Spatially Aware Ensemble-Based Learning to Predict Weather-Related Outages in Transmission

This paper describes the implementation of prediction model for real-time assessment of weather related outages in the electric transmission system. The network data and historical outages are correlated with variety of weather sources in order to construct the knowledge extraction platform for accurate outage probability prediction. An extension of logistic regression prediction model that embeds the spatial configuration of the network was used for prediction. The results show that developed algorithm has very high accuracy and is able to differentiate the outage area from the rest of the network in 1 to 3 hours before the outage. The prediction algorithm is integrated inside weather testbed for real-time mapping of network outage probabilities using incoming weather forecast

Feature Papers of Forecasting 2021

This book focuses on fundamental and applied research on forecasting methods and analyses on how forecasting can affect a great number of fields, spanning from Computer Science, Engineering, and Economics and Business to natural sciences. Forecasting applications are increasingly important because they allow for improving decision-making processes by providing useful insights about the future. Scientific research is giving unprecedented attention to forecasting applications, with a continuously growing number of articles about novel forecast approaches being publishe

Quantification and mitigation of the impacts of extreme weather on power system resilience and reliability

Modelling the impact of extreme weather on power systems is a computationally expensive, challenging area of study due to the diversity of threats, complicatedness of modelling, and data and simulation requirements to perform the relevant studies. The impacts of extreme weather – specifically wind – are considered. Factors such as the distribution of outage probability on lines and the potential correlation with wind power generation during storms are investigated; so too is sensitivity of security assessments involving extreme wind to the relationships used between failures and the natural hazard being studied, specifically wind speed. A large scale simulation ensemble is developed and demonstrated to investigate what are deemed the most significant features of power system simulation during extreme weather events. The challenges associated with modelling high impact low probability (HILP) events are studied and demonstrate that the results of security assessments are significantly affected by the granularity of incident weather data being used and the corrections or interpolation being applied to the source data. A generalizable simulation framework is formulated and deployed to investigate the significance of the relationship between incident natural hazards, in this case wind, and its corresponding impact on system resilience. Based on this, a large-scale simulation model is developed and demonstrated to take consideration of a wide variety of factors which can affect power systems during extreme weather events including, but not limited to, under frequency load shedding, line overloads, and high wind speed shutdown and its impact on wind generation. A methodology for quantifying and visualising distributed overhead line failure risk is also demonstrated in tandem with straightforward methods for making wind power projections over transmission systems for security studies. The potential correlation between overhead line risk and wind power generation risk is illustrated visually on representations of GB power networks based on real world data.Open Acces

Feature Papers of Forecasting 2021

Articles in this book are Open Access and distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which allows users to download, copy and build upon published articles, as long as the author and publisher are properly credited, which ensures maximum dissemination and a wider impact of our publications. The book as a whole is distributed by MDPI under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons license CC BY-NC-ND

Advancements in Enhancing Resilience of Electrical Distribution Systems: A Review on Frameworks, Metrics, and Technological Innovations

This comprehensive review paper explores power system resilience, emphasizing its evolution, comparison with reliability, and conducting a thorough analysis of the definition and characteristics of resilience. The paper presents the resilience frameworks and the application of quantitative power system resilience metrics to assess and quantify resilience. Additionally, it investigates the relevance of complex network theory in the context of power system resilience. An integral part of this review involves examining the incorporation of data-driven techniques in enhancing power system resilience. This includes the role of data-driven methods in enhancing power system resilience and predictive analytics. Further, the paper explores the recent techniques employed for resilience enhancement, which includes planning and operational techniques. Also, a detailed explanation of microgrid (MG) deployment, renewable energy integration, and peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading in fortifying power systems against disruptions is provided. An analysis of existing research gaps and challenges is discussed for future directions toward improvements in power system resilience. Thus, a comprehensive understanding of power system resilience is provided, which helps in improving the ability of distribution systems to withstand and recover from extreme events and disruptions

Assessment of Unmanned Aerial Systems and lidar for the Utility Vegetation Management of Electrical Distribution Rights-of-Ways

Utility Vegetation Management (UVM) is often the largest maintenance expense for many utilities. However, with advances in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS; or more commonly, “drones”) and lidar technologies, vegetation managers may be able to more rapidly and accurately identify vegetation threats to critical infrastructures. The goal of this study was to assess the utility of Geodetics’ UAS-lidar system for vegetation threat assessment for 1.6 km of a distribution electric circuit. We investigated factors which contribute to accurate tree crown detection and segmentation of trees from within an UAS-lidar derived point cloud, and the factors which contribute to accurate tree risk assessment. The study adapted the International Society of Arboriculture’s (ISA) tree risk assessment methodology to the application of remotely sensed tree inventory. We utilized the lidar detected and segmented tree crowns for tree risk analysis based upon each tree’s height, elevation, and location in relation to the electrical infrastructure. The individual tree detection and segmentation results show that our canopy type parameter and the routine used for field- and lidar-derived tree matching to have the largest effect on the classification agreement of field and lidar derived datasets. The Threat Detection classification also demonstrated a significant effect due to our canopy modeling parameter, where single canopy models possessed higher average Kappa agreement statistic and divided canopy models detected a larger number of threats on average. Ultimately, our best model was capable of the correct detection, segmentation, matching, and classification of half of the field trees which were determined to be vegetation threats