Climatic and geometric controls on the global distribution of surge-type glaciers : implications for a unifying model of surging

Financial support was provided by the ConocoPhillips Lundin Northern Area Program project CRIOS.Controls on the global distribution of surge-type glaciers hold the keys to a better understanding of surge mechanisms. We investigate correlations between the distribution of surge-type glaciers and climatic and glacier geometry variables, using a new global geodatabase of 2317 surge-type glaciers. The highest densities of surge-type glaciers occur within an optimal climatic envelope bounded by temperature and precipitation thresholds. Across all regions with both surge-type and normal glaciers, the former are larger, especially at the cold, dry end of the climatic spectrum. A species distribution model, Maxent, accurately predicts the major clusters of surge-type glaciers using a series of climatic and glacier geometry variables, but under-predicts clusters found outside the climatically optimal surge zone. We interpret the results in terms of a new enthalpy cycle model. Steady states require a balance between enthalpy gains generated by the balance flux and losses via heat conduction and meltwater discharge. This condition can be most easily satisfied in cold, dry environments (thin, low-flux glaciers, efficient conductive heat losses) and warm, humid environments (high meltwater discharges). Intermediate conditions correspond to the optimal surge zone, where neither heat conduction nor runoff can effectively discharge enthalpy gains, and dynamic cycling can result.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Modeling Future Sea Level Rise From Melting Glaciers

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2008Melting mountain glaciers and ice caps (MG&IC) are the second largest contributor to rising sea level after thermal expansion of the oceans and are likely to remain the dominant glaciological contributor to rising sea level in the 21st century. The aim of this work is to project 21st century volume changes of all MG&IC and to provide systematic analysis of uncertainties originating from different sources in the calculation. I provide an ensemble of 21st century volume projections for all MG&IC from the World Glacier Inventory by modeling the surface mass balance coupled with volume-area-length scaling and forced with temperature and precipitation scenarios from four Global Climate Models (GCMs). By upscaling the volume projections through a regionally differentiated approach to all MG&IC outside Greenland and Antarctica (514,380 km 2) I estimated total volume loss for the time period 2001-2100 to range from 0.039 to 0.150 m sea level equivalent. While three GCMs agree that Alaskan glaciers are the main contributors to the projected sea level rise, one GCM projected the largest total volume loss mainly due to Arctic MG&IC. The uncertainties in the projections are addressed by a series of sensitivity tests applied in the methodology for assessment of global volume changes and on individual case studies for particular glaciers. Special emphasis is put on the uncertainties in volume-area scaling. For both, individual and global assessments of volume changes, the choice of GCM forcing glacier models is shown to be the largest source of quantified uncertainties in the projections. Another major source of uncertainty is the temperature forcing in the mass balance model depending on the quality of climate reanalysis products (ERA-40) in order to simulate the local temperatures on a mountain glacier or ice cap. Other uncertainties in the methods are associated with volume-area-length scaling as a tool for deriving glacier initial volumes and glacier geometry changes in the volume projections. Nevertheless, the lack of more detailed knowledge of global ice volume constrains the estimates of the potential and projected sea level rise from melting MG&IC. Any progress in this field is limited without a more complete glacier inventory database

Elevation change, mass balance, dynamics and surging of Langjökull, Iceland from 1997 to 2007

ABSTRACTGlaciers and ice caps around the world are changing quickly, with surge-type behaviour superimposed upon climatic forcing. Here, we study Iceland's second largest ice cap, Langjökull, which has both surge- and non-surge-type outlets. By differencing elevation change with surface mass balance, we estimate the contribution of ice dynamics to elevation change. We use DEMs, in situ stake measurements, regional reanalyses and a mass-balance model to calculate the vertical ice velocity. Thus, we not only compare the geodetic, modelled and glaciological mass balances, but also map spatial variations in glacier dynamics. Maps of emergence and submergence velocity successfully highlight the 1998 surge and subsequent quiescence of one of Langjökull's outlets by visualizing both source and sink areas. In addition to observing the extent of traditional surge behaviour (i.e. mass transfer from the accumulation area to the ablation area followed by recharge of the source area), we see peripheral areas where the surge impinged upon an adjacent ridge and subsequently retreated. While mass balances are largely in good agreement, discrepancies between modelled and geodetic mass balance may be explained by inaccurate estimates of precipitation, saturated adiabatic lapse rate or degree-day factors. Nevertheless, the study was ultimately able to investigate dynamic surge behaviour in the absence of in situ measurements during the surge.In situ mass balance survey is a joint effort of the Glaciology Group, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland and the National Power Company (Landsvirkjun). We thank Philippe Crochet and Tómas Jóhannesson from the Icelandic Meteorological Office for providing the gridded climate data and for useful discussions about the climatology of Langjökull. The 2007 lidar data were collected by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Airborne Research and Survey Facility (Grant IPY 07-08). Additional funding was provided by the United States National Science Foundation (Grant No. DGE-1038596), St Catharine’s, St John’s and Trinity Colleges and the University of Cambridge B.B. Roberts and Scandinavian Studies Funds. We thank Cameron Rye for initial help coding the mass balance model.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.5

Elevation Change, Mass Balance, Dynamics, and Surging of Langjökull, Iceland from 1997 to 2007

Glaciers and ice caps around the world are changing quickly, with surge-type behaviour superimposed upon climatic forcing. Here, we study Iceland’s second largest ice cap, Langjökull, which has both surge- and non-surge-type outlets. By differencing elevation change with surface mass balance, we estimate the contribution of ice dynamics to elevation change. We use DEMs, in situ stake measurements, regional reanalyses, and a mass balance model to calculate the vertical ice velocity. Thus, we not only compare the geodetic, modelled, and glaciological mass balances, but also map spatial variations in glacier dynamics. Maps of emergence and submergence velocity successfully highlight the 1998 surge and subsequent quiescence of one of Langjökull’s outlets by visualizing both source and sink areas. In addition to observing the extent of traditional surge behaviour (i.e., mass transfer from the accumulation area to the ablation area followed by recharge of the source area), we see peripheral areas where the surge impinged upon an adjacent ridge and subsequently retreated. While mass balances are largely in good agreement, discrepancies between modelled and geodetic mass balance may be explained by inaccurate estimates of precipitation, saturated adiabatic lapse rate, or degree day factors. Nevertheless, the study was ultimately able to investigate dynamic surge behaviour in the absence of in situ measurements during the surge.In situ mass balance survey is a joint effort of the Glaciology Group, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland and the National Power Company (Landsvirkjun). We thank Philippe Crochet and Tómas Jóhannesson from the Icelandic Meteorological Office for providing the gridded climate data and for useful discussions about the climatology of Langjökull. The 2007 lidar data were collected by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Airborne Research and Survey Facility (Grant IPY 07-08). Additional funding was provided by the United States National Science Foundation (Grant No. DGE-1038596), St Catharine’s, St John’s and Trinity Colleges and the University of Cambridge B.B. Roberts and Scandinavian Studies Funds. We thank Cameron Rye for initial help coding the mass balance model.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.5