Part 3: Systemic risk in ecology and engineering

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report -- New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk -- that presents key findings from a cross-disciplinary conference that it cosponsored in May 2006 with the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications. ; The pace of financial innovation over the past decade has increased the complexity and interconnectedness of the financial system. This development is important to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, because of their traditional role in addressing systemic risks to the financial system. ; To encourage innovative thinking about systemic issues, the New York Fed partnered with the National Academy of Sciences to bring together more than 100 experts on systemic risk from 22 countries to compare cross-disciplinary perspectives on monitoring, addressing and preventing this type of risk. ; This report, released as part of the Bank's Economic Policy Review series, outlines some of the key points concerning systemic risk made by the various disciplines represented - including economic research, ecology, physics and engineering - as well as presentations on market-oriented models of financial crises, and systemic risk in the payments system and the interbank funds market. The report concludes with observations gathered from the sessions and a discussion of potential applications to policy. ; The three papers presented in this conference session highlighted the positive feedback effects that produce herdlike behavior in markets, and the subsequent discussion focused in part on means of encouraging heterogeneous investment strategies to counter such behavior. Participants in the session also discussed the types of models used to study systemic risk and commented on the challenges and trade-offs researchers face in developing their models.Financial risk management ; Financial markets ; Financial stability ; Financial crises

Use of groundwater lifetime expectancy for the performance assessment of a deep geologic waste repository: 1. Theory, illustrations, and implications

Long-term solutions for the disposal of toxic wastes usually involve isolation of the wastes in a deep subsurface geologic environment. In the case of spent nuclear fuel, if radionuclide leakage occurs from the engineered barrier, the geological medium represents the ultimate barrier that is relied upon to ensure safety. Consequently, an evaluation of radionuclide travel times from a repository to the biosphere is critically important in a performance assessment analysis. In this study, we develop a travel time framework based on the concept of groundwater lifetime expectancy as a safety indicator. Lifetime expectancy characterizes the time that radionuclides will spend in the subsurface after their release from the repository and prior to discharging into the biosphere. The probability density function of lifetime expectancy is computed throughout the host rock by solving the backward-in-time solute transport adjoint equation subject to a properly posed set of boundary conditions. It can then be used to define optimal repository locations. The risk associated with selected sites can be evaluated by simulating an appropriate contaminant release history. The utility of the method is illustrated by means of analytical and numerical examples, which focus on the effect of fracture networks on the uncertainty of evaluated lifetime expectancy.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures; Water Resources Research, Vol. 44, 200

Microbial Effects on Repository Performance

This report presents a critical review of the international literature on microbial effects in and around a deep geological repository for higher activity wastes. It is aimed at those who are familiar with the nuclear industry and radioactive waste disposal, but who are not experts in microbiology; they may have a limited knowledge of how microbiology may be integrated into and impact upon radioactive waste disposal safety cases and associated performance assessments (PA)

In vivo testing of gold nanoparticles using the Caenorhabditis elegans model organism

Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) are present in many man-made products and cosmetics, and are also used by the food and medical industries. Tight regulations regarding the use of mammalian animals for product testing can hamper the study of the specific interactions between engineered nanoparticles and biological systems. Invertebrate models, such as the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans), can offer alternative approaches during the early phases of nanoparticle discovery. Here, we thoroughly evaluated the biodistribution of 11-nm and 150-nm citrate-capped AuNPs in the model organism C. elegans at multiple scales, moving from micrometric to nanometric resolution and from the organismal to cellular level. We confirmed that the nanoparticles were not able to cross the intestinal and dermal barriers. We investigated the effect of AuNPs on the survival and reproductive performance of C. elegans, and correlated these effects with the uptake of AuNPs in terms of their number, surface area, and metal mass. In general, exposure to 11-nm AuNPs resulted in a higher toxicity than the larger 150-nm AuNPs. NP aggregation inside C. elegans was determined using absorbance microspectroscopy, which allowed the plasmonic properties of AuNPs to be correlated with their confinement inside the intestinal lumen, where anatomical traits, acidic pH and the presence of biomolecules play an essential role on NP aggregation. Finally, quantitative PCR of selected molecular markers indicated that exposure to AuNPs did not significantly affect endocytosis and intestinal barrier integrity. Statement of significance This work highlights how the simple, yet information-rich, animal model C. elegans is ideally suited for preliminary screening of nanoparticles or chemicals mitigating most of the difficulties associated with mammalian animal models, namely the ethical issues, the high cost, and time constraints. This is of particular relevance to the cosmetic, food, and pharmaceutical industries, which all have to justify the use of animals, especially during the discovery, development and initial screening phases. This work provides a detailed and thorough analysis of 11-nm and 150-nm AuNPs at multiple levels of organization (the whole organism, organs, tissues, cells and molecules).Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Compatibility of Breeding Techniques in Organic Systems

Introduction The rapid development of genetic engineering techniques is leading to a level of genetic disruption never experienced before. In order to safeguard organic integrity and to ensure organic food will continue to meet the highest consumer expectations in this challenging situation, IFOAM - Organics International is proposing a number of measures to be put in place to further fortify and enhance the organic sector’s available genetic resources. This position paper provides clarity and transparency on the criteria used by the organic sector as to what breeding techniques are compatible with organic systems, which techniques to exclude, and definitions on what should be considered as genetic engineering and genetically modified organisms (GMOs). We further differentiate between the criteria relevant for organic breeding as defined in the IFOAM – Organics International norms, versus the criteria for cultivars and breeds derived from nonorganic breeding programs regarding their compatibility for the use in commercial organic production and processing. The following experts are members of the IFOAM Working Group on New Plant Breeding Techniques: Michael Glos, Monika Messmer, Gebhard Rossmanith, Gunter Backes, Michael Sligh, Adrian Rodriguez-Burruezo, Heli Matilainen, Andre Leu, Louise Luttikholt, Helen Jensen, Eric Gall, Chito Medina, Krishna Prasad, Kirsten Arp

The Fate of Repository Gases (FORGE) project

Understanding the behaviour of gases in the context of radioactive waste disposal is a fundamental requirement and was the focus of the FORGE (Fate Of Repository GasEs) project. Of particular importance is the long-term performance of the bentonite buffers and the cement-based backfill materials that may be used to encapsulate and surround the waste in a repository for the geological disposal of radioactive waste and plastic clays, indurated mudrocks, and the crystalline formations that may be the host rocks of a repository. FORGE did not study salt host rocks or salt based backfill materials. FORGE has provided new insights into the processes and mechanisms governing gas generation and migration, with the aim of reducing uncertainty relating to the quantitative treatment of gas in performance assessment. This has been achieved by the acquisition of new experimental data coupled with modelling through a series of laboratory and field-scale experiments (performed at a number of underground research laboratories throughout Europe), and modelling. New methods were developed for upscaling from laboratory to field conditions, allowing the optimization of disposal concepts through detailed scenario analysis. Understanding a repository system to an adequate level of detail is required to demonstrate confidence in the assessment of site performance, recognizing that a robust treatment of uncertainty is desirable throughout this process

Conceptual uncertainties in modelling the interaction between engineered and natural barriers of nuclear waste repositories in crystalline rocks

Nuclear waste disposal in geological formations relies on a multi-barrier concept that includes engineered components – which, in many cases, include a bentonite buffer surrounding waste packages – and the host rock. Contrasts in materials, together with gradients across the interface between the engineered and natural barriers, lead to complex interactions between these two subsystems. Numerical modelling, combined with monitoring and testing data, can be used to improve our overall understanding of rock–bentonite interactions and to predict the performance of this coupled system. Although established methods exist to examine the prediction uncertainties due to uncertainties in the input parameters, the impact of conceptual model decisions on the quantitative and qualitative modelling results is more difficult to assess. A Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company Task Force project facilitated such an assessment. In this project, 11 teams used different conceptualizations and modelling tools to analyse the Bentonite Rock Interaction Experiment (BRIE) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. The exercise showed that prior system understanding along with the features implemented in the available simulators affect the processes included in the conceptual model. For some of these features, sufficient characterization data are available to obtain defensible results and interpretations, whereas others are less supported. The exercise also helped to identify the conceptual uncertainties that led to different assessments of the relative importance of the engineered and natural barrier subsystems. The range of predicted bentonite wetting times encompassed by the ensemble results were considerably larger than the ranges derived from individual models. This is a consequence of conceptual uncertainties, demonstrating the relevance of using a multi-model approach involving alternative conceptualizations.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Report of the direct infrared sensors panel

The direct infrared sensors panel considered a wide range of options for technologies relevant to the science goals of the Astrotech 21 mission set. Among the technologies assessed are: large format arrays; photon counting detectors; higher temperature 1 to 10 micro-m arrays; impurity band conduction (IBC) or blocked impurity band (BIB) detectors; readout electronics; and adapting the Space Infrared Telescope Facility and Hubble Space Telescope. Detailed development plans were presented for each of these technology areas