Data-based mechanistic modelling, forecasting, and control.

This article briefly reviews the main aspects of the generic data based mechanistic (DBM) approach to modeling stochastic dynamic systems and shown how it is being applied to the analysis, forecasting, and control of environmental and agricultural systems. The advantages of this inductive approach to modeling lie in its wide range of applicability. It can be used to model linear, nonstationary, and nonlinear stochastic systems, and its exploitation of recursive estimation means that the modeling results are useful for both online and offline applications. To demonstrate the practical utility of the various methodological tools that underpin the DBM approach, the article also outlines several typical, practical examples in the area of environmental and agricultural systems analysis, where DBM models have formed the basis for simulation model reduction, control system design, and forecastin

Forecasting model for the change in stage of reservoir water level

Reservoir is one of major structural approaches for flood mitigation. During floods, early reservoir water release is one of the actions taken by the reservoir operator to accommodate incoming heavy rainfall. Late water release might give negative effect to the reservoir structure and cause flood at downstream area. However, current rainfall may not directly influence the change of reservoir water level. The delay may occur as the streamflow that carries the water might take some time to reach the reservoir. This study is aimed to develop a forecasting model for the change in stage of reservoir water level. The model considers the changes of reservoir water level and its stage as the input and the future change in stage of reservoir water level as the output. In this study, the Timah Tasoh reservoir operational data was obtained from the Perlis Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID). The reservoir water level was categorised into stages based on DID manual. A modified sliding window algorithm has been deployed to segment the data into temporal patterns. Based on the patterns, three models were developed: the reservoir water level model, the change of reservoir water level and stage of reservoir water level model, and the combination of the change of reservoir water level and stage of reservoir water level model. All models were simulated using neural network and their performances were compared using on mean square error (MSE) and percentage of correctness. The result shows that the change of reservoir water level and stage of reservoir water model produces the lowest MSE and the highest percentage of correctness when compared to the other two models. The findings also show that a delay of two previous days has affected the change in stage of reservoir water level. The model can be applied to support early reservoir water release decision making. Thus, reduce the impact of flood at the downstream area

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Machine Learning with Metaheuristic Algorithms for Sustainable Water Resources Management

The main aim of this book is to present various implementations of ML methods and metaheuristic algorithms to improve modelling and prediction hydrological and water resources phenomena having vital importance in water resource management

Autoregressive time series prediction by means of fuzzy inference systems using nonparametric residual variance estimation

We propose an automatic methodology framework for short- and long-term prediction of time series by means of fuzzy inference systems. In this methodology, fuzzy techniques and statistical techniques for nonparametric residual variance estimation are combined in order to build autoregressive predictive models implemented as fuzzy inference systems. Nonparametric residual variance estimation plays a key role in driving the identification and learning procedures. Concrete criteria and procedures within the proposed methodology framework are applied to a number of time series prediction problems. The learn from examples method introduced by Wang and Mendel (W&M) is used for identification. The Levenberg–Marquardt (L–M) optimization method is then applied for tuning. The W&M method produces compact and potentially accurate inference systems when applied after a proper variable selection stage. The L–M method yields the best compromise between accuracy and interpretability of results, among a set of alternatives. Delta test based residual variance estimations are used in order to select the best subset of inputs to the fuzzy inference systems as well as the number of linguistic labels for the inputs. Experiments on a diverse set of time series prediction benchmarks are compared against least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), and k-NN based autoregressors. The advantages of the proposed methodology are shown in terms of linguistic interpretability, generalization capability and computational cost. Furthermore, fuzzy models are shown to be consistently more accurate for prediction in the case of time series coming from real-world applications.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TEC2008-04920Junta de Andalucía P08-TIC-03674, IAC07-I-0205:33080, IAC08-II-3347:5626

Data mining as a tool for environmental scientists

Over recent years a huge library of data mining algorithms has been developed to tackle a variety of problems in fields such as medical imaging and network traffic analysis. Many of these techniques are far more flexible than more classical modelling approaches and could be usefully applied to data-rich environmental problems. Certain techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks, Clustering, Case-Based Reasoning and more recently Bayesian Decision Networks have found application in environmental modelling while other methods, for example classification and association rule extraction, have not yet been taken up on any wide scale. We propose that these and other data mining techniques could be usefully applied to difficult problems in the field. This paper introduces several data mining concepts and briefly discusses their application to environmental modelling, where data may be sparse, incomplete, or heterogenous

Advanced of Mathematics-Statistics Methods to Radar Calibration for Rainfall Estimation; A Review

Ground-based radar is known as one of the most important systems for precipitation measurement at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Radar data are recorded in digital manner and readily ingested to any statistical analyses. These measurements are subjected to specific calibration to eliminate systematic errors as well as minimizing the random errors, respectively. Since statistical methods are based on mathematics, they offer more precise results and easy interpretation with lower data detail. Although they have challenge to interpret due to their mathematical structure, but the accuracy of the conclusions and the interpretation of the output are appropriate. This article reviews the advanced methods in using the calibration of ground-based radar for forecasting meteorological events include two aspects: statistical techniques and data mining. Statistical techniques refer to empirical analyses such as regression, while data mining includes the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), data Kriging, Nearest Neighbour (NN), Decision Tree (DT) and fuzzy logic. The results show that Kriging is more applicable for interpolation. Regression methods are simple to use and data mining based on Artificial Intelligence is very precise. Thus, this review explores the characteristics of the statistical parameters in the field of radar applications and shows which parameters give the best results for undefined cases. DOI: 10.17762/ijritcc2321-8169.15012

Controlling realism and uncertainty in reservoir models using intelligent sedimentological prior information

Forecasting reservoir production has a large associated uncertainty, since this is the final part of a very complex process, this process is based on sparse and indirect data measurements. One the methodologies used in the oil industry to predict reservoir production is based on the Baye’s theorem. Baye’s theorem applied to reservoir forecasting, samples parameters from a prior understanding of the uncertainty to generate reservoir models and updates this prior information by comparing reservoir production data with model production response. In automatic history matching it is challenging to generate reservoir models that preserve geological realism (obtain reservoir models with geological features that have been seen in nature). One way to control the geological realism in reservoir models is by controlling the realism of the geological prior information. The aim of this thesis is to encapsulate sedimentological information in order to build prior information that can control the geological realism of the history-matched models. This “intelligent” prior information is introduced into the automatic history-matching framework rejecting geologically unrealistic reservoir models. Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) were used to build realistic sedimentological prior information models. Another goal of this thesis was to include geological parameters into the automatic history-match framework that have an impact on reservoir model performance: vertical variation of facies proportions, connectivity of geobodies, and the use of multiple training images as a source of realistic sedimentological prior information. The main outcome of this thesis is that the use of “intelligent” sedimentological prior information guarantees the realism of reservoir models and reduces computing time and uncertainty in reservoir production prediction

Big data analytics:Computational intelligence techniques and application areas

Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations