SPOCC: Scalable POssibilistic Classifier Combination -- toward robust aggregation of classifiers

We investigate a problem in which each member of a group of learners is trained separately to solve the same classification task. Each learner has access to a training dataset (possibly with overlap across learners) but each trained classifier can be evaluated on a validation dataset. We propose a new approach to aggregate the learner predictions in the possibility theory framework. For each classifier prediction, we build a possibility distribution assessing how likely the classifier prediction is correct using frequentist probabilities estimated on the validation set. The possibility distributions are aggregated using an adaptive t-norm that can accommodate dependency and poor accuracy of the classifier predictions. We prove that the proposed approach possesses a number of desirable classifier combination robustness properties

A review of applications of fuzzy sets to safety and reliability engineering

Safety and reliability are rigorously assessed during the design of dependable systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) processes are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). In conventional PRA, failure data about components is required for the purposes of quantitative analysis. In practice, it is not always possible to fully obtain this data due to unavailability of primary observations and consequent scarcity of statistical data about the failure of components. To handle such situations, fuzzy set theory has been successfully used in novel PRA approaches for safety and reliability evaluation under conditions of uncertainty. This paper presents a review of fuzzy set theory based methodologies applied to safety and reliability engineering, which include fuzzy FTA, fuzzy FMEA, fuzzy ETA, fuzzy Bayesian networks, fuzzy Markov chains, and fuzzy Petri nets. Firstly, we describe relevant fundamentals of fuzzy set theory and then we review applications of fuzzy set theory to system safety and reliability analysis. The review shows the context in which each technique may be more appropriate and highlights the overall potential usefulness of fuzzy set theory in addressing uncertainty in safety and reliability engineering

A Procedure for Extending Input Selection Algorithms to Low Quality Data in Modelling Problems with Application to the Automatic Grading of Uploaded Assignments

When selecting relevant inputs in modeling problems with low quality data, the ranking of the most informative inputs is also uncertain. In this paper, this issue is addressed through a new procedure that allows the extending of different crisp feature selection algorithms to vague data. The partial knowledge about the ordinal of each feature is modelled by means of a possibility distribution, and a ranking is hereby applied to sort these distributions. It will be shown that this technique makes the most use of the available information in some vague datasets. The approach is demonstrated in a real-world application. In the context of massive online computer science courses, methods are sought for automatically providing the student with a qualification through code metrics. Feature selection methods are used to find the metrics involved in the most meaningful predictions. In this study, 800 source code files, collected and revised by the authors in classroom Computer Science lectures taught between 2013 and 2014, are analyzed with the proposed technique, and the most relevant metrics for the automatic grading task are discussed.This work was supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad under Project TIN2011-24302, including funding from the European Regional Development Fund

DIAMS revisited: Taming the variety of knowledge in fault diagnosis expert systems

The DIAMS program, initiated in 1986, led to the development of a prototype expert system, DIAMS-1 dedicated to the Telecom 1 Attitude and Orbit Control System, and to a near-operational system, DIAMS-2, covering a whole satellite (the Telecom 2 platform and its interfaces with the payload), which was installed in the Satellite Control Center in 1993. The refinement of the knowledge representation and reasoning is now being studied, focusing on the introduction of appropriate handling of incompleteness, uncertainty and time, and keeping in mind operational constraints. For the latest generation of the tool, DIAMS-3, a new architecture has been proposed, that enables the cooperative exploitation of various models and knowledge representations. On the same baseline, new solutions enabling higher integration of diagnostic systems in the operational environment and cooperation with other knowledge intensive systems such as data analysis, planning or procedure management tools have been introduced

A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters

International audienc

Assessing productive efficiency of banks using integrated Fuzzy-DEA and bootstrapping:a case of Mozambican banks

Performance analysis has become a vital part of the management practices in the banking industry. There are numerous applications using DEA models to estimate efficiency in banking, and most of them assume that inputs and outputs are known with absolute precision. Here, we propose new Fuzzy-DEA α-level models to assess underlying uncertainty. Further, bootstrap truncated regressions with fixed factors are used to measure the impact of each model on the efficiency scores and to identify the most relevant contextual variables on efficiency. The proposed models have been demonstrated using an application in Mozambican banks to handle the underlying uncertainty. Findings reveal that fuzziness is predominant over randomness in interpreting the results. In addition, fuzziness can be used by decision-makers to identify missing variables to help in interpreting the results. Price of labor, price of capital, and market-share were found to be the significant factors in measuring bank efficiency. Managerial implications are addressed