Who Underreacts to Cash-Flow News? Evidence from Trading between Individuals and Institutions

A large body of literature suggests that firm-level stock prices 'underreact' to news about future cash flows, i.e., shocks to a firm's expected cash flows are positively correlated with shocks to expected returns on its stock. We estimate a vector autoregession to examine the joint behavior of returns, cash-flow news, and trading between individuals and institutions. Our main finding is that institutions buy shares from individuals in response to good cash-flow news, thus exploiting the underreaction phenomenon. Institutions are not simply following price momentum strategies: When price goes up in the absence of positive cash-flow news, institutions sell shares to individuals. Although institutions are trading in the 'right' direction, institutions as a group outperform individuals by only 1.44 percent per annum before transaction and other costs, because they are extremely conservative in deviating from the value-weight market index.

Twitter data analysis for financial markets

Over the time, Twitter has become a fundamental source of information for news. As a one step forward, researchers have tried to analyse if the tweets contain predictive power. In the past, in financial field, a lot of research has been done to propose a function which takes as input all the tweets for a particular stock or index s, analyse them and predict the stock or index price of s. In this work, we take an alternative approach: using the stock price and tweet information, we investigate following questions. 1. Is there any relation between the amount of tweets being generated and the stocks being exchanged? 2. Is there any relation between the sentiment of the tweets and stock prices? 3. What is the structure of the graph that describes the relationships between users

A New Stock Index to Better Predict the United States\u27 Real GDP

The relationship between the United States’ real GDP and the overall stock market has been acknowledged by researchers and investors alike. This research paper will document a newly created composite index that will try to more accurately predict the overall U.S. economy through the proxy of GDP than the current S&P 500 index. Success will be determined if the composite index representing the addition of a service sector component to the S&P 500 is more correlated to U.S. real GDP than the S&P 500 alone. The results suggest that the service sector is not quite adequately in the S&P 500. A stronger service component in the S&P 500 would allow the index to be more statistically correlated to U.S. real GDP during the period of 1995-2009. The model will allow decision-makers to produce better choices based on a more accurate understanding of current economic conditions

Tangled String for Multi-Scale Explanation of Contextual Shifts in Stock Market

The original research question here is given by marketers in general, i.e., how to explain the changes in the desired timescale of the market. Tangled String, a sequence visualization tool based on the metaphor where contexts in a sequence are compared to tangled pills in a string, is here extended and diverted to detecting stocks that trigger changes in the market and to explaining the scenario of contextual shifts in the market. Here, the sequential data on the stocks of top 10 weekly increase rates in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange for 12 years are visualized by Tangled String. The changing in the prices of stocks is a mixture of various timescales and can be explained in the time-scale set as desired by using TS. Also, it is found that the change points found by TS coincided by high precision with the real changes in each stock price. As TS has been created from the data-driven innovation platform called Innovators Marketplace on Data Jackets and is extended to satisfy data users, this paper is as evidence of the contribution of the market of data to data-driven innovations.Comment: 16 pages and 7 figures. The author started to write this paper as an extension of the paper [20] in the reference list, but the content came to be changed substantially, not by only minor extension but to a new pape