The Royal Free Hospital score: a calibrated prognostic model for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit. Comparison with current models and CLIF-SOFA score

Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) is poor. ICU prognostic models are more accurate than liver-specific models. We identified predictors of mortality, developed a novel prognostic score (Royal Free Hospital (RFH) score), and tested it against established prognostic models and the yet unvalidated Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) model

A Combined Score of Circulating miRNAs Allows Outcome Prediction in Critically Ill Patients

Background and aims: Identification of patients with increased risk of mortality represents an important prerequisite for an adapted adequate and individualized treatment of critically ill patients. Circulating micro-RNA (miRNA) levels have been suggested as potential biomarkers at the intensive care unit (ICU), but none of the investigated miRNAs displayed a sufficient sensitivity or specificity to be routinely employed as a single marker in clinical practice. Methods and results: We recently described alterations in serum levels of 7 miRNAs (miR-122, miR-133a, miR-143, miR-150, miR-155, miR-192, and miR-223) in critically ill patients at a medical ICU. In this study, we re-analyzed these previously published data and performed a combined analysis of these markers to unravel their potential as a prognostic scoring system in the context of critical illness. Based on the Youden’s index method, cut-off values were systematically defined for dysregulated miRNAs, and a “miRNA survival score” was calculated. Patients with high scores displayed a dramatically impaired prognosis compared to patients with low values. Additionally, the predictive power of our score could be further increased when the patient’s age was additionally incorporated into this score. Conclusions: We describe the first miRNA-based biomarker score for prediction of medical patients’ outcome during and after ICU treatment. Adding the patients’ age into this score was associated with a further increase in its predictive power. Further studies are needed to validate the clinical utility of this score in risk-stratifying critically ill patients

Predictive validity of the CriSTAL tool for short-term mortality in older people presenting at Emergency Departments: a prospective study

© 2018, The Author(s). Abstract: To determine the validity of the Australian clinical prediction tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CRISTAL) based on objective clinical criteria to accurately identify risk of death within 3 months of admission among older patients. Methods: Prospective study of ≥ 65 year-olds presenting at emergency departments in five Australian (Aus) and four Danish (DK) hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was used to model factors for death prediction; Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve and calibration with bootstrapping techniques were used to describe predictive accuracy. Results: 2493 patients, with median age 78–80 years (DK–Aus). The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% CI 7.7–8.6 vs. 5.8 95% CI 5.6–5.9) and Danish mean 7.1 (95% CI 6.6–7.5 vs. 5.5 95% CI 5.4–5.6). The model with Fried Frailty score was optimal for the Australian cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (AUROC 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the Danish cohort were AUROC 0.764 with Fried and 0.794 using CFS. The most significant independent predictors of short-term death in both cohorts were advanced malignancy, frailty, male gender and advanced age. CriSTAL’s accuracy was only modest for in-hospital death prediction in either setting. Conclusions: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried’s frailty instrument) has good discriminant power to improve prognostic certainty of short-term mortality for ED physicians in both health systems. This shows promise in enhancing clinician’s confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions

Improving Postdischarge Outcomes in Acute Heart Failure

The global burden that acute heart failure (AHF) carries has remained unchanged over the past several decades (1). European registries (2–5) showed that 1-year outcome rates remain unacceptably high (Table 1) and confirm that hospitalization for AHF represents a change in the natural history of the disease process(6). As patients hospitalized for HF have a bad prognosis, it is crucial to utilize hospitalization as an opportunity to: 1) assess the individual components of the cardiac substrate; 2) identify and treat comorbidities; 3) identify early, safe endpoints of therapy to facilitate timely hospital discharge and outpatient follow-up; and 4) implement and begin optimization guideline-directed medical therapies (GDMTs). As outcomes are influenced by many factors, many of which are incompletely understood, a systematic approach is proposed that should start with admission and continues through post-discharge (7)

Prognostic robustness of serum creatinine based AKI definitions in patients with sepsis: a prospective cohort study

Background: It is unclear how modifications in the way to calculate serum creatinine (sCr) increase and in the cut-off value applied, influences the prognostic value of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI). We wanted to evaluate whether these modifications alter the prognostic value of AKI for prediction of mortality at 3 months, 1 and 2 years. Methods: We prospectively included 195 septic patients and evaluated the prognostic value of AKI by using three different algorithms to calculate sCr increase: either as the difference between the highest value in the first 24 h after ICU admission and a pre-admission historical (Delta HIS) or an estimated (Delta EST) baseline value, or by subtracting the ICU admission value from the sCr value 24 h after ICU admission (Delta ADM). Different cut-off levels of sCr increase (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5 mg/dl) were evaluated. Results: Mortality at 3 months, 1 and 2 years in AKI defined as Delta ADM > 0.3 mg/dl was 48.1 %, 63.0 % and 63.0 % vs 27.7 %, 39.8 % and 47.6 % in no AKI respectively (OR(95%CI): 2.42(1.06-5.54), 2.58(1.11-5.97) and 1.87(0.81-4.33); 0.3 mg/dl was the lowest cut-off value that was discriminatory. When AKI was defined as Delta HIS > 0.3 mg/dl or Delta EST > 0.3 mg/dl, there was no significant difference in mortality between AKI and no AKI. Conclusions: The prognostic value of a 0.3 mg/dl increase in sCr, on mortality in sepsis, depends on how this sCr increase is calculated. Only if the evolution of serum creatinine over the first 24 h after ICU admission is taken into account, an association with mortality is found

Presyncope Is Associated with Intensive Care Unit Admission in Emergency Department Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Introduction: Syncope is common among emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and indicates a higher acuity and worse prognosis than in patients without syncope. Whether presyncope carries the same prognostic implications has not been established. We compared incidence of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in three groups of ED PE patients: those with presyncope; syncope; and neither.Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all adults with acute, objectively confirmed PE in 21 community EDs from January 2013–April 2015. We combined electronic health record extraction with manual chart abstraction. We used chi-square test for univariate comparisons and performed multivariate analysis to evaluate associations between presyncope or syncope and ICU admission from the ED, reported as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results: Among 2996 PE patients, 82 (2.7%) had presyncope and 109 (3.6%) had syncope. ICU admission was similar between groups (presyncope 18.3% vs syncope 25.7%) and different than their non-syncope counterparts (either 22.5% vs neither 4.7%; p<0.0001). On multivariate analysis, both presyncope and syncope were independently associated with ICU admission, controlling for demographics, higher-risk PE Severity Index (PESI) class, ventilatory support, proximal clot location, and submassive and massive PE classification: presyncope, aOR 2.79 (95% CI, 1.40, 5.56); syncope, aOR 4.44 (95% CI 2.52, 7.80). These associations were only minimally affected when excluding massive PE from the model. There was no significant interaction between either syncope or presyncope and PESI, submassive or massive classification in predicting ICU admission.Conclusion: Presyncope appears to carry similar strength of association with ICU admission as syncope in ED patients with acute PE. If this is confirmed, clinicians evaluating patients with acute PE may benefit from including presyncope in their calculus of risk assessment and site-of-care decision-making

Glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and cortisol levels on admission to intensive care as predictors of outcome

Objective: To evaluate the predictive value of glycosylated haemoglobin and cortisol on admission, in critical care patients. Design: Prospective, observational, single centre study. Setting: 14 bedded Intensive care unit of a tertiary-level university hospital. Patients: 124 consecutive emergency medical and surgical patients. Methods: Data collected on admission included patient demographics, medical history, medication, diagnosis, type of nutrition, TISS28 score, serum blood glucose, Glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), cortisol, mean arterial blood pressure, and the use of inotropes in the first 24hrs. Daily baseline tests included complete blood count, urea and electrolytes, creatinine, twice weekly liver function tests. The primary outcome measure was intensive care unit mortality. Secondary outcome measures were ITU stay, days of ventilation, peak urea, peak creatinine, lowest platelet count, peak bilirubin, lowest Pa/FiO2, and the number of transfusions. Measurements and results: 124 patients (mean age 56.2 years SD 23.2) were included. Regression analysis was used to identify any potential predictors of outcome: HbA1c levels on admission were not found to be significantly associated with mortality (p=0.51), or any other secondary endpoints listed above. However, subgroup analysis revealed a predictive role of HbA1c with regards to length of ITU stay (p= 0.01) and number of days of ventilation (p=0.007) in those patients with a history of diabetes. Glucose level on admission emerged as an independent marker of mortality (p=0.009). Conclusions: This study suggests that HbA1c may not be a predictor of outcome in the general ITU population but may be of predictive value in diabetic ITU patients. On the other hand, blood glucose levels on admission emerged as a predictor of mortality, whilst no association was found between HbA1c and cortisol levels on admission.peer-reviewe