Semiparametric inference in mixture models with predictive recursion marginal likelihood

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in the additional unknown structural parameter. As an alternative to existing profile likelihood methods, we treat predictive recursion as a filter approximation to fitting a fully Bayes model, whereby an approximate marginal likelihood of the structural parameter emerges and can be used for inference. We call this the predictive recursion marginal likelihood. Convergence properties of predictive recursion under model mis-specification also lead to an attractive construction of this new procedure. We show pointwise convergence of a normalized version of this marginal likelihood function. Simulations compare the performance of this new marginal likelihood approach that of existing profile likelihood methods as well as Dirichlet process mixtures in density estimation. Mixed-effects models and an empirical Bayes multiple testing application in time series analysis are also considered

On a likelihood interpretation of adjusted profile likelihoods through refined predictive densities.

In this paper a second-order link between adjusted profile likelihoods and refinements of the estimative predictive density is shown. The result provides a new straightforward interpretation for modified profile likelihoods, that complements results in Severini (1998a) and in Pace and Salvan (2006). Moreover, it outlines a form of consistency to second order between likelihood theory and prediction in frequentist inference

Machine Learning of User Profiles: Representational Issues

As more information becomes available electronically, tools for finding information of interest to users becomes increasingly important. The goal of the research described here is to build a system for generating comprehensible user profiles that accurately capture user interest with minimum user interaction. The research described here focuses on the importance of a suitable generalization hierarchy and representation for learning profiles which are predictively accurate and comprehensible. In our experiments we evaluated both traditional features based on weighted term vectors as well as subject features corresponding to categories which could be drawn from a thesaurus. Our experiments, conducted in the context of a content-based profiling system for on-line newspapers on the World Wide Web (the IDD News Browser), demonstrate the importance of a generalization hierarchy and the promise of combining natural language processing techniques with machine learning (ML) to address an information retrieval (IR) problem.Comment: 6 page