Supply Chain and Infrastructure Management

In the competitive business environment or public domain, the sustainability assessment in supply chain and infrastructure management are important for any organization. Organizations are currently striving to improve their sustainable strategies through preparedness, response, and recovery because of increasing competitiveness, community, and regulatory pressure. Thus, it is necessary to develop a meaningful and more focused understanding of sustainability in supply chain management and infrastructure management practices. In the context of a supply chain, sustainability implies that companies identify, assess, and manage impacts and risks in all the echelons of the supply chain, considering downstream and upstream activities. Similarly, the sustainable infrastructure management indicates the ability of infrastructure to meet the requirements of the present without sacrificing the ability of future generations to address their needs. The complexities regarding sustainable supply chain and infrastructure management have driven managers and professionals to seek different solutions. This Special Issue aims to provide readers with the most recent research results on the aforementioned subjects. In addition, it offers some solutions and also raises some questions for further research and development toward sustainable supply chain and infrastructure management

Application of Surrogate Based Optimisation in the Design of Automotive Body Structures

The rapid development of automotive industry requires manufacturers to continuously reduce the development cost and time and to enhance the product quality. Thus, modern automotive design pays more attention to using CAE analysis based optimisation techniques to drive the entire design flow. This thesis focuses on the optimisation design to improve the automotive crashworthiness and fatigue performances, aiming to enhance the optimisation efficiency, accuracy, reliability, and robustness etc. The detailed contents are as follows: (1) To excavate the potential of crash energy absorbers, the concept of functionally graded structure was introduced and multiobjective designs were implemented to this novel type of structures. First, note that the severe deformation takes place in the tubal corners, multi-cell tubes with a lateral thickness gradient were proposed to better enhance the crashworthiness. The results of crashworthiness analyses and optimisation showed that these functionally graded multi-cell tubes are preferable to a uniform multi-cell tube. Then, functionally graded foam filled tubes with different gradient patterns were analyzed and optimized subject to lateral impact and the results demonstrated that these structures can still behave better than uniform foam filled structures under lateral loading, which will broaden the application scope of functionally graded structures. Finally, dual functionally graded structures, i.e. functionally graded foam filled tubes with functionally graded thickness walls, were proposed and different combinations of gradients were compared. The results indicated that placing more material to tubal corners and the maximum density to the outmost layer are beneficial to achieve the best performance. (2) To make full use of training data, multiple ensembles of surrogate models were proposed to maximize the fatigue life of a truck cab, while the panel thicknesses were taken as design variables and the structural mass the constraint. Meanwhile, particle swarm optimisation was integrated with sequential quadratic programming to avoid the premature convergence. The results illustrated that the hybrid particle swarm optimisation and ensembles of surrogates enable to attain a more competent solution for fatigue optimisation. (3) As the conventional surrogate based optimisation largely depends on the number of initial sample data, sequential surrogate modeling was proposed to practical applications in automotive industry. (a) To maximize the fatigue life of spot-welded joints, an expected improvement based sequential surrogate modeling method was utilized. The results showed that by using this method the performance can be significantly improved with only a relatively small number of finite element analyses. (c) A multiojective sequential surrogate modeling method was proposed to address a multiobjective optimisation of a foam-filled double cylindrical structure. By adding the sequential points and updating the Kriging model adaptively, more accurate Pareto solutions are generated. (4) While various uncertainties are inevitably present in real-life optimisations, conventional deterministic optimisations could probably lead to the violation of constraints and the instability of performances. Therefore, nondeterministic optimisation methods were introduced to solve the automotive design problems. (a) A multiobjective reliability-based optimisation for design of a door was investigated. Based on analysis and design responses surface models, the structural mass was minimized and the vertical sag stiffness was maximized subjected to the probabilistic constraint. The results revealed that the Pareto frontier is divided into the sensitive region and insensitive region with respect to uncertainties, and the decision maker is recommended to select a solution from the insensitive region. Furthermore, the reduction of uncertainties can help improve the reliability but will increase the manufacturing cost, and the tradeoff between the reliability target and performance should be made. (b) A multiobjective uncertain optimisation of the foam-filled double cylindrical structure was conducted by considering randomness in the foam density and wall thicknesses. Multiobjective particle swarm optimisation and Monte Carlo simulation were integrated into the optimisation. The results proved that while the performances of the objectives are sacrificed slightly, the nondeterministic optimisation can enhance the robustness of the objectives and maintain the reliability of the constraint. (c) A multiobjective robust optimisation of the truck cab was performed by considering the uncertainty in material properties. The general version of dual response surface model, namely dual surrogate model, was proposed to approximate the means and standard deviations of the performances. Then, the multiobjective particle optimisation was used to generate the well-distributed Pareto frontier. Finally, a hybrid multi-criteria decision making model was proposed to select the best compromise solution considering both the fatigue performance and its robustness. During this PhD study, the following ideas are considered innovative: (1) Surrogate modeling and multiobjective optimisation were integrated to address the design problems of novel functionally graded structures, aiming to develop more advanced automotive energy absorbers. (2) The ensembles of surrogates and hybrid particle swarm optimisation were proposed for the design of a truck cab, which could make full use of training points and has a strong searching capacity. (3) Sequential surrogate modeling methods were introduced to several optimisation problems in the automotive industry so that the optimisations are less dependent on the number of initial training points and both the efficiency and accuracy are improved. (4) The surrogate based optimisation method was implemented to address various uncertainties in real life applications. Furthermore, a hybrid multi-criteria decision making model was proposed to make the best compromise between the performance and robustness

Enhancing Evacuation Planning in Public Buildings: Optimising Egress Location and Protection

Effective evacuation strategies are crucial for ensuring the safety of individuals during emergencies and disasters. Despite significant progress in evacuation planning, the intricate dynamics of disaster scenarios and uncertainties inherent in such situations need to be better incorporated in planning egress locations to enhance safety in buildings. This work focuses on strategically locating egress points within public buildings, acknowledging their pivotal role in facilitating secure evacuations. Optimising egress points improves evacuation efficiency and minimises associated risks, significantly improving evacuation. This research introduces an innovative approach that integrates optimisation models, addresses decision-making complexities, explores practical applications, and considers potential attack scenarios. The study explores evacuation dynamics across diverse scenarios, elevating preparedness, and safety protocols to protect public assets and lives. Developing mixedinteger programming models establishes a foundation for optimising egress locations. MCDM is then employed, leveraging the F-AHP to address uncertainties in egress selection. Practicality is realised through integrating Revit and AnyLogic software, facilitating assessment through BIM and ABM. A stochastic BP model is formulated, addressing both Defender and Attacker perspectives for enhanced egress strategies. This model strategically allocates resources to fortify egresses, ensuring occupant safety during evacuations. Contributions further optimisation approaches, fortification strategies, and progressive enhancements in evacuation planning. These collectively address key challenges and gaps in existing literature, enhancing evacuation efficiency and public safety during emergencies. The research bridges gaps in existing approaches, providing a framework for future investigations into optimising evacuation strategies, enhanced disaster preparation, and further advancements in the field

An analytic hierarchy process and Markov chain based approach for condition rating and dynamic service life prediction of retaining walls

Retaining walls are typically considered auxiliary assets within the global transportation asset management scheme. However, failure cases to this structure class have attracted more attention to retaining wall assets. The possibility of failure also helps validate Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21) requirements that transportation agencies develop asset management plans. Consequently, this thesis represents the development of a framework that combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Markov Chain to rate and predict the future condition of retaining walls respectively. Based on the Field Survey of candidate retaining walls, the research uses AHP for hierarchical configuration and pair-wise comparison of retaining wall elements (and sub-elements) – to generate relative weights. This process of relative weighting ultimately lends towards individual wall condition rating scores. This score, together with transition probabilities derived from historical condition data forms the basis of the dynamic service life prediction using the Markov chain

Multi-Criteria Evaluation in Support of the Decision-Making Process in Highway Construction Projects

The decision-making process in highway construction projects identifies and selects the optimal alternative based on the user requirements and evaluation criteria. The current practice of the decision-making process does not consider all construction impacts in an integrated decision-making process. This dissertation developed a multi-criteria evaluation framework to support the decision-making process in highway construction projects. In addition to the construction cost and mobility impacts, reliability, safety, and emission impacts are assessed at different evaluation levels and used as inputs to the decision-making process. Two levels of analysis, referred to as the planning level and operation level, are proposed in this research to provide input to a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process that considers user prioritization of the assessed criteria. The planning level analysis provides faster and less detailed assessments of the inputs to the MCDM utilizing analytical tools, mainly in a spreadsheet format. The second level of analysis produces more detailed inputs to the MCDM and utilizes a combination of mesoscopic simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment tool, and microscopic simulation tool, combined with other utilities. The outputs generated from the two levels of analysis are used as inputs to a decision-making process based on present worth analysis and the Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) MCDM method and the results are compared

Decision making study: methods and applications of evidential reasoning and judgment analysis

Decision making study has been the multi-disciplinary research involving operations researchers, management scientists, statisticians, mathematical psychologists and economists as well as others. This study aims to investigate the theory and methodology of decision making research and apply them to different contexts in real cases. The study has reviewed the literature of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach, Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) movement, Social Judgment Theory (SJT), and Adaptive Toolbox (AT) program. On the basis of these literatures, two methods, Evidence-based Trade-Off (EBTO) and Judgment Analysis with Heuristic Modelling (JA-HM), have been proposed and developed to accomplish decision making problems under different conditions. In the EBTO method, we propose a novel framework to aid people s decision making under uncertainty and imprecise goal. Under the framework, the imprecise goal is objectively modelled through an analytical structure, and is independent of the task requirement; the task requirement is specified by the trade-off strategy among criteria of the analytical structure through an importance weighting process, and is subject to the requirement change of a particular decision making task; the evidence available, that could contribute to the evaluation of general performance of the decision alternatives, are formulated with belief structures which are capable of capturing various format of uncertainties that arise from the absence of data, incomplete information and subjective judgments. The EBTO method was further applied in a case study of Soldier system decision making. The application has demonstrated that EBTO, as a tool, is able to provide a holistic analysis regarding the requirements of Soldier missions, the physical conditions of Soldiers, and the capability of their equipment and weapon systems, which is critical in domain. By drawing the cross-disciplinary literature from NDM and AT, the JA-HM extended the traditional Judgment Analysis (JA) method, through a number of novel methodological procedures, to account for the unique features of decision making tasks under extreme time pressure and dynamic shifting situations. These novel methodological procedures include, the notion of decision point to deconstruct the dynamic shifting situations in a way that decision problem could be identified and formulated; the classification of routine and non-routine problems, and associated data alignment process to enable meaningful decision data analysis across different decision makers (DMs); the notion of composite cue to account for the DMs iterative process of information perception and comprehension in dynamic task environment; the application of computational models of heuristics to account for the time constraints and process dynamics of DMs decision making process; and the application of cross-validation process to enable the methodological principle of competitive testing of decision models. The JA-HM was further applied in a case study of fire emergency decision making. The application has been the first behavioural test of the validity of the computational models of heuristics, in predicting the DMs decision making during fire emergency response. It has also been the first behavioural test of the validity of the non-compensatory heuristics in predicting the DMs decisions on ranking task. The findings identified extend the literature of AT and NDM, and have implications for the fire emergency decision making