Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Introduction to metamodeling for reducing computational burden of advanced analyses with health economic models : a structured overview of metamodeling methods in a 6-step application process

Metamodels can be used to reduce the computational burden associated with computationally demanding analyses of simulation models, though applications within health economics are still scarce. Besides a lack of awareness of their potential within health economics, the absence of guidance on the conceivably complex and time-consuming process of developing and validating metamodels may contribute to their limited uptake. To address these issues, this paper introduces metamodeling to the wider health economic audience and presents a process for applying metamodeling in this context, including suitable methods and directions for their selection and use. General (i.e., non-health economic specific) metamodeling literature, clinical prediction modeling literature, and a previously published literature review were exploited to consolidate a process and to identify candidate metamodeling methods. Methods were considered applicable to health economics if they are able to account for mixed (i.e., continuous and discrete) input parameters and continuous outcomes. Six steps were identified as relevant for applying metamodeling methods within health economics, i.e. 1) the identification of a suitable metamodeling technique, 2) simulation of datasets according to a design of experiments, 3) fitting of the metamodel, 4) assessment of metamodel performance, 5) conduct the required analysis using the metamodel, and 6) verification of the results. Different methods are discussed to support each step, including their characteristics, directions for use, key references, and relevant R and Python packages. To address challenges regarding metamodeling methods selection, a first guide was developed towards using metamodels to reduce the computational burden of analyses of health economic models. This guidance may increase applications of metamodeling in health economics, enabling increased use of state-of-the-art analyses, e.g. value of information analysis, with computationally burdensome simulation models

Towards synthesis for nitrogen fertilisation using a decision support system

Nitrogen (N) fertilisation in crops can be made more efficient by moving from uniform application to meeting variable crop requirements within fields. Within field variable rate N fertilisation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is practically feasible using information from web-based decision support systems (DSS). Data from different source platforms, such as satellite, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or weather stations can be used for fertilisation planning. System output offers information that can be used  to instruct variable rate fertilizer spreaders to increase or decrease fertilizer application rate on-the-go. In Sweden, satellite-based variable rate N fertilisation was available for winter wheat via a DSS, however, the existing module could be improved in different ways. In this thesis work, a new N-uptake model was estimated and opportunities using UAV-based modelling of grain quality were tested. Transferability of UAV-based models to a satellite data scale improved understanding of the complexity of data transfer from UAV-scale to a satellite scale for use in a DSS. Furthermore, it was possible to model crop phenology from historical data, which can improve accuracy of current implemented models, by taking timing of field operations in to account

An Approach of QoS Evaluation for Web Services Design With Optimized Avoidance of SLA Violations

Quality of service (QoS) is an official agreement that governs the contractual commitments between service providers and consumers in respect to various nonfunctional requirements, such as performance, dependability, and security. While more Web services are available for the construction of software systems based upon service-oriented architecture (SOA), QoS has become a decisive factor for service consumers to choose from service providers who provide similar services. QoS is usually documented on a service-level agreement (SLA) to ensure the functionality and quality of services and to define monetary penalties in case of any violation of the written agreement. Consequently, service providers have a strong interest in keeping their commitments to avoid and reduce the situations that may cause SLA violations.However, there is a noticeable shortage of tools that can be used by service providers to either quantitively evaluate QoS of their services for the predication of SLA violations or actively adjust their design for the avoidance of SLA violations with optimized service reconfigurations. Developed in this dissertation research is an innovative framework that tackles the problem of SLA violations in three separated yet connected phases. For a given SOA system under examination, the framework employs sensitivity analysis in the first phase to identify factors that are influential to system performance, and the impact of influential factors on QoS is then quantitatively measured with a metamodel-based analysis in the second phase. The results of analyses are then used in the third phase to search both globally and locally for optimal solutions via a controlled number of experiments. In addition to technical details, this dissertation includes experiment results to demonstrate that this new approach can help service providers not only predicting SLA violations but also avoiding the unnecessary increase of the operational cost during service optimization

CITIZENS AS CONSUMERS: PROFILING E-GOVERNMENT SERVICES’ USERS IN EGYPT VIA DATA MINING TECHNIQUES

This study uses data mining techniques to examine the effect of various demographic, cognitive and psychographic factors on Egyptian citizens’ use of e-government services. Multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP), probabilistic neural network (PNN), classification and regression trees (CART), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) are compared to a standard statistical method (linear discriminant analysis (LDA). The variable sets considered are sex, age, educational level, e-government services perceived usefulness, ease of use, compatibility, subjective norms, trust, civic mindedness, and attitudes. The study shows how it is possible to identify various dimensions of e-government services usage behavior by uncovering complex patterns in the dataset, and also shows the classification abilities of data mining techniques

Drought forecasting in eastern Australia using multivariate adaptive regression spline, least square support vector machine and M5Tree model

Drought forecasting using standardized metrics of rainfall is a core task in hydrology and water resources management. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a rainfall-based metric that caters for different time-scales at which the drought occurs, and due to its standardization, is well-suited for forecasting drought at different periods in climatically diverse region. This study advances drought modelling using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), least square support vector machine (LSSVM), and M5Tree models by forecasting SPI in eastern Australia. MARS model incorporated rainfall as mandatory predictor with month (periodicity), Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, ENSO Modoki and Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0 data added gradually. The performance was evaluated with root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (r2). Best MARS model required different input combinations, where rainfall, sea surface temperature and periodicity were used for all stations, but ENSO Modoki and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices were not required for Bathurst, Collarenebri and Yamba, and the Southern Oscillation Index was not required for Collarenebri. Inclusion of periodicity increased the r2 value by 0.5–8.1% and reduced RMSE by 3.0–178.5%. Comparisons showed that MARS superseded the performance of the other counterparts for three out of five stations with lower MAE by 15.0–73.9% and 7.3–42.2%, respectively. For the other stations, M5Tree was better than MARS/LSSVM with lower MAE by 13.8–13.4% and 25.7–52.2%, respectively, and for Bathurst, LSSVM yielded more accurate result. For droughts identified by SPI ≤ − 0.5, accurate forecasts were attained by MARS/M5Tree for Bathurst, Yamba and Peak Hill, whereas for Collarenebri and Barraba, M5Tree was better than LSSVM/MARS. Seasonal analysis revealed disparate results where MARS/M5Tree was better than LSSVM. The results highlight the importance of periodicity in drought forecasting and also ascertains that model accuracy scales with geographic/seasonal factors due to complexity of drought and its relationship with inputs and data attributes that can affect the evolution of drought events

DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIPS: E-COMMERCE SALES AND KEY EXOGENOUS VARIABLES IN THE PHILIPPINES

This study delves into the complex and evolving landscape of e-commerce in the Philippines, focusing on the relationship between E-Commerce Sales as the endogenous variable and a set of influential exogenous variables, including Digital Marketing Spending, GDP Growth, Internet Penetration, and Mobile Phone Ownership. This research employs a flexible spline modeling approach, uncovers non-linear associations, and offers significant implications for academic understanding and practical applications. The findings underscore the growing impact of Digital Marketing Spending on E-Commerce Sales, revealing the paramount role of online advertising and promotional strategies in the digital marketplace. Moreover, the study explains the intricate interplay between GDP Growth, Internet Penetration, Mobile Phone Ownership, and E-Commerce Sales, highlighting the non-linear nature of these relationships. As the Philippines continues its economic expansion and technological integration, these associations exhibit insightful implications for policymakers, businesses, and e-commerce stakeholders.  Article visualizations