Development of an advanced artificial intelligent reliability analysis tool to enhance ship operations and maintenance activities

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Establishment of a novel predictive reliability assessment strategy for ship machinery

There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme.There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme

Data-Driven and Hybrid Methods for Naval Applications

The goal of this PhD thesis is to study, design and develop data analysis methods for naval applications. Data analysis is improving our ways to understand complex phenomena by profitably taking advantage of the information laying behind a collection of data. In fact, by adopting algorithms coming from the world of statistics and machine learning it is possible to extract valuable information, without requiring specific domain knowledge of the system generating the data. The application of such methods to marine contexts opens new research scenarios, since typical naval problems can now be solved with higher accuracy rates with respect to more classical techniques, based on the physical equations governing the naval system. During this study, some major naval problems have been addressed adopting state-of-the-art and novel data analysis techniques: condition-based maintenance, consisting in assets monitoring, maintenance planning, and real-time anomaly detection; energy and consumption monitoring, in order to reduce vessel consumption and gas emissions; system safety for maneuvering control and collision avoidance; components design, in order to detect possible defects at design stage. A review of the state-of-the-art of data analysis and machine learning techniques together with the preliminary results of the application of such methods to the aforementioned problems show a growing interest in these research topics and that effective data-driven solutions can be applied to the naval context. Moreover, for some applications, data-driven models have been used in conjunction with domain-dependent methods, modelling physical phenomena, in order to exploit both mechanistic knowledge of the system and available measurements. These hybrid methods are proved to provide more accurate and interpretable results with respect to both the pure physical or data-driven approaches taken singularly, thus showing that in the naval context it is possible to offer new valuable methodologies by either providing novel statistical methods or improving the state-of-the-art ones

Investigating ship system performance degradation and failure criticality using FMECA and artificial neural networks

The goal of all maintenance methods is to eliminate failures or reduce their occurrence. Ex-tended downtime on key ships systems such as power generation plants can lead to undesirable consequences beyond economic and operational losses, especially considering naval vessels. One solution to overcome this challenge is through a system-specific analysis that identifies the most critical component and possible causes of delays be it technical or logistics. In this regard, this paper presents a methodology using FMECA approach that adopts the risk priority number differently to identify Mission Critical Components. This was supported with ANN classification using unsupervised learning to identify patterns in the data that signifies the onset of performance degradation and potential failures onboard an OPV. The study has identified some critical components and failure patterns that contribute to extended downtime based on survey and machinery maintenance reports. Recommendations were provided on preventing/mitigating the failures and how to prioritize existing ship systems maintenance

FAULT DETECTION AND PREDICTION IN ELECTROMECHANICAL SYSTEMS VIA THE DISCRETIZED STATE VECTOR-BASED PATTERN ANALYSIS OF MULTI-SENSOR SIGNALS

Department of System Design and Control EngineeringIn recent decades, operation and maintenance strategies for industrial applications have evolved from corrective maintenance and preventive maintenance, to condition-based monitoring and eventually predictive maintenance. High performance sensors and data logging technologies have enabled us to monitor the operational states of systems and predict fault occurrences. Several time series analysis methods have been proposed in the literature to classify system states via multi-sensor signals. Since the time series of sensor signals is often characterized as very-short, intermittent, transient, highly nonlinear, and non-stationary random signals, they make time series analyses more complex. Therefore, time series discretization has been popularly applied to extract meaningful features from original complex signals. There are several important issues to be addressed in discretization for fault detection and prediction: (i) What is the fault pattern that represents a system???s faulty states, (ii) How can we effectively search for fault patterns, (iii) What is a symptom pattern to predict fault occurrences, and (iv) What is a systematic procedure for online fault detection and prediction. In this regard, this study proposes a fault detection and prediction framework that consists of (i) definition of system???s operational states, (ii) definitions of fault and symptom patterns, (iii) multivariate discretization, (iv) severity and criticality analyses, and (v) online detection and prediction procedures. Given the time markers of fault occurrences, we can divide a system???s operational states into fault and no-fault states. We postulate that a symptom state precedes the occurrence of a fault within a certain time period and hence a no-fault state consists of normal and symptom states. Fault patterns are therefore found only in fault states, whereas symptom patterns are either only found in the system???s symptom states (being absent in the normal states) or not found in the given time series, but similar to fault patterns. To determine the length of a symptom state, we present a symptom pattern-based iterative search method. In order to identify the distinctive behaviors of multi-sensor signals, we propose a multivariate discretization approach that consists mainly of label definition, label specification, and event codification. Discretization parameters are delicately controlled by considering the key characteristics of multi-sensor signals. We discuss how to measure the severity degrees of fault and symptom patterns, and how to assess the criticalities of fault states. We apply the fault and symptom pattern extraction and severity assessment methods to online fault detection and prediction. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework through the following six case studies: abnormal cylinder temperature in a marine diesel engine, automotive gasoline engine knockings, laser weld defects, buzz, squeak, and rattle (BSR) noises from a car door trim (using a typical acoustic sensor array and using acoustic emission sensors respectively), and visual stimuli cognition tests by the P300 experiment.ope

Big data analytics and machine learning of harbour craft vessels to achieve fuel efficiency : a review

The global greenhouse gas emitted from shipping activities is one of the factors contributing to global warming; thus, there is an urgent need to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change. One of the key strategies is to build a vibrant maritime industry with the use of innovation and digital technologies as well as intelligent systems. The digitization of the shipping industry not only provides a competitive edge to the shipping business model but also enhances ship operational and energy efficiency. This review paper focuses on the big data analytics and machine learning applied to harbour craft vessels with the aim to achieve fuel efficiency. The paper reviews the telemetry system requires for the digitalization of harbour craft vessels, its challenges in installation, the vessel monitoring and data transmission system. The commonly used methods for data cleaning are also presented. Last but not least, the paper considers two types of the machine learning systems, i.e., supervised and unsupervised machine learning systems. The multi-linear regression and hidden Markov model for supervised machine learning system and the artificial neural network, grey box model and long short-term memory model for unsupervised machine learning are discussed, and their pros and cons are presented

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version

Component criticality analysis for improved ship machinery reliability

Redundancy in ship systems is provided to ensure operational resilience through equipment backups, which ensure system availability and offline repairs of machinery. The electric power generation system of ships provides the most utility of all systems; hence, it is provided with a good level of standby units to ensure reliable operations. Nonetheless, the occurrence of undesired blackouts is common onboard ships and portends a serious danger to ship security and safety. Therefore, understanding the contributing factors affecting system reliability through component criticality analysis is essential to ensuring a more robust maintenance and support platform for efficient ship operations. In this regard, a hybrid reliability and fault detection analysis using DFTA and ANN was conducted to establish component criticality and related fault conditions. A case study was conducted on a ship power generation system consisting of four marine diesel power generation plants onboard an Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV). Results from the reliability analysis indicate an overall low system reliability of less than 70 percent within the first 24 of the 78 operational months. Component criticality-using reliability importance measures obtained through DFTA was used to identify all components with more than a 40 percent contribution to subsystem failure. Additionally, machine learning was used to aid the reliability analysis through feature engineering and fault identification using Artificial Neural Network classification. The ANN has identified a failure pattern threshold at about 200 kva, which can be attributed to overheating, hence establishing a link between component failure and generator performance