Local Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Automatic Approaches

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental component in the efficient management of power systems, which has been studied intensively over the past 50 years. The emerging development of smart grid technologies is posing new challenges as well as opportunities to STLF. Load data, collected at higher geographical granularity and frequency through thousands of smart meters, allows us to build a more accurate local load forecasting model, which is essential for local optimization of power load through demand side management. With this paper, we show how several existing approaches for STLF are not applicable on local load forecasting, either because of long training time, unstable optimization process, or sensitivity to hyper-parameters. Accordingly, we select five models suitable for local STFL, which can be trained on different time-series with limited intervention from the user. The experiment, which consists of 40 time-series collected at different locations and aggregation levels, revealed that yearly pattern and temperature information are only useful for high aggregation level STLF. On local STLF task, the modified version of double seasonal Holt-Winter proposed in this paper performs relatively well with only 3 months of training data, compared to more complex methods

Battery optimization in microgrids using Markov decision process integrated with load and solar forecasting

Rising climatic concerns call for unconventional/renewable energy sources which reduce the carbon footprint. Microgrids that integrate a variety of renewable energy resources play a key role in utilizing these energy resources in a more efficient and environmentally friendly manner. Battery systems effectively help to utilize these energy resources more efficiently. This research work presents a framework based on Markov Decision Process (MDP) integrated with load and solar forecasting to derive an optimal charging/discharging action of Battery with rolling horizon implementation. The load forecasting regression models are discussed and developed. Also, various solar forecasting models like clear sky, multi-regression and Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Network model with Exogenous time-series are discussed and compared. The control algorithm is developed to reduce the monthly billing cost by reducing the peak load demand while also maintaining the state of charge of the battery. The presented work simulates the control algorithm for one month based on historic load and solar data. The results indicate substantial cost savings are possible with the proposed algorithm --Abstract, page iii

Control and management of energy storage systems in microgrids

The rate of integration of the renewable energy sources in modern grids have significantly increased in the last decade. These intermittent, non-dispatchable renewable sources, though environment friendly tend to be grid unfriendly. This is precisely due to the issues pertaining to grid congestion, voltage regulation and stability of grids being reported as a result of the incorporation of renewable sources. In this scenario, the use of energy storage systems (ESS ) in electric grids is being widely proposed to overcome these issues. However, integrating energy storage systems alone will not compensate for the issue created by renewable generation. The control and management of the ESS should be done optimally so that their full capabilities are exploited to overcome the issues in the power grids and to ensure their lower cost of investment by prolonging ESS lifetime through minimising degradation. Motivated by this aspect this Ph.D work focusses on developing an efficient, optimal control and management strategy for ESS in a microgrid, especially hybrid ESS. The Ph.D work addresses this issue by proposing a hierarchical control scheme comprising of a lower power management and higher energy management stage with contributions in each stage. In the power management stage this work focusses on improving aspects of real time control of power converters interfacing ESS to grid and the microgrid system as whole. The work proposes control systems with improved dynamic behaviour for power converters based on the reset control framework. In the microgrid control the work presents a primary+secondary control scheme with improved voltage regulation performance under disturbances, using an observer. The real time power splitting strategies among hybrid ESS accounting for the ESS operating efficiencies and degradation mechanisms will also be addressed in the primary+secondary control of power management stage. The design criteria, stability and robustness analysis will be carried out, along with simulation or experimental verifications. In the higher level energy management stage, the contribution of this work involves application of an economic MPC framework for the management of ESS in microgrids. The work specifically addresses the problems of mitigating grid congestion from renewable power feed-in, minimising ESS degradation and maximising self consumption of generated renewable energy using the MPC based energy management system. A survey of the forecasting methods that can be used for MPC will be carried out and a neural network based forecasting unit for time series prediction will be developed. The practical issue of accounting for forecasting error in the decision making of MPC will be addressed and impact of the resulting conservative decision making on the system performance will be analysed. The improvement in performance with the proposed energy management scheme will be demonstrated and quantified.La integración de las fuentes de energía renovables en las redes modernas ha aumentado significativamente en la última década. Estas fuentes renovables, aunque muy convenientes para el medio ambiente son de naturaleza intermitente, y son no panificables, cosa que genera problemas en la red de distribución. Esto se debe precisamente a los problemas relacionados con la congestión de la red y la regulación del voltaje. En este escenario, el uso de sistemas de almacenamiento de energía (ESS) en redes eléctricas está siendo ampliamente propuesto para superar estos problemas. Sin embargo, la integración de sistemas de almacenamiento de energía por sí solos no compensará el problema creado por la generación renovable. El control y la gestión del ESS deben realizarse de manera óptima, de modo que se aprovechen al máximo sus capacidades para superar los problemas en las redes eléctricas, garantizar un coste de inversión razonable y prolongar la vida útil del ESS minimizando su degradación. Motivado por esta problemática, esta tesis doctoral se centra en desarrollar una estrategia de control y gestión eficiente para los ESS integrados en una microrred, especialmente cuando se trata de ESS de naturaleza. El trabajo de doctorado propone un esquema de control jerárquico compuesto por un control de bajo nivel y una parte de gestión de energía operando a más alto nivel. El trabajo realiza aportaciones en los dos campos. En el control de bajo nivel, este trabajo se centra en mejorar aspectos del control en tiempo real de los convertidores que interconectan el ESS con la red y el sistema de micro red en su conjunto. El trabajo propone sistemas de control con comportamiento dinámico mejorado para convertidores de potencia desarrollados en el marco del control de tipo reset. En el control de microrred, el trabajo presenta un esquema de control primario y uno secundario con un rendimiento de regulación de voltaje mejorado bajo perturbaciones, utilizando un observador. Además, el trabajo plantea estrategias de reparto del flujo de potencia entre los diferentes ESS. Durante el diseño de estos algoritmos de control se tienen en cuenta los mecanismos de degradación de los diferentes ESS. Los algoritmos diseñados se validarán mediante simulaciones y trabajos experimentales. En el apartado de gestión de energía, la contribución de este trabajo se centra en la aplicación del un control predictivo económico basado en modelo (EMPC) para la gestión de ESS en microrredes. El trabajo aborda específicamente los problemas de mitigar la congestión de la red a partir de la alimentación de energía renovable, minimizando la degradación de ESS y maximizando el autoconsumo de energía renovable generada. Se ha realizado una revisión de los métodos de predicción del consumo/generación que pueden usarse en el marco del EMPC y se ha desarrollado un mecanismo de predicción basado en el uso de las redes neuronales. Se ha abordado el análisis del efecto del error de predicción sobre el EMPC y el impacto que la toma de decisiones conservadoras produce en el rendimiento del sistema. La mejora en el rendimiento del esquema de gestión energética propuesto se ha cuantificado.La integració de les fonts d'energia renovables a les xarxes modernes ha augmentat significativament en l’última dècada. Aquestes fonts renovables, encara que molt convenients per al medi ambient són de naturalesa intermitent, i són no panificables, cosa que genera problemes a la xarxa de distribució. Això es deu precisament als problemes relacionats amb la congestió de la xarxa i la regulació de la tensió. En aquest escenari, l’ús de sistemes d'emmagatzematge d'energia (ESS) en xarxes elèctriques està sent àmpliament proposat per superar aquests problemes. No obstant això, la integració de sistemes d'emmagatzematge d'energia per si sols no compensarà el problema creat per la generació renovable. El control i la gestió de l'ESS s'han de fer de manera _optima, de manera que s'aprofitin al màxim les seves capacitats per superar els problemes en les xarxes elèctriques, garantir un cost d’inversió raonable i allargar la vida útil de l'ESS minimitzant la seva degradació. Motivat per aquesta problemàtica, aquesta tesi doctoral es centra a desenvolupar una estratègia de control i gestió eficient per als ESS integrats en una microxarxa, especialment quan es tracta d'ESS de natura híbrida. El treball de doctorat proposa un esquema de control jeràrquic compost per un control de baix nivell i una part de gestió d'energia operant a més alt nivell. El treball realitza aportacions en els dos camps. En el control de baix nivell, aquest treball es centra a millorar aspectes del control en temps real dels convertidors que interconnecten el ESS amb la xarxa i el sistema de microxarxa en el seu conjunt. El treball proposa sistemes de control amb comportament dinàmic millorat per a convertidors de potència desenvolupats en el marc del control de tipus reset. En el control de micro-xarxa, el treball presenta un esquema de control primari i un de secundari de regulació de voltatge millorat sota pertorbacions, utilitzant un observador. A més, el treball planteja estratègies de repartiment de el flux de potència entre els diferents ESS. Durant el disseny d'aquests algoritmes de control es tenen en compte els mecanismes de degradació dels diferents ESS. Els algoritmes dissenyats es validaran mitjanant simulacions i treballs experimentals. En l'apartat de gestió d'energia, la contribució d'aquest treball se centra en l’aplicació de l'un control predictiu econòmic basat en model (EMPC) per a la gestió d'ESS en microxarxes. El treball aborda específicament els problemes de mitigar la congestió de la xarxa a partir de l’alimentació d'energia renovable, minimitzant la degradació d'ESS i maximitzant l'autoconsum d'energia renovable generada. S'ha realitzat una revisió dels mètodes de predicció del consum/generació que poden usar-se en el marc de l'EMPC i s'ha desenvolupat un mecanisme de predicció basat en l’ús de les xarxes neuronals. S'ha abordat l’anàlisi de l'efecte de l'error de predicció sobre el EMPC i l'impacte que la presa de decisions conservadores produeix en el rendiment de el sistema. La millora en el rendiment de l'esquema de gestió energètica proposat s'ha quantificat

Machine Learning Applications for Load Predictions in Electrical Energy Network

In this work collected operational data of typical urban and rural energy network are analysed for predictions of energy consumption, as well as for selected region of Nordpool electricity markets. The regression techniques are systematically investigated for electrical energy prediction and correlating other impacting parameters. The k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN), Random Forest (RF) and Linear Regression (LR) are analysed and evaluated both by using continuous and vertical time approach. It is observed that for 30 minutes predictions the RF Regression has the best results, shown by a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in the range of 1-2 %. kNN show best results for the day-ahead forecasting with MAPE of 2.61 %. The presented vertical time approach outperforms the continuous time approach. To enhance pre-processing stage, refined techniques from the domain of statistics and time series are adopted in the modelling. Reducing the dimensionality through principal components analysis improves the predictive performance of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). In the case of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) networks, the results for all the seasons are improved through principal components analysis (PCA). This work also considers abnormal operation due to various instances (e.g. random effect, intrusion, abnormal operation of smart devices, cyber-threats, etc.). In the results of kNN, iforest and Local Outlier Factor (LOF) on urban area data and from rural region data, it is observed that the anomaly detection for the scenarios are different. For the rural region, most of the anomalies are observed in the latter timeline of the data concentrated in the last year of the collected data. For the urban area data, the anomalies are spread out over the entire timeline. The frequency of detected anomalies where considerably higher for the rural area load demand than for the urban area load demand. Observing from considered case scenarios, the incidents of detected anomalies are more data driven, than exceptions in the algorithms. It is observed that from the domain knowledge of smart energy systems the LOF is able to detect observations that could not have detected by visual inspection alone, in contrast to kNN and iforest. Whereas kNN and iforest excludes an upper and lower bound, the LOF is density based and separates out anomalies amidst in the data. The capability that LOF has to identify anomalies amidst the data together with the deep domain knowledge is an advantage, when detecting anomalies in smart meter data. This work has shown that the instance based models can compete with models of higher complexity, yet some methods in preprocessing (such as circular coding) does not function for an instance based learner such as k-Nearest Neighbor, and hence kNN can not option for this kind of complexity even in the feature engineering of the model. It will be interesting for the future work of electrical load forecasting to develop solution that combines a high complexity in the feature engineering and have the explainability of instance based models.publishedVersio

Load forecast on a Micro Grid level through Machine Learning algorithms

As Micro Redes constituem um sector em crescimento da indústria energética, representando uma mudança de paradigma, desde as remotas centrais de geração até à produção mais localizada e distribuída. A capacidade de isolamento das principais redes elétricas e atuar de forma independente tornam as Micro Redes em sistemas resilientes, capazes de conduzir operações flexíveis em paralelo com a prestação de serviços que tornam a rede mais competitiva. Como tal, as Micro Redes fornecem energia limpa eficiente de baixo custo, aprimoram a coordenação dos ativos e melhoram a operação e estabilidade da rede regional de eletricidade, através da capacidade de resposta dinâmica aos recursos energéticos. Para isso, necessitam de uma coordenação de gestão inteligente que equilibre todas as tecnologias ao seu dispor. Daqui surge a necessidade de recorrer a modelos de previsão de carga e de produção robustos e de confiança, que interligam a alocação dos recursos da rede perante as necessidades emergentes. Sendo assim, foi desenvolvida a metodologia HALOFMI, que tem como principal objetivo a criação de um modelo de previsão de carga para 24 horas. A metodologia desenvolvida é constituída, numa primeira fase, por uma abordagem híbrida de multinível para a criação e escolha de atributos, que alimenta uma rede neuronal (Multi-Layer Perceptron) sujeita a um ajuste de híper-parâmetros. Posto isto, numa segunda fase são testados dois modos de aplicação e gestão de dados para a Micro Rede. A metodologia desenvolvida é aplicada em dois casos de estudo: o primeiro é composto por perfis de carga agregados correspondentes a dados de clientes em Baixa Tensão Normal e de Unidades de Produção e Autoconsumo (UPAC). Este caso de estudo apresenta-se como um perfil de carga elétrica regular e com contornos muito suaves. O segundo caso de estudo diz respeito a uma ilha turística e representa um perfil irregular de carga, com variações bruscas e difíceis de prever e apresenta um desafio maior em termos de previsão a 24-horas A partir dos resultados obtidos, é avaliado o impacto da integração de uma seleção recursiva inteligente de atributos, seguido por uma viabilização do processo de redução da dimensão de dados para o operador da Micro Rede, e por fim uma comparação de estimadores usados no modelo de previsão, através de medidores de erros na performance do algoritmo.Micro Grids constitute a growing sector of the energetic industry, representing a paradigm shift from the central power generation plans to a more distributed generation. The capacity to work isolated from the main electric grid make the MG resilient system, capable of conducting flexible operations while providing services that make the network more competitive. Additionally, Micro Grids supply clean and efficient low-cost energy, enhance the flexible assets coordination and improve the operation and stability of the of the local electric grid, through the capability of providing a dynamic response to the energetic resources. For that, it is required an intelligent coordination which balances all the available technologies. With this, rises the need to integrate accurate and robust load and production forecasting models into the MG management platform, thus allowing a more precise coordination of the flexible resource according to the emerging demand needs. For these reasons, the HALOFMI methodology was developed, which focus on the creation of a precise 24-hour load forecast model. This methodology includes firstly, a hybrid multi-level approach for the creation and selection of features. Then, these inputs are fed to a Neural Network (Multi-Layer Perceptron) with hyper-parameters tuning. In a second phase, two ways of data operation are compared and assessed, which results in the viability of the network operating with a reduced number of training days without compromising the model's performance. Such process is attained through a sliding window application. Furthermore, the developed methodology is applied in two case studies, both with 15-minute timesteps: the first one is composed by aggregated load profiles of Standard Low Voltage clients, including production and self-consumption units. This case study presents regular and very smooth load profile curves. The second case study concerns a touristic island and represents an irregular load curve with high granularity with abrupt variations. From the attained results, it is evaluated the impact of integrating a recursive intelligent feature selection routine, followed by an assessment on the sliding window application and at last, a comparison on the errors coming from different estimators for the model, through several well-defined performance metrics

Advances in Theoretical and Computational Energy Optimization Processes

The paradigm in the design of all human activity that requires energy for its development must change from the past. We must change the processes of product manufacturing and functional services. This is necessary in order to mitigate the ecological footprint of man on the Earth, which cannot be considered as a resource with infinite capacities. To do this, every single process must be analyzed and modified, with the aim of decarbonising each production sector. This collection of articles has been assembled to provide ideas and new broad-spectrum contributions for these purposes

Review of Low Voltage Load Forecasting: Methods, Applications, and Recommendations

The increased digitalisation and monitoring of the energy system opens up numerous opportunities to decarbonise the energy system. Applications on low voltage, local networks, such as community energy markets and smart storage will facilitate decarbonisation, but they will require advanced control and management. Reliable forecasting will be a necessary component of many of these systems to anticipate key features and uncertainties. Despite this urgent need, there has not yet been an extensive investigation into the current state-of-the-art of low voltage level forecasts, other than at the smart meter level. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the landscape, current approaches, core applications, challenges and recommendations. Another aim of this paper is to facilitate the continued improvement and advancement in this area. To this end, the paper also surveys some of the most relevant and promising trends. It establishes an open, community-driven list of the known low voltage level open datasets to encourage further research and development.Comment: 37 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, review pape