Development and evaluation of control performance assessment indices for Alcoa’s advanced process control applications

This report details development and evaluation of potential performance measures for Advanced Process Control (APC) applications implemented across Alcoa sites. The final measure would ideally aid in the diagnosis of poor control and enable comparison between the performances of separate controllers. In particular, the work has focused on the development of a suitable control performance index for Honeywell’s Robust Model Predictive Control Technology (RMPCT – Profit Controller) as implemented on an evaporator process located at Alcoa’s Kwinana alumina refinery. Research in the field of controller performance assessment, particularly the performance of multivariate Model-based Predictive Controllers, was investigated. Existing performance indices proposed in the literature were assessed for their suitability to Alcoa’s applications. For the greater part, these methods are not suited to the specific characteristics and functionality of Honeywell RMPCT. A CPA metric entitled Event Frequency Performance Index (EFPI) is proposed in this report. It is a composite metric comprising five component metrics each of which are designed to gauge different aspects of RMPCT performance. Its stages of development are described and it is applied to seven periods of RMPCT historical data. The metric results are analysed and compared to general expectations about controller performance for these assessment periods in order to determine the utility of the proposed approach. A historical benchmarking method for performance assessment is also proposed. This involves the identification of a period of controller operation that is known to be good and then comparing subsequent assessment periods to this benchmark. This approach is applied to three different aspects of RMPCT performance: CV limit violation, MV movement and economic optimisation. Performance indices using this method are obtained for six periods of RMPCT historical data

A data-based approach for multivariate model predictive control performance monitoring

An intelligent statistical approach is proposed for monitoring the performance of multivariate model predictive control (MPC) controller, which systematically integrates both the assessment and diagnosis procedures. Model predictive error is included into the monitored variable set and a 2-norm based covariance benchmark is presented. By comparing the data of a monitored operational period with the "golden" user-predefined one, this method can properly evaluate the performance of an MPC controller at the monitored operational stage. Characteristic direction information is mined from the operating data and the corresponding classes are built. The eigenvector angle is defined to describe the similarity between the current data set and the established classes, and an angle-based classifier is introduced to identify the root cause of MPC performance degradation when a poor performance is detected. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated in a case study of the Wood–Berry distillation column system

Performance monitoring of MPC based on dynamic principal component analysis

A unified framework based on the dynamic principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed for performance monitoring of constrained multi-variable model predictive control (MPC) systems. In the proposed performance monitoring framework, the dynamic PCA based performance benchmark is adopted for performance assessment, while performance diagnosis is carried out using a unified weighted dynamic PCA similarity measure. Simulation results obtained from the case study of the Shell process demonstrate that the use of the dynamic PCA performance benchmark can detect the performance deterioration more quickly compared with the traditional PCA method, and the proposed unified weighted dynamic PCA similarity measure can correctly locate the root cause for poor performance of MPC controller

Metabolite changes in blood predict the onset of tuberculosis

Immunogenetics and cellular immunology of bacterial infectious disease

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Analysis and Application of Advanced Control Strategies to a Heating Element Nonlinear Model

open4siSustainable control has begun to stimulate research and development in a wide range of industrial communities particularly for systems that demand a high degree of reliability and availability (sustainability) and at the same time characterised by expensive and/or safety critical maintenance work. For heating systems such as HVAC plants, clear conflict exists between ensuring a high degree of availability and reducing costly maintenance times. HVAC systems have highly non-linear dynamics and a stochastic and uncontrollable driving force as input in the form of intake air speed, presenting an interesting challenge for modern control methods. Suitable control methods can provide sustainable maximisation of energy conversion efficiency over wider than normally expected air speeds and temperatures, whilst also giving a degree of “tolerance” to certain faults, providing an important impact on maintenance scheduling, e.g. by capturing the effects of some system faults before they become serious.This paper presents the design of different control strategies applied to a heating element nonlinear model. The description of this heating element was obtained exploiting a data driven and physically meaningful nonlinear continuous time model, which represents a test bed used in passive air conditioning for sustainable housing applications. This model has low complexity while achieving high simulation performance. The physical meaningfulness of the model provides an enhanced insight into the performance and functionality of the system. In return, this information can be used during the system simulation and improved model based and data driven control designs for tight temperature regulation. The main purpose of this study is thus to give several examples of viable and practical designs of control schemes with application to this heating element model. Moreover, extensive simulations and Monte Carlo analysis are the tools for assessing experimentally the main features of the proposed control schemes, in the presence of modelling and measurement errors. These developed control methods are also compared in order to evaluate advantages and drawbacks of the considered solutions. Finally, the exploited simulation tools can serve to highlight the potential application of the proposed control strategies to real air conditioning systems.openTurhan, T.; Simani, S.; Zajic, I.; Gokcen Akkurt, G.Turhan, T.; Simani, Silvio; Zajic, I.; Gokcen Akkurt, G

Early symptoms and sensations as predictors of lung cancer: a machine learning multivariate model.

The aim of this study was to identify a combination of early predictive symptoms/sensations attributable to primary lung cancer (LC). An interactive e-questionnaire comprised of pre-diagnostic descriptors of first symptoms/sensations was administered to patients referred for suspected LC. Respondents were included in the present analysis only if they later received a primary LC diagnosis or had no cancer; and inclusion of each descriptor required ≥4 observations. Fully-completed data from 506/670 individuals later diagnosed with primary LC (n = 311) or no cancer (n = 195) were modelled with orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS). After analysing 145/285 descriptors, meeting inclusion criteria, through randomised seven-fold cross-validation (six-fold training set: n = 433; test set: n = 73), 63 provided best LC prediction. The most-significant LC-positive descriptors included a cough that varied over the day, back pain/aches/discomfort, early satiety, appetite loss, and having less strength. Upon combining the descriptors with the background variables current smoking, a cold/flu or pneumonia within the past two years, female sex, older age, a history of COPD (positive LC-association); antibiotics within the past two years, and a history of pneumonia (negative LC-association); the resulting 70-variable model had accurate cross-validated test set performance: area under the ROC curve = 0.767 (descriptors only: 0.736/background predictors only: 0.652), sensitivity = 84.8% (73.9/76.1%, respectively), specificity = 55.6% (66.7/51.9%, respectively). In conclusion, accurate prediction of LC was found through 63 early symptoms/sensations and seven background factors. Further research and precision in this model may lead to a tool for referral and LC diagnostic decision-making

Clustering-Based Predictive Process Monitoring

Business process enactment is generally supported by information systems that record data about process executions, which can be extracted as event logs. Predictive process monitoring is concerned with exploiting such event logs to predict how running (uncompleted) cases will unfold up to their completion. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring framework for estimating the probability that a given predicate will be fulfilled upon completion of a running case. The predicate can be, for example, a temporal logic constraint or a time constraint, or any predicate that can be evaluated over a completed trace. The framework takes into account both the sequence of events observed in the current trace, as well as data attributes associated to these events. The prediction problem is approached in two phases. First, prefixes of previous traces are clustered according to control flow information. Secondly, a classifier is built for each cluster using event data to discriminate between fulfillments and violations. At runtime, a prediction is made on a running case by mapping it to a cluster and applying the corresponding classifier. The framework has been implemented in the ProM toolset and validated on a log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital