Enhancing Stock Movement Prediction with Adversarial Training

This paper contributes a new machine learning solution for stock movement prediction, which aims to predict whether the price of a stock will be up or down in the near future. The key novelty is that we propose to employ adversarial training to improve the generalization of a neural network prediction model. The rationality of adversarial training here is that the input features to stock prediction are typically based on stock price, which is essentially a stochastic variable and continuously changed with time by nature. As such, normal training with static price-based features (e.g. the close price) can easily overfit the data, being insufficient to obtain reliable models. To address this problem, we propose to add perturbations to simulate the stochasticity of price variable, and train the model to work well under small yet intentional perturbations. Extensive experiments on two real-world stock data show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art solution with 3.11% relative improvements on average w.r.t. accuracy, validating the usefulness of adversarial training for stock prediction task.Comment: IJCAI 201

Cashtag piggybacking: uncovering spam and bot activity in stock microblogs on Twitter

Microblogs are increasingly exploited for predicting prices and traded volumes of stocks in financial markets. However, it has been demonstrated that much of the content shared in microblogging platforms is created and publicized by bots and spammers. Yet, the presence (or lack thereof) and the impact of fake stock microblogs has never systematically been investigated before. Here, we study 9M tweets related to stocks of the 5 main financial markets in the US. By comparing tweets with financial data from Google Finance, we highlight important characteristics of Twitter stock microblogs. More importantly, we uncover a malicious practice - referred to as cashtag piggybacking - perpetrated by coordinated groups of bots and likely aimed at promoting low-value stocks by exploiting the popularity of high-value ones. Among the findings of our study is that as much as 71% of the authors of suspicious financial tweets are classified as bots by a state-of-the-art spambot detection algorithm. Furthermore, 37% of them were suspended by Twitter a few months after our investigation. Our results call for the adoption of spam and bot detection techniques in all studies and applications that exploit user-generated content for predicting the stock market

"Uncertainty, Conventional Behavior, and Economic Sociology"

This paper addresses the problem of the conceptualization of social structure and its relationship to human agency in economic sociology. The background is provided by John Maynard KeynesÕs observations on the effects of uncertainty and conventional behavior on the stock market; the analysis consists of a comparison of the social ontologies of the French Intersubjectivist School and the Economics as Social Theory Project in the light of these observations. The theoretical argument is followed by concrete examples drawn from a prominent recent study of the stock market boom of the 1990s.

Uncertainty, Conventional Behavior, and Economic Sociology

This paper addresses the problem of the conceptualization of social structure and its relationship to human agency in economic sociology. The background is provided by John Maynard Keynes's observations on the effects of uncertainty and conventional behavior on the stock market; the analysis consists of a comparison of the social ontologies of the French Intersubjectivist School and the Economics as Social Theory Project in the light of these observations. The theoretical argument is followed by concrete examples drawn from a prominent recent study of the stock market boom of the 1990s.

Can Google Trends search queries contribute to risk diversification?

Portfolio diversification and active risk management are essential parts of financial analysis which became even more crucial (and questioned) during and after the years of the Global Financial Crisis. We propose a novel approach to portfolio diversification using the information of searched items on Google Trends. The diversification is based on an idea that popularity of a stock measured by search queries is correlated with the stock riskiness. We penalize the popular stocks by assigning them lower portfolio weights and we bring forward the less popular, or peripheral, stocks to decrease the total riskiness of the portfolio. Our results indicate that such strategy dominates both the benchmark index and the uniformly weighted portfolio both in-sample and out-of-sample.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure