Systems approaches to animal disease surveillance and resource allocation: methodological frameworks for behavioral analysis

While demands for animal disease surveillance systems are growing, there has been little applied research that has examined the interactions between resource allocation, cost-effectiveness, and behavioral considerations of actors throughout the livestock supply chain in a surveillance system context. These interactions are important as feedbacks between surveillance decisions and disease evolution may be modulated by their contextual drivers, influencing the cost-effectiveness of a given surveillance system. This paper identifies a number of key behavioral aspects involved in animal health surveillance systems and reviews some novel methodologies for their analysis. A generic framework for analysis is discussed, with exemplar results provided to demonstrate the utility of such an approach in guiding better disease control and surveillance decisions

Modeling Transmission Dynamics and Control of Vector-Borne Neglected Tropical Diseases

Neglected tropical diseases affect more than one billion people worldwide. The populations most impacted by such diseases are typically the most resource-limited. Mathematical modeling of disease transmission and cost-effectiveness analyses can play a central role in maximizing the utility of limited resources for neglected tropical diseases. We review the contributions that mathematical modeling has made to optimizing intervention strategies of vector-borne neglected diseases. We propose directions forward in the modeling of these diseases, including integrating new knowledge of vector and pathogen ecology, incorporating evolutionary responses to interventions, and expanding the scope of sensitivity analysis in order to achieve robust results

THE EFFECT OF TRUST ON INFORMATION DIFFUSION IN ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORKS

online social networks have a explosive growth in recent years and they provide a perfect platform for information diffusion. Many models have been given to explore the information diffusion procedure and its dynamics. But the trust relationship and memory effect are ignored. Based on the complex network theory, The information diffusion model is proposed and the network users, considered as agents, are classified into susceptible, infected and recovered individuals. The users’ behaviour rule and diffusion process are designed. The proposed agent-based model is tested by simulation experiments in four different complex networks: regular network, small world network, random network and scale-free network. Moreover, the effect of four immunization strategies are explored. The research results show that the influence of users’ trust relationship on different networks is varied, and the vertex weight priority immunization strategy is the best one in all four networks

A mathematical model for assessing the impact of poverty on yaws eradication

AbstractA neglected disease with a nearly forgotten name is making a comeback following a global control programme that almost eradicated it more than forty years ago. Until the 1970s the prevalence of non-venereal treponematosis, including yaws, was greatly reduced after worldwide mass treatment. In 2005, cases were again reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A deterministic model is formulated to investigate the impact of poverty on yaws eradication. Threshold parameters are determined and stabilities analysed. The reproductive number was also used to assess the impact of birth rate in resource-constrained families on the dynamics of yaws. The model was shown to be globally stable whenever the associated reproductive number is less than a unity. Using the Lyapunov function it was proved that whenever the associated reproductive number is greater than a unity an endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable. Results from this theoretical study suggests that if the population of children in the community is dominated by those from resource-constrained families, then yaws eradication will remain difficulty to attain. Thus, more needs to be done in addressing issues such as high fertility rate, overcrowding, poor sanitation, etc. and poverty in general so that yaws epidemic which was successfully controlled several decades ago will cease to reemerge and can easily be eradicated

Risk Anal

This introduction to the special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context about historical efforts to manage polioviruses and reviews the insights from models developed to support risk management and policy development. Following an overview of the contents of the special issue, the introduction explores the road ahead and offers perspective on the legacy of polio eradication.NVPO N37 (FY2005)/PHS HHS/United StatesU01 IP000029/IP/NCIRD CDC HHS/United StatesU2R GH001913/GH/CGH CDC HHS/United States200-2010-M-33679/PHS HHS/United States200-2010-M-35172/PHS HHS/United StatesU66 IP000169/IP/NCIRD CDC HHS/United StatesU50/CCU300860/PHS HHS/United States200-2010-M-33379/PHS HHS/United States2021-02-20T00:00:00Z23550939PMC7896538922

Literature Review - the vaccine supply chain

Vaccination is one of the most effective ways to prevent the outbreak of an infectious disease. This medical intervention also brings about many logistical quest