Personalized Pancreatic Tumor Growth Prediction via Group Learning

Tumor growth prediction, a highly challenging task, has long been viewed as a mathematical modeling problem, where the tumor growth pattern is personalized based on imaging and clinical data of a target patient. Though mathematical models yield promising results, their prediction accuracy may be limited by the absence of population trend data and personalized clinical characteristics. In this paper, we propose a statistical group learning approach to predict the tumor growth pattern that incorporates both the population trend and personalized data, in order to discover high-level features from multimodal imaging data. A deep convolutional neural network approach is developed to model the voxel-wise spatio-temporal tumor progression. The deep features are combined with the time intervals and the clinical factors to feed a process of feature selection. Our predictive model is pretrained on a group data set and personalized on the target patient data to estimate the future spatio-temporal progression of the patient's tumor. Multimodal imaging data at multiple time points are used in the learning, personalization and inference stages. Our method achieves a Dice coefficient of 86.8% +- 3.6% and RVD of 7.9% +- 5.4% on a pancreatic tumor data set, outperforming the DSC of 84.4% +- 4.0% and RVD 13.9% +- 9.8% obtained by a previous state-of-the-art model-based method

Heart Rate Variability: A possible machine learning biomarker for mechanical circulatory device complications and heart recovery

Cardiovascular disease continues to be the number one cause of death in the United States, with heart failure patients expected to increase to \u3e8 million by 2030. Mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices are now better able to manage acute and chronic heart failure refractory to medical therapy, both as bridge to transplant or as bridge to destination. Despite significant advances in MCS device design and surgical implantation technique, it remains difficult to predict response to device therapy. Heart rate variability (HRV), measuring the variation in time interval between adjacent heartbeats, is an objective device diagnostic regularly recorded by various MCS devices that has been shown to have significant prognostic value for both sudden cardiac death as well as all-cause mortality in congestive heart failure (CHF) patients. Limited studies have examined HRV indices as promising risk factors and predictors of complication and recovery from left ventricular assist device therapy in end-stage CHF patients. If paired with new advances in machine learning utilization in medicine, HRV represents a potential dynamic biomarker for monitoring and predicting patient status as more patients enter the mechanotrope era of MCS devices for destination therapy

Do System Test Cases Grow Old?

Companies increasingly use either manual or automated system testing to ensure the quality of their software products. As a system evolves and is extended with new features the test suite also typically grows as new test cases are added. To ensure software quality throughout this process the test suite is continously executed, often on a daily basis. It seems likely that newly added tests would be more likely to fail than older tests but this has not been investigated in any detail on large-scale, industrial software systems. Also it is not clear which methods should be used to conduct such an analysis. This paper proposes three main concepts that can be used to investigate aging effects in the use and failure behavior of system test cases: test case activation curves, test case hazard curves, and test case half-life. To evaluate these concepts and the type of analysis they enable we apply them on an industrial software system containing more than one million lines of code. The data sets comes from a total of 1,620 system test cases executed a total of more than half a million times over a time period of two and a half years. For the investigated system we find that system test cases stay active as they age but really do grow old; they go through an infant mortality phase with higher failure rates which then decline over time. The test case half-life is between 5 to 12 months for the two studied data sets.Comment: Updated with nicer figs without border around the

Bayesian learning of models for estimating uncertainty in alert systems: application to air traffic conflict avoidance

Alert systems detect critical events which can happen in the short term. Uncertainties in data and in the models used for detection cause alert errors. In the case of air traffic control systems such as Short-Term Conflict Alert (STCA), uncertainty increases errors in alerts of separation loss. Statistical methods that are based on analytical assumptions can provide biased estimates of uncertainties. More accurate analysis can be achieved by using Bayesian Model Averaging, which provides estimates of the posterior probability distribution of a prediction. We propose a new approach to estimate the prediction uncertainty, which is based on observations that the uncertainty can be quantified by variance of predicted outcomes. In our approach, predictions for which variances of posterior probabilities are above a given threshold are assigned to be uncertain. To verify our approach we calculate a probability of alert based on the extrapolation of closest point of approach. Using Heathrow airport flight data we found that alerts are often generated under different conditions, variations in which lead to alert detection errors. Achieving 82.1% accuracy of modelling the STCA system, which is a necessary condition for evaluating the uncertainty in prediction, we found that the proposed method is capable of reducing the uncertain component. Comparison with a bootstrap aggregation method has demonstrated a significant reduction of uncertainty in predictions. Realistic estimates of uncertainties will open up new approaches to improving the performance of alert systems