A probabilistic analysis of selected notions of iterated conditioning under coherence

It is well known that basic conditionals satisfy some desirable basic logical and probabilistic properties, such as the compound probability theorem. However checking the validity of these becomes trickier when we switch to compound and iterated conditionals. Herein we consider de Finetti's notion of conditional both in terms of a three-valued object and as a conditional random quantity in the betting framework. We begin by recalling the notions of conjunction and disjunction among conditionals in selected trivalent logics. Then we analyze the notions of iterated conditioning in the frameworks of the specific three-valued logics introduced by Cooper-Calabrese, by de Finetti, and by Farrel. By computing some probability propagation rules we show that the compound probability theorem and other important properties are not always preserved by these formulations. Then, for each trivalent logic we introduce an iterated conditional as a suitable random quantity which satisfies the compound prevision theorem as well as some other desirable properties. We also check the validity of two generalized versions of Bayes' Rule for iterated conditionals. We study the p-validity of generalized versions of Modus Ponens and two-premise centering for iterated conditionals. Finally, we observe that all the basic properties are satisfied within the framework of iterated conditioning followed in recent papers by Gilio and Sanfilippo in the setting of conditional random quantities

Frontiers in Psychology / Imprecise Uncertain Reasoning : A Distributional Approach

The contribution proposes to model imprecise and uncertain reasoning by a mental probability logic that is based on probability distributions. It shows how distributions are combined with logical operators and how distributions propagate in inference rules. It discusses a series of examples like the Linda task, the suppression task, Doherty's pseudodiagnosticity task, and some of the deductive reasoning tasks of Rips. It demonstrates how to update distributions by soft evidence and how to represent correlated risks. The probabilities inferred from different logical inference forms may be so similar that it will be impossible to distinguish them empirically in a psychological study. Second-order distributions allow to obtain the probability distribution of being coherent. The maximum probability of being coherent is a second-order criterion of rationality. Technically the contribution relies on beta distributions, copulas, vines, and stochastic simulation.(VLID)311645

Operational Decision Making under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, and Adversarial Approaches

Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the adversarial setting, this work presents a new application of counterfactual regret minimization and robust optimization to a multi-domain cyber and air defense problem in a partially observable environment

Control room agents : an information-theoretic approach

In this thesis, a particular class of agent is singled out for examination. In order to provide a guiding metaphor, we speak of control room agents. Our focus is on rational decision- making by such agents, where the circumstances obtaining are such that rationality is bounded. Control room agents, whether human or non-human, need to reason and act in a changing environment with only limited information available to them. Determining the current state of the environment is a central concern for control room agents if they are to reason and act sensibly. A control room agent cannot plan its actions without having an internal representation (epistemic state) of its environment, and cannot make rational decisions unless this representation, to some level of accuracy, reflects the state of its environment. The focus of this thesis is on three aspects regarding the epistemic functioning of a control room agent: 1. How should the epistemic state of a control room agent be represented in order to facilitate logical analysis? 2. How should a control room agent change its epistemic state upon receiving new information? 3. How should a control room agent combine available information from different sources? In describing the class of control room agents as first-order intentional systems hav- ing both informational and motivational attitudes, an agent-oriented view is adopted. The central construct used in the information-theoretic approach, which is qualitative in nature, is the concept of a templated ordering. Representing the epistemic state of a control room agent by a (special form of) tem- plated ordering signals a departure from the many approaches in which only the beliefs of an agent are represented. Templated orderings allow for the representation of both knowledge and belief. A control room agent changes its epistemic state according to a proposed epistemic change algorithm, which allows the agent to select between two well-established forms of belief change operations, namely, belief revision and belief update. The combination of (possibly conflicting) information from different sources has re- ceived a lot of attention in recent years. Using templated orderings for the semantic representation of information, a new family of purely qualitative merging operations is developed.School of ComputingPh. D. (Computer Science

Proceedings of The Multi-Agent Logics, Languages, and Organisations Federated Workshops (MALLOW 2010)

http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-627/allproceedings.pdfInternational audienceMALLOW-2010 is a third edition of a series initiated in 2007 in Durham, and pursued in 2009 in Turin. The objective, as initially stated, is to "provide a venue where: the cost of participation was minimum; participants were able to attend various workshops, so fostering collaboration and cross-fertilization; there was a friendly atmosphere and plenty of time for networking, by maximizing the time participants spent together"