Analyzing and modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion: a case study of Hangzhou City, China

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban expansion is increasingly important for assisting the decision making related to sustainable urban development. By integrating remote sensing (RS), spatial metrics, and the cellular automata (CA) model, this study explored the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion and simulated future scenarios for Hangzhou City, China. The land cover maps (2002, 2008, and 2013) were derived from Landsat images. Moreover, the spatial metrics were applied to characterize the spatial pattern of urban land. The CA model was developed to simulate three scenarios (Business-As-Usual (BAU), Environmental Protection (EP), and Coordination Development (CD)) based on the various strategies. In addition, the scenarios were further evaluated and compared. The results indicated that Hangzhou City has experienced significant urban expansion, and the urban area has increased by 698.59 km2. Meanwhile, the spatial pattern of urban land has become more fragmented and complex. Hangzhou City will face unprecedented pressure on land use efficiency and coordination development if this historical trend continues. The CD scenario was regarded as the optimized scenario for achieving sustainable development. The findings revealed the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban expansion and provide a support for future urban development

Assessment of future urban growth impact on landscape pattern using cellular automata model: a case study of xuzhou city, china

Understanding and predicting of the urban growth process and its impact have become increasingly important for decision making toward sustainable development. In this paper, we presented a cellular automata model to assess the consequence of future urban growth. The hybrid calibration method combining logistic regression with trial-and-error was applied to estimate the parameters. The study proposed the integration method of Multi-Criteria Evaluation and Analytic Hierarchy Process that can be utilized to effectively translate the qualitative descriptions of scenarios into quantitative spatial analysis. Finally, the comparison of the different scenarios provided an insight into the impacts of different urban development strategies on landscape patterns. The result indicates that CA model can be effectively connected with the urban decision making processes. The moderate development scenario could be considered as the best one in achieving the objectives of compact urban form, good residential environment, as well as environmentally and economically efficient development.

Linnade laienemine Eestis: seire, analüüs ja modelleerimine

Väitekirja elektrooniline versioon ei sisalda publikatsiooneLinnade laienemine, mida iseloomustab vähese tihedusega, ruumiliselt ebaühtlane ja hajutatud areng linna piiridest välja. Kuna linnade laienemine muudab põllumajandus- ja metsamaid ning väikesed muutused linnapiirkondades võivad pikaajaliselt mõjutada elurikkust ja maastikku, on hädavajalik seirata linnade ruumilist laienemist ning modelleerida tulevikku, saamaks ülevaadet suundumustest ja tagajärgedest pikemas perspektiivis. Eestis võeti pärast taasiseseisvumist 1991. aastal vastu maareformi seadus ning algas “maa” üleandmine riigilt eraomandisse. Sellest ajast peale on Eestis toimunud elamupiirkondade detsentraliseerimine, mis on mõjutanud Tallinna ümbruse põllumajandus- ja tööstuspiirkondade muutumist, inimeste elustiili muutusi ning jõukate inimeste elama asumist ühepereelamutesse Tallinna, Tartu ja Pärnu lähiümbruse. Selle aja jooksul on Eesti rahvaarv vähenenud 15,31%. Käesoleva doktoritöö eesmärgiks on "jälgida, analüüsida ja modelleerida Eesti linnade laienemist viimase 30 aasta jooksul ning modelleerida selle tulevikku", kasutades paljusid modelleerimismeetodeid, sealhulgas logistilist regressiooni, mitmekihilisi pertseptronnärvivõrke, rakkautomaate, Markovi ahelate analüüsi, mitme kriteeriumi. hindamist ja analüütilise hierarhia protsesse. Töö põhineb neljal originaalartiklil, milles uuriti linnade laienemist Eestis. Tegu on esimese põhjaliku uuringuga Eesti linnade laienemise modelleerimisel, kasutades erinevaid kaugseireandmeid, mõjutegureid, parameetreid ning modelleerimismeetodeid. Kokkuvõtteks võib öelda, et uusehitiste hajumismustrid laienevad jätkuvalt suuremate linnade ja olemasolevate elamupiirkondade läheduses ning põhimaanteede ümber.Urban expansion is characterized by the low–density, spatially discontinued, and scattered development of urban-related constructions beyond the city boundaries. Since urban expansion changes the agricultural and forest lands, and slight changes in urban areas can affect biodiversity and landscape on a regional scale in the long-term, spatiotemporal monitoring of urban expansion and modeling of the future are essential to provide insights into the long-term trends and consequences. In Estonia, after the regaining independence in 1991, the Land Reform Act was passed, and the transfer of “land” from the state to private ownership began. Since then, Estonia has experienced the decentralization of residential areas affecting the transformation of agricultural and industrial regions around Tallinn, changes in people's lifestyles, and the settling of wealthy people in single-family houses in the suburbs of Tallinn, Tartu, and Pärnu. During this period, Estonia's population has declined dramatically by 15.31%. Therefore, this dissertation aims to "monitor, analyze and model Estonian urban expansion over the last 30 years and simulate its future" using many modeling approaches including logistic regression, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, cellular automata, Markov chain Analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, and analytic hierarchy process. The thesis comprises four original research articles that studied urban expansion in Estonia. So far, this is the first comprehensive study of modeling Estonian urban expansion utilizing various sets of remotely sensed data, driving forces and predictors, and modeling approaches. The scattering patterns of new constructions are expected to continue as the infilling form, proximate to main cities and existing residential areas and taking advantage of main roads in future.https://www.ester.ee/record=b550782

Land-Cover and Land-Use Study Using Genetic Algorithms, Petri Nets, and Cellular Automata

Recent research techniques, such as genetic algorithm (GA), Petri net (PN), and cellular automata (CA) have been applied in a number of studies. However, their capability and performance in land-cover land-use (LCLU) classification, change detection, and predictive modeling have not been well understood. This study seeks to address the following questions: 1) How do genetic parameters impact the accuracy of GA-based LCLU classification; 2) How do image parameters impact the accuracy of GA-based LCLU classification; 3) Is GA-based LCLU classification more accurate than the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC), iterative self-organizing data analysis technique (ISODATA), and the hybrid approach; 4) How do genetic parameters impact Petri Net-based LCLU change detection; and 5) How do cellular automata components impact the accuracy of LCLU predictive modeling. The study area, namely the Tickfaw River watershed (711mi²), is located in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. The major datasets include time-series Landsat TM / ETM images and Digital Orthophoto Quarter Quadrangles (DOQQ’s). LCLU classification was conducted by using the GA, MLC, ISODATA, and Hybrid approach. The LCLU change was modeled by using genetic PN-based process mining technique. The process models were interpreted and input to a CA for predicting future LCLU. The major findings include: 1) GA-based LCLU classification is more accurate than the traditional approaches; 2) When genetic parameters, image parameters, or CA components are configured improperly, the accuracy of LCLU classification, the coverage of LCLU change process model, and/or the accuracy of LCLU predictive modeling will be low; 3) For GA-based LCLU classification, the recommended configuration of genetic / image parameters is generation 2000-5000, population 1000, crossover rate 69%-99%, mutation rate 0.1%-0.5%, generation gap 25%-50%, data layers 16-20, training / testing data size 10000-20000 / 5000-10000, and spatial resolution 30m-60m; 4) For genetic Petri nets-based LCLU change detection, the recommended configuration of genetic parameters is generation 500, population 300, crossover rate 59%, mutation rate 5%, and elitism rate 4%; and 5) For CA-based LCLU predictive modeling, the recommended configuration of CA components is space 6025 * 12993, state 2, von Neumann neighborhood 3 * 3, time step 2-3 years, and optimized transition rules

Land Change Science and the STEPLand Framework : An Assessment of Its Progress

This contribution assesses a new term that is proposed to be established within Land Change Science: Spatio-TEmporal Patterns of Land ('STEPLand'). It refers to a specific workflow for analyzing land-use/land cover (LUC) patterns, identifying and modeling driving forces of LUC changes, assessing socio-environmental consequences, and contributing to defining future scenarios of land transformations. In this article, we define this framework based on a comprehensive meta-analysis of 250 selected articles published in international scientific journals from 2000 to 2019. The empirical results demonstrate that STEPLand is a consolidated protocol applied globally, and the large diversity of journals, disciplines, and countries involved shows that it is becoming ubiquitous. In this paper, the main characteristics of STEPLand are provided and discussed, demonstrating that the operational procedure can facilitate the interaction among researchers from different fields, and communication between researchers and policy makers