Use and Improvement of Remote Sensing and Geospatial Technologies in Support of Crop Area and Yield Estimations in the West African Sahel

In arid and semi-arid West Africa, agricultural production and regional food security depend largely on small-scale subsistence farming and rainfed crops, both of which are vulnerable to climate variability and drought. Efforts made to improve crop monitoring and our ability to estimate crop production (areas planted and yield estimations by crop type) in the major agricultural zones of the region are critical paths for minimizing climate risks and to support food security planning. The main objective of this dissertation research was to contribute to these efforts using remote sensing technologies. In this regard, the first analysis documented the low reliability of existing land cover products for cropland area estimation (Chapter 2). Then two satellite remote sensing-based datasets were developed that 1) accurately map cropland areas in the five countries of Sahelian West Africa (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger; Chapter 3), and 2) focus on the country of Mali to identify the location and prevalence of the major subsistence crops (millet, sorghum, maize and non-irrigated rice; Chapter 4). The regional cropland area product is distributed as the West African Sahel Cropland area at 30 m (WASC30). The development of the new dataset involved high density training data (380,000 samples) developed by USGS in collaboration with CILSS for training about 200 locally optimized random forest (RF) classifiers using Landsat 8 surface reflectances and vegetation indices and the Google Earth Engine platform. WASC30 greatly improves earlier estimates through inclusion of cropland information for both rainfed and irrigated areas mapped with a class-specific accuracy of 79% across the West Africa Sahel. Used as a mask in crop monitoring systems, the new cropland area data could bring critical insights by reducing uncertainties in xv identification of croplands as crop growth condition metrics are extracted. WASC30 allowed us to derive detailed statistics on cultivated areas in the Sahel, at country and agroclimatic scales. Intensive agricultural zones were highlighted as well. The second dataset, mapping crop types for the country of Mali, is meant to separate signals of different crop types for improved crop yield estimation. The crop type map was used to derive detailed agricultural statistics (e.g. acreage by crop types, spatial distribution) at finer administrative scales than has previously been possible. The crop fraction information by crop type extracted from the map, gives additional details on farmers preferences by regions, and the natural adaptability of different crop types. The final analysis of this dissertation explores the use of ensemble machine learning techniques to predict maize yield in Mali (Chapter 5). Climate data (precipitation and temperature), and vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI, the Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI, and the Normalized Difference Water Index, NDWI) are used as predictors, while actual yields collected in 2017 by the Malian Ministry of Agriculture are the reference data. Random forest presented better predictive performance as compared to boosted regression trees (BRT). Results showed that climate variables have more predictive power for maize yield compared to vegetation indices. Among vegetation indices, the NDWI appeared to be the most influential predictor, maybe because of water requirement of maize and the sensitivity of this index to water in semi-arid regions. Tested with two different independent datasets, one constituted by 20% of the reference information, and another including observed yields for year 2018 (a one-year-left analysis), maize yield predictions were promising for year 2017 (RMSE = 362 kg/ha), but showed higher error for 2018 (RMSE = 707 kg/ha). That is, the fitted model may not capture accurately year to year variabilities in predicted maize yield. In this analysis, predictions were limited to field samples (~600 fields) across the country of Mali. It would be valuable in the future to predict maize yield for each pixel of the new developed crop type map. That will lead to a detailed spatial analysis of maize yield, allowing identification of low yielding regions for targeted interventions which could improve food security. Keywords: Agricultural identification of croplands as crop growth condition metrics are extracted. WASC30 allowed us to derive detailed statistics on cultivated areas in the Sahel, at country and agroclimatic scales. Intensive agricultural zones were highlighted as well. The second dataset, mapping crop types for the country of Mali, is meant to separate signals of different crop types for improved crop yield estimation. The crop type map was used to derive detailed agricultural statistics (e.g. acreage by crop types, spatial distribution) at finer administrative scales than has previously been possible. The crop fraction information by crop type extracted from the map, gives additional details on farmers preferences by regions, and the natural adaptability of different crop types. The final analysis of this dissertation explores the use of ensemble machine learning techniques to predict maize yield in Mali (Chapter 5). Climate data (precipitation and temperature), and vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI, the Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI, and the Normalized Difference Water Index, NDWI) are used as predictors, while actual yields collected in 2017 by the Malian Ministry of Agriculture are the reference data. Random forest presented better predictive performance as compared to boosted regression trees (BRT). Results showed that climate variables have more predictive power for maize yield compared to vegetation indices. Among vegetation indices, the NDWI appeared to be the most influential predictor, maybe because of water requirement of maize and the sensitivity of this index to water in semi-arid regions. Tested with two different independent datasets, one constituted by 20% of the reference information, and another including observed yields for year 2018 (a one-year-left analysis), maize yield predictions were promising for year 2017 (RMSE = 362 kg/ha), but showed higher error for 2018 (RMSE = 707 kg/ha). That is, the fitted model may not capture accurately year to year variabilities in predicted maize yield. In this analysis, predictions were limited to field samples (~600 fields) across the country of Mali. It would be valuable in the future to predict maize yield for each pixel of the new developed crop type map. That will lead to a detailed spatial analysis of maize yield, allowing identification of low yielding regions for targeted interventions which could improve food security

Testing environmental DNA sampling and predictive modeling as means to investigate wood frog (Rana sylvatica) distribution in Alaska and Northern Canada

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017Global amphibian declines over the past 30+ years have led to a greater awareness of amphibian conservation issues. Few amphibian species occur in northern landscapes, however, and the species that do occur are widely dispersed and at the northern extent of their range. Accordingly, amphibian research is not prioritized in northern landscapes. Deficient monitoring practices have resulted in incomplete distribution knowledge that impedes the management of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in Alaska and northern Canada. I developed an environmental DNA detection assay to complement monitoring practices at the northern extent of the wood frog's range. This assay was tested to be species-specific, allowing it to be implemented in areas where wood frogs may co-occur with other amphibian species. It can detect wood frog DNA in environmental samples to a concentration of 1.83 x 10⁻³ pg/μL. I further demonstrate that environmental DNA occurrence data can be used to predict wood frog distribution in the Fairbanks North Star Borough. I combined environmental DNA occurrence data with environmental GIS data and analyzed the resulting dataset with machine learning algorithms to define an ecological niche for the wood frog. This niche, when extrapolated to the landscape, results in a species distribution model that attains 74% predictive accuracy. Lastly, I conducted an environmental DNA mega-transect survey along the Elliot/Dalton Highway corridor in Alaska. I combined the results of this survey with citizen science occurrence data from past and current monitoring projects to create a set of alternative occurrence data. This alternative data was combined with environmental GIS data and analyzed with machine learning algorithms to create a species distribution model that achieves 92% predictive accuracy across Alaska and the Yukon Territory, Canada. These results improve upon prior species distribution models developed for wood frogs in Alaska. They provide deeper insights into potential wood frog distribution at high latitudes and elevations in Alaska, where anecdotal observations have previously been recorded. Adoption and widespread use of an environmental DNA monitoring protocol in under-sampled regions of Alaska and northern Canada will generate larger datasets with wider geographic coverage, leading to models with even higher predictive accuracy. Alternative data, including that obtained from environmental DNA and citizen science monitoring, can boost efforts to further develop baseline knowledge of wood frog occurrence in these areas. Species distribution models generated in this research can help guide these efforts. Increasing knowledge of wood frog distribution may assist conservation managers to designate critical habitat, study climate impacts, and make more informed decisions regarding amphibians in northern landscapes.Chapter 1 Development, validation, and evaluation of an assay for the detection of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in environmental DNA -- Chapter 2 Application of environmental DNA-based occurrence data in modeling wood frog (Rana sylvatica) distribution in Interior Alaska -- Chapter 3 A reassessment of wood frog (Rana sylvatica) distribution in Alaska and northern Canada based on environmental DNA and citizen science -- Conclusion -- References -- Appendices

Land valuation using an innovative model combining machine learning and spatial context

Valuation predictions are used by buyers, sellers, regulators, and authorities to assess the fairness of the value being asked. Urbanization demands a modern and efficient land valuation system since the conventional approach is costly, slow, and relatively subjective towards locational factors. This necessitates the development of alternative methods that are faster, user-friendly, and digitally based. These approaches should use geographic information systems and strong analytical tools to produce reliable and accurate valuations. Location information in the form of spatial data is crucial because the price can vary significantly based on the neighborhood and context of where the parcel is located. In this thesis, a model has been proposed that combines machine learning and spatial context. It integrates raster information derived from remote sensing as well as vector information from geospatial analytics to predict land values, in the City of Springfield. These are used to investigate whether a joint model can improve the value estimation. The study also identifies the factors that are most influential in driving these models. A geodatabase was created by calculating proximity and accessibility to key locations as well as integrating socio-economic variables, and by adding statistics related to green space density and vegetation index utilizing Sentinel-2 -satellite data. The model has been trained using Greene County government data as truth appraisal land values through supervised machine learning models and the impact of each data type on price prediction was explored. Two types of modeling were conducted. Initially, only spatial context data were used to assess their predictive capability. Subsequently, socio-economic variables were added to the dataset to compare the performance of the models. The results showed that there was a slight difference in performance between the random forest and gradient boosting algorithm as well as using distance measures data derived from GIS and adding socioeconomic variables to them. Furthermore, spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to investigate how the distribution of similar attributes related to the location of the land affects its value. This analysis also aimed to identify the disparities that exist in terms of socio-economic structure and to measure their magnitude.Includes bibliographical references

A gray-box model for a probabilistic estimate of regional ground magnetic perturbations: Enhancing the NOAA operational Geospace model with machine learning

We present a novel algorithm that predicts the probability that the time derivative of the horizontal component of the ground magnetic field $dB/dt$ exceeds a specified threshold at a given location. This quantity provides important information that is physically relevant to Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC), which are electric currents { associated to} sudden changes in the Earth's magnetic field due to Space Weather events. The model follows a 'gray-box' approach by combining the output of a physics-based model with machine learning. Specifically, we combine the University of Michigan's Geospace model that is operational at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, with a boosted ensemble of classification trees. We discuss the problem of re-calibrating the output of the decision tree to obtain reliable probabilities. The performance of the model is assessed by typical metrics for probabilistic forecasts: Probability of Detection and False Detection, True Skill Statistic, Heidke Skill Score, and Receiver Operating Characteristic curve. We show that the ML enhanced algorithm consistently improves all the metrics considered.Comment: under revie

Multimedia on the Mountaintop: Using public snow images to improve water systems operation

This paper merges multimedia and environmental research to verify the utility of public web images for improving water management in periods of water scarcity, an increasingly critical event due to climate change. A multimedia processing pipeline fetches mountain images from multiple sources and extracts virtual snow indexes correlated to the amount of water accumulated in the snow pack. Such indexes are used to predict water availability and design the operating policy of Lake Como, Italy. The performance of this informed policy is contrasted, via simulation, with the current operation, which depends only on lake water level and day of the year, and with a policy that exploits official Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) estimated from ground stations data and satellite imagery. Virtual snow indexes allow improving the system performance by 11.6% w.r.t. The baseline operation, and yield further improvement when coupled with official SWE information, showing that the two data sources are complementary. The proposed approach exemplifies the opportunities and challenges of applying multimedia content analysis methods to complex environmental problems

Autonomous Vehicles: Evolution of Artificial Intelligence and Learning Algorithms

The advent of autonomous vehicles has heralded a transformative era in transportation, reshaping the landscape of mobility through cutting-edge technologies. Central to this evolution is the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and learning algorithms, propelling vehicles into realms of unprecedented autonomy. This paper provides a comprehensive exploration of the evolutionary trajectory of AI within autonomous vehicles, tracing the journey from foundational principles to the most recent advancements. Commencing with a current landscape overview, the paper delves into the fundamental role of AI in shaping the autonomous decision-making capabilities of vehicles. It elucidates the steps involved in the AI-powered development life cycle in vehicles, addressing ethical considerations and bias in AI-driven software development for autonomous vehicles. The study presents statistical insights into the usage and types of AI/learning algorithms over the years, showcasing the evolving research landscape within the automotive industry. Furthermore, the paper highlights the pivotal role of parameters in refining algorithms for both trucks and cars, facilitating vehicles to adapt, learn, and improve performance over time. It concludes by outlining different levels of autonomy, elucidating the nuanced usage of AI and learning algorithms, and automating key tasks at each level. Additionally, the document discusses the variation in software package sizes across different autonomy levelsComment: 13 page

A preliminary study of the statistical analyses and sampling strategies associated with the integration of remote sensing capabilities into the current agricultural crop forecasting system

Extending the crop survey application of remote sensing from small experimental regions to state and national levels requires that a sample of agricultural fields be chosen for remote sensing of crop acreage, and that a statistical estimate be formulated with measurable characteristics. The critical requirements for the success of the application are reviewed in this report. The problem of sampling in the presence of cloud cover is discussed. Integration of remotely sensed information about crops into current agricultural crop forecasting systems is treated on the basis of the USDA multiple frame survey concepts, with an assumed addition of a new frame derived from remote sensing. Evolution of a crop forecasting system which utilizes LANDSAT and future remote sensing systems is projected for the 1975-1990 time frame

Challenges and opportunities of using ecological and remote sensing variables for crop pest and disease mapping

Crop pest and diseases are responsible for major economic losses in the agricultural systems in Africa resulting in food insecurity. Potential yield losses for major crops across Africa are mainly caused by pests and diseases. Total losses have been estimated at 70% with approximately 30% caused by inefficient crop protection practices. With newly emerging crop pests and disease, monitoring plant health and detecting pathogens early is essential to reduce disease spread and to facilitate effective management practices. While many pest and diseases can be acquired from another host or via the environment, the majority are transmitted by biological vectors. Thus, vector ecology can serve an indirect explanation of disease cycles, outbreaks, and prevalence. Hence, better understanding of the vector niche and the dependence of pest and disease processes on their specific spatial and ecological contexts is therefore required for better management and control. While research in disease ecology has revealed important life history of hosts with the surrounding environment, other aspects need to be explored to better understand vector transmission and control strategies. For instance, choosing appropriate farming practices have proved to be an alternative to the use of synthetic pesticides. For instance, intercropping can serve as a buffer against the spread of plant pests and pathogens by attracting pests away from their host plant and also increasing the distance between plants of the same species, making it more exigent for the pest to target the main crop. Many studies have explored the potential applications of geospatial technology in disease ecology. However, pest and disease mapping in crops is rather crudely done thus far, using Spatial Distribution Models (SDM) on a regional scale. Previous research has explored climatic data to model habitat suitability and the distribution of different crop pests and diseases. However, there are limitation to using climate data since it ignores the dispersal and competition from other factors which determines the distribution of vectors transmitting the disease, thus resulting in model over prediction. For instance, vegetation patterns and heterogeneity at the landscape level has been identified to play a key role in influencing the vector-host-pathogen transmission, including vector distribution, abundance and diversity at large. Such variables can be extracted from remote sensing dataset with high accuracy over a large extent. The use of remotely sensed variables in modeling crop pest and disease has proved to increase the accuracy and precision of the models by reducing over fitting as compared to when only climatic data which are interpolated over large areas thus disregarding landscape heterogeneity.When used, remotely sensed predictors may capture subtle variances in the vegetation characteristic or in the phenology linked with the niche of the vector transmitting the disease which cannot be explained by climatic variables. Subsequently, the full potential of remote sensing applications to detect changes in habitat condition of species remains uncharted. This study aims at exploring the potential behind developing a framework which integrates both ecological and remotely sensed dataset with a robust mapping/modelling approach with aim of developing an integrated pest management approach for pest and disease affecting both annual and perrennial crops and whom currently there is no cure or existing germplasm to control further spread across sub Saharan Africa.Herausforderungen und Möglichkeiten der Verwendung von ökologischen und Fernerkundungsvariablen für die Schädlings- und Krankheitskartierung Pflanzenschädlinge und Krankheiten in der Landwirtschaft sind für große wirtschaftliche Verluste in Afrika verantwortlich, die zu Ernährungsunsicherheit führen. Die Verluste werden auf 70% geschätzt, wobei etwa 30% auf ineffiziente Pflanzenschutzpraktiken zurückzuführen sind. Bei neu auftretenden Pflanzenschädlingen und Krankheiten ist die Überwachung des Pflanzenzustands und die frühzeitige Erkennung von Krankheitserregern unerlässlich, um die Ausbreitung von Krankheiten zu reduzieren und effektive Managementpraktiken zu erleichtern. Während viele Schädlinge und Krankheiten von einem anderen Wirt oder über die Umwelt erworben werden können, wird die Mehrheit durch biologische Vektoren übertragen. Daraus folgt, dass die Vektorökologie als indirekte Erklärung von Krankheitszyklen, Ausbrüchen und Prävalenz untersucht werden sollte. Um effektive Vektorkontrollmaßnahmen zu entwickeln ist ein besseres Verständnis der ökologischen Vektor-Nischen und der Abhängigkeit von Schädlings- und Krankheits-Prozessen von ihrem spezifischen räumlichen und ökologischen Kontext wichtig. Während die Forschung in der Krankheitsökologie wichtige Lebenszyklen von Wirten mit der Umgebung schon gut aufgezeigt hat, müssen weitere Aspekte noch besser untersucht werden, um Vektorübertragungs- und Kontroll-Strategien zu entwickeln. So hat sich beispielsweise die Wahl geeigneter Anbaumethoden als Alternative zum Einsatz synthetischer Pestizide erwiesen. In einigen Fällen wurde der Zwischenfruchtanbau als ‚Puffer' gegen die Ausbreitung von Pflanzenschädlingen und Krankheitserregern vorgeschlagen. Bei diesem Anbausystem werden Schädlinge von ihrer Wirtspflanze abgezogen und auch der Abstand zwischen Pflanzen derselben Art vergrößert (was eine Übertragung erschwert). Viele Studien haben bereits die Einsatzmöglichkeiten von Geodaten in der Krankheitsökologie untersucht. Die Kartierung von Schädlingen und Krankheiten in Nutzpflanzen ist jedoch bisher eher großskalig erfolgt, unter der Zunahme von sogenannten ‚Spatial Distribution Models (SDM)' auf regionaler Ebene. Etliche Studien haben diesbezüglich klimatische Daten verwendet, um die Eignung und Verteilung verschiedener Pflanzenschädlinge und Krankheiten zu modellieren. Es gibt jedoch Einschränkungen bei der Verwendung von Klimadaten, da dabei andere landschaftsbezogene Verbreitungs-Faktoren ignoriert werden, die die Verteilung der Vektoren und Krankheitserreger bestimmen, was zu einer Modell-Überprognose führt. Vegetationsmuster und Heterogenität auf Landschaftsebene beeinflussen maßgeblich die Diversität und Verteilung eines Vektors und spielen somit eine wichtige Rolle bei der Vektor-Wirt-Pathogen-Übertragung. Bei der Verwendung von Fernerkundungsdaten können subtile Abweichungen in der Vegetationscharakteristik oder in der Phänologie, die mit der Nische des Vektors verbunden sind, besser erfasst werden. Es besteht noch Forschungs-Bedarf hinsichtlich der Rolle von Fernerkundungsdaten bei der Verbesserung von Artenmodellen, die zum Ziel haben den Lebensraum von Krankheitsvektoren besser zu erfassen. Ziel dieser Studie ist es, das Potenzial für die Entwicklung eines Rahmens zu untersuchen, der sowohl ökologische als auch aus der Ferne erfasste Daten mit einem robusten Mapping- / Modellierungsansatz kombiniert, um einen integrierten Ansatz zur Schädlingsbekämpfung für Schädlinge und Krankheiten zu entwickeln, der sowohl einjährige als auch mehrjährige Kulturpflanzen betrifft Keine Heilung oder vorhandenes Keimplasma zur weiteren Verbreitung in Afrika südlich der Sahara

GRTS and Graphs: Monitoring Natural Resources in Urban Landscapes

Environmental monitoring programs are an important tool for providing land managers with a scientific basis for management decisions. However, many ecological processes operate on spatial scales that transcend management boundaries (Schonewald-Cox 1988). For example, adjacent lands may influence protected-area resources via edge effects, source-sink dynamics, or invasion processes (Jones et al. 2009). Hydrologic alterations outside management units also may have profound effects on the integrity of resources being managed (Pringle 2000). The impacts of climate change are presenting challenges to resource management at local-to-global scales (Karl et al. 2009). This potential disparity between ecological and political boundaries presents an interesting dilemma for natural resource monitoring and is readily apparent in urban and agricultural environments, which tend to be dominated by external stressors (Collins et al. 2000). Despite their limited control over external land use, natural resource managers are concerned with processes such as development in the surrounding landscape, as these may lead to habitat loss and degradation that directly impair their resources. As a consequence, the management of the natural resources in and around parks and other areas requires a broad and dynamic understanding of the spatio-temporal patterns of environmental change. If monitoring is to be successful in providing data that inform management, information about regional and landscape context should play a critical role in designing monitoring strategies