Contextual and Ethical Issues with Predictive Process Monitoring

This thesis addresses contextual and ethical issues in the predictive process monitoring framework and several related issues. Regarding contextual issues, even though the importance of case, process, social and external contextual factors in the predictive business process monitoring framework has been acknowledged, few studies have incorporated these into the framework or measured their impact. Regarding ethical issues, we examine how human agents make decisions with the assistance of process monitoring tools and provide recommendation to facilitate the design of tools which enables a user to recognise the presence of algorithmic discrimination in the predictions provided. First, a systematic literature review is undertaken to identify existing studies which adopt a clustering-based remaining-time predictive process monitoring approach, and a comparative analysis is performed to compare and benchmark the output of the identified studies using 5 real-life event logs. This curates the studies which have adopted this important family of predictive process monitoring approaches but also facilitates comparison as the various studies utilised different datasets, parameters, and evaluation measures. Subsequently, the next two chapter investigate the impact of social and spatial contextual factors in the predictive process monitoring framework. Social factors encompass the way humans and automated agents interact within a particular organisation to execute process-related activities. The impact of social contextual features in the predictive process monitoring framework is investigated utilising a survival analysis approach. The proposed approach is benchmarked against existing approaches using five real-life event logs and outperforms these approaches. Spatial context (a type of external context) is also shown to improve the predictive power of business process monitoring models. The penultimate chapter examines the nature of the relationship between workload (a process contextual factor) and stress (a social contextual factor) by utilising a simulation-based approach to investigate the diffusion of workload-induced stress in the workplace. In conclusion, the thesis examines how users utilise predictive process monitoring (and AI) tools to make decisions. Whilst these tools have delivered real benefits in terms of improved service quality and reduction in processing time, among others, they have also raised issues which have real-world ethical implications such as recommending different credit outcomes for individuals who have an identical financial profile but different characteristics (e.g., gender, race). This chapter amalgamates the literature in the fields of ethical decision making and explainable AI and proposes, but does not attempt to validate empirically, propositions and belief statements based on the synthesis of the existing literature, observation, logic, and empirical analogy

Configraphics:

This dissertation reports a PhD research on mathematical-computational models, methods, and techniques for analysis, synthesis, and evaluation of spatial configurations in architecture and urban design. Spatial configuration is a technical term that refers to the particular way in which a set of spaces are connected to one another as a network. Spatial configuration affects safety, security, and efficiency of functioning of complex buildings by facilitating certain patterns of movement and/or impeding other patterns. In cities and suburban built environments, spatial configuration affects accessibilities and influences travel behavioural patterns, e.g. choosing walking and cycling for short trips instead of travelling by cars. As such, spatial configuration effectively influences the social, economic, and environmental functioning of cities and complex buildings, by conducting human movement patterns. In this research, graph theory is used to mathematically model spatial configurations in order to provide intuitive ways of studying and designing spatial arrangements for architects and urban designers. The methods and tools presented in this dissertation are applicable in: arranging spatial layouts based on configuration graphs, e.g. by using bubble diagrams to ensure certain spatial requirements and qualities in complex buildings; and analysing the potential effects of decisions on the likely spatial performance of buildings and on mobility patterns in built environments for systematic comparison of designs or plans, e.g. as to their aptitude for pedestrians and cyclists. The dissertation reports two parallel tracks of work on architectural and urban configurations. The core concept of the architectural configuration track is the ‘bubble diagram’ and the core concept of the urban configuration track is the ‘easiest paths’ for walking and cycling. Walking and cycling have been chosen as the foci of this theme as they involve active physical, cognitive, and social encounter of people with built environments, all of which are influenced by spatial configuration. The methodologies presented in this dissertation have been implemented in design toolkits and made publicly available as freeware applications

Matching Startup Founders to Investors: a Tool and a Study

The process of matching startup founders with venture capital investors is a necessary first step for many modern technology companies, yet there have been few attempts to study the characteristics of the two parties and their interactions. Surprisingly little has been shown quantitatively about the process, and many of the common assumptions are based on anecdotal evidence. In this thesis, we aim to learn more about the matching component of the startup fundraising process. We begin with a tool (VCWiz), created from the current set of best-practices to help inexperienced founders navigate the founder-investor matching process. The goal of this tool is to increase efficiency and equitability, while collecting data to inform further studies. We use this data, combined with public data on venture investments in the USA, to draw conclusions about the characteristics of venture financing rounds. Finally, we explore the communication data contributed to the tool by founders who are actively fundraising, and use it to learn which social attributes are most beneficial for individuals to possess when soliciting investments.Comment: MIT Master's of Engineering in Computer Science thesis. June 2018. 152 page

Biomedical term extraction: overview and a new methodology

International audienceTerminology extraction is an essential task in domain knowledge acquisition, as well as for Information Retrieval (IR). It is also a mandatory first step aimed at building/enriching terminologies and ontologies. As often proposed in the literature, existing terminology extraction methods feature linguistic and statistical aspects and solve some problems related (but not completely) to term extraction, e.g. noise, silence, low frequency, large-corpora, complexity of the multi-word term extraction process. In contrast, we propose a cutting edge methodology to extract and to rank biomedical terms, covering the all mentioned problems. This methodology offers several measures based on linguistic, statistical, graphic and web aspects. These measures extract and rank candidate terms with excellent precision: we demonstrate that they outperform previously reported precision results for automatic term extraction, and work with different languages (English, French, and Spanish). We also demonstrate how the use of graphs and the web to assess the significance of a term candidate, enables us to outperform precision results. We evaluated our methodology on the biomedical GENIA and LabTestsOnline corpora and compared it with previously reported measures

Analysis of Bulk Power System Resilience Using Vulnerability Graph

Critical infrastructure such as a Bulk Power System (BPS) should have some quantifiable measure of resiliency and definite rule-sets to achieve a certain resilience value. Industrial Control System (ICS) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) networks are integral parts of BPS. BPS or ICS are themselves not vulnerable because of their proprietary technology, but when the control network and the corporate network need to have communications for performance measurements and reporting, the ICS or BPS become vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Thus, a systematic way of quantifying resiliency and identifying crucial nodes in the network is critical for addressing the cyber resiliency measurement process. This can help security analysts and power system operators in the decision-making process. This thesis focuses on the resilience analysis of BPS and proposes a ranking algorithm to identify critical nodes in the network. Although there are some ranking algorithms already in place, but they lack comprehensive inclusion of the factors that are critical in the cyber domain. This thesis has analyzed a range of factors which are critical from the point of view of cyber-attacks and come up with a MADM (Multi-Attribute Decision Making) based ranking method. The node ranking process will not only help improve the resilience but also facilitate hardening the network from vulnerabilities and threats. The proposed method is called MVNRank which stands for Multiple Vulnerability Node Rank. MVNRank algorithm takes into account the asset value of the hosts, the exploitability and impact scores of vulnerabilities as quantified by CVSS (Common Vulnerability Scoring System). It also considers the total number of vulnerabilities and severity level of each vulnerability, degree centrality of the nodes in vulnerability graph and the attacker’s distance from the target node. We are using a multi-layered directed acyclic graph (DAG) model and ranking the critical nodes in the corporate and control network which falls in the paths to the target ICS. We don\u27t rank the ICS nodes but use them to calculate the potential power loss capability of the control center nodes using the assumed ICS connectivity to BPS. Unlike most of the works, we have considered multiple vulnerabilities for each node in the network while generating the rank by using a weighted average method. The resilience computation is highly time consuming as it considers all the possible attack paths from the source to the target node which increases in a multiplicative manner based on the number of nodes and vulnerabilities. Thus, one of the goals of this thesis is to reduce the simulation time to compute resilience which is achieved as illustrated in the simulation results

Accelerating advances in landscape connectivity modelling with the ConScape library

Increasingly precise spatial data (e.g. high-resolution imagery from remote sensing) allow for improved representations of the landscape network for assessing the combined effects of habitat loss and connectivity declines on biodiversity. However, evaluating large landscape networks presents a major computational challenge both in terms of working memory and computation time. We present the ConScape (i.e. “connected landscapes”) software library implemented in the high-performance open-source Julia language to compute metrics for connected habitat and movement flow on high-resolution landscapes. The combination of Julia's ‘just-in-time’ compiler, efficient algorithms and ‘landmarks’ to reduce the computational load allows ConScape to compute landscape ecological metrics—originally developed in metapopulation ecology (such as ‘metapopulation capacity’ and ‘probability of connectivity’)—for large landscapes. An additional major innovation in ConScape is the adoption of the randomized shortest paths framework to represent connectivity along the continuum from optimal to random movements, instead of only those extremes. We demonstrate ConScape's potential for using large datasets in sustainable land planning by modelling landscape connectivity based on remote-sensing data paired with GPS tracking of wild reindeer in Norway. To guide users, we discuss other applications, and provide a series of worked examples to showcase all ConScape's functionalities in Supplementary Material. Built by a team of ecologists, network scientists and software developers, ConScape is able to efficiently compute landscape metrics for high-resolution landscape representations to leverage the availability of large data for sustainable land use and biodiversity conservation. As a Julia implementation, ConScape combines computational efficiency with a transparent code base, which facilitates continued innovation through contributions from the rapidly growing community of landscape and connectivity modellers using Julia. circuitscape, conefor, ecological networks, least-cost path, metapopulation, random walk, randomized shortest pathspublishedVersio

Design, Analysis and Engineering of Algorithms for Closeness Centrality

L'identificazione dei vertici centrali nelle reti di grandi dimensioni è fondamentale in diverse applicazioni. La closeness centrality è una delle più popolari misure di centralità. Il suo calcolo esatto, seppur ottenibile in un tempo polinomiale, è infattibile in pratica se applicato su grafi di grandi dimensioni. L'obbiettivo di questo lavoro verte sul concepimento e sul'analisi di nuovi approcci efficienti per la stima della closeness cen

Intellectual Structure of the Belt and Road Initiative Research: A Scientometric Analysis and Suggestions for a Future Research Agenda

publishedVersio