Estimating ToE Risk Level using CVSS

Security management is about calculated risk and requires continuous evaluation to ensure cost, time and resource effectiveness. Parts of which is to make future-oriented, cost-benefit investments in security. Security investments must adhere to healthy business principles where both security and financial aspects play an important role. Information on the current and potential risk level is essential to successfully trade-off security and financial aspects. Risk level is the combination of the frequency and impact of a potential unwanted event, often referred to as a security threat or misuse. The paper presents a risk level estimation model that derives risk level as a conditional probability over frequency and impact estimates. The frequency and impact estimates are derived from a set of attributes specified in the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The model works on the level of vulnerabilities (just as the CVSS) and is able to compose vulnerabilities into service levels. The service levels define the potential risk levels and are modelled as a Markov process, which are then used to predict the risk level at a particular time

Economic Factors of Vulnerability Trade and Exploitation

Cybercrime markets support the development and diffusion of new attack technologies, vulnerability exploits, and malware. Whereas the revenue streams of cyber attackers have been studied multiple times in the literature, no quantitative account currently exists on the economics of attack acquisition and deployment. Yet, this understanding is critical to characterize the production of (traded) exploits, the economy that drives it, and its effects on the overall attack scenario. In this paper we provide an empirical investigation of the economics of vulnerability exploitation, and the effects of market factors on likelihood of exploit. Our data is collected first-handedly from a prominent Russian cybercrime market where the trading of the most active attack tools reported by the security industry happens. Our findings reveal that exploits in the underground are priced similarly or above vulnerabilities in legitimate bug-hunting programs, and that the refresh cycle of exploits is slower than currently often assumed. On the other hand, cybercriminals are becoming faster at introducing selected vulnerabilities, and the market is in clear expansion both in terms of players, traded exploits, and exploit pricing. We then evaluate the effects of these market variables on likelihood of attack realization, and find strong evidence of the correlation between market activity and exploit deployment. We discuss implications on vulnerability metrics, economics, and exploit measurement.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, 14 table

The Effect of Security Education and Expertise on Security Assessments: the Case of Software Vulnerabilities

In spite of the growing importance of software security and the industry demand for more cyber security expertise in the workforce, the effect of security education and experience on the ability to assess complex software security problems has only been recently investigated. As proxy for the full range of software security skills, we considered the problem of assessing the severity of software vulnerabilities by means of a structured analysis methodology widely used in industry (i.e. the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (\CVSS) v3), and designed a study to compare how accurately individuals with background in information technology but different professional experience and education in cyber security are able to assess the severity of software vulnerabilities. Our results provide some structural insights into the complex relationship between education or experience of assessors and the quality of their assessments. In particular we find that individual characteristics matter more than professional experience or formal education; apparently it is the \emph{combination} of skills that one owns (including the actual knowledge of the system under study), rather than the specialization or the years of experience, to influence more the assessment quality. Similarly, we find that the overall advantage given by professional expertise significantly depends on the composition of the individual security skills as well as on the available information.Comment: Presented at the Workshop on the Economics of Information Security (WEIS 2018), Innsbruck, Austria, June 201

An Overview of Economic Approaches to Information Security Management

The increasing concerns of clients, particularly in online commerce, plus the impact of legislations on information security have compelled companies to put more resources in information security. As a result, senior managers in many organizations are now expressing a much greater interest in information security. However, the largest body of research related to preventing breaches is technical, focusing on such issues as encryption and access control. In contrast, research related to the economic aspects of information security is small but rapidly growing. The goal of this technical note is twofold: i) to provide the reader with an structured overview of the economic approaches to information security and ii) to identify potential research directions

Model-Based Security Testing

Security testing aims at validating software system requirements related to security properties like confidentiality, integrity, authentication, authorization, availability, and non-repudiation. Although security testing techniques are available for many years, there has been little approaches that allow for specification of test cases at a higher level of abstraction, for enabling guidance on test identification and specification as well as for automated test generation. Model-based security testing (MBST) is a relatively new field and especially dedicated to the systematic and efficient specification and documentation of security test objectives, security test cases and test suites, as well as to their automated or semi-automated generation. In particular, the combination of security modelling and test generation approaches is still a challenge in research and of high interest for industrial applications. MBST includes e.g. security functional testing, model-based fuzzing, risk- and threat-oriented testing, and the usage of security test patterns. This paper provides a survey on MBST techniques and the related models as well as samples of new methods and tools that are under development in the European ITEA2-project DIAMONDS.Comment: In Proceedings MBT 2012, arXiv:1202.582

Using Quantitative Methods as Support for Audit of the Distributed Informatics Systems

This paper highlights some issues regarding how an indicators system must be developed and used in an audit process. Distributed systems are presented from de points of view of their main properties, architectures, applications, software quality characteristics and the scope of audit process in such systems. The audit process is defined in accordance to standard ISO 19011 and the main characteristics of this process are highlighted. Before using quantitative methods in audit processes, the framework in which the indicators are built must be defined. There are presented types of indicators used in audit process and classes of measurement scale. An audit process is carried out on different levels and support indicators must be in accordance to audit object. The paper presents some requirements of the indicators depending on the level of audit.Quantitative Methods, Audit Process, Distributed Informatics System

Multi-Layer Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience for Smart Grid

The smart grid is a large-scale complex system that integrates communication technologies with the physical layer operation of the energy systems. Security and resilience mechanisms by design are important to provide guarantee operations for the system. This chapter provides a layered perspective of the smart grid security and discusses game and decision theory as a tool to model the interactions among system components and the interaction between attackers and the system. We discuss game-theoretic applications and challenges in the design of cross-layer robust and resilient controller, secure network routing protocol at the data communication and networking layers, and the challenges of the information security at the management layer of the grid. The chapter will discuss the future directions of using game-theoretic tools in addressing multi-layer security issues in the smart grid.Comment: 16 page

System Security Assurance: A Systematic Literature Review

System security assurance provides the confidence that security features, practices, procedures, and architecture of software systems mediate and enforce the security policy and are resilient against security failure and attacks. Alongside the significant benefits of security assurance, the evolution of new information and communication technology (ICT) introduces new challenges regarding information protection. Security assurance methods based on the traditional tools, techniques, and procedures may fail to account new challenges due to poor requirement specifications, static nature, and poor development processes. The common criteria (CC) commonly used for security evaluation and certification process also comes with many limitations and challenges. In this paper, extensive efforts have been made to study the state-of-the-art, limitations and future research directions for security assurance of the ICT and cyber-physical systems (CPS) in a wide range of domains. We conducted a systematic review of requirements, processes, and activities involved in system security assurance including security requirements, security metrics, system and environments and assurance methods. We highlighted the challenges and gaps that have been identified by the existing literature related to system security assurance and corresponding solutions. Finally, we discussed the limitations of the present methods and future research directions