Surprisingly Rational: Probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment

The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory, but instead use heuristics which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a widespread truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is cancelled for some probabilistic expressions: analysing data from two experiments we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain four reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory, and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise.Comment: 64 pages. Final preprint version. In press, Psychological Revie

Discovering conversational topics and emotions associated with Demonetization tweets in India

Social media platforms contain great wealth of information which provides us opportunities explore hidden patterns or unknown correlations, and understand people's satisfaction with what they are discussing. As one showcase, in this paper, we summarize the data set of Twitter messages related to recent demonetization of all Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes in India and explore insights from Twitter's data. Our proposed system automatically extracts the popular latent topics in conversations regarding demonetization discussed in Twitter via the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) based topic model and also identifies the correlated topics across different categories. Additionally, it also discovers people's opinions expressed through their tweets related to the event under consideration via the emotion analyzer. The system also employs an intuitive and informative visualization to show the uncovered insight. Furthermore, we use an evaluation measure, Normalized Mutual Information (NMI), to select the best LDA models. The obtained LDA results show that the tool can be effectively used to extract discussion topics and summarize them for further manual analysis.Comment: 6 pages, 11 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1608.02519 by other authors; text overlap with arXiv:1705.08094 by other author

Analisis Tingkat Kesadaran Masyarakat Kecamatan Medan Baru dalam Membayar Zakat

The purpose of this research is to determine the level of people's consciousness in paying zakat in Medan Baru.This research characteristic is descriptive. The data in this research are primary data and secondary data. The collecting of the primary data is done by giving questionnaire to muslims in Medan Baru were categorized as Muzakki. while secondary data are obtained from Badan Pusat Statistik, Mosques at Medan Baru, and other literatures. The descriptive analysis method by using computer SPSS 21.From 100 respondens that observed, obtained that the level of people's consciousness in paying zakat fitrah in Medan Baru is higher than the level of people's consciousness in paying zakat maal. It shown by average value for the level of people's consciousness in paying zakat fitrah is 4,84 of 5, the level is categorized as ‘Excellent'. As for the level of people's consciousness in paying zakat maal is 3,21 of 5, the level is categorized as ‘Good'. While, the level of people's consciousness in paying zakat in Medan Baru is relative ‘Good' with the value is 3,98 of 5

Surface energy fluxes in complex terrain

The emphasis of the 1985 NASA project activity was on field measurements of wind data and heat balance data. Initiatives included a 19 station mountaintop monitoring program, testing and refining the surface flux monitoring systems and packing and shipping equipment to the People's Republic of China in preparation for the 1986 Tibet Experiment. Other work included more extensive analyses of the 1984 Gobi Desert and Rocky Mountain observations plus some preliminary analyses of the 1985 mountaintop network data. Details of our field efforts are summarized and results of our data analyses are presented

Criminal Responsibility for Use of Other People's KTP in Online Loan Services

KTP as the main requirement for applying for online loans is currently being abused. Misuse of other people's KTPs for online loan services results in losses for KTP owners who are not aware of these activities. This study aims to examine and analyze the existence of KTP in online loans along with criminal charges for misusing other people's KTPs for online loans. This type of research is normative legal research with statutory and conceptual approaches. The results of the study show that KTP as an electronic document in online loan services and misuse of other people's KTPs for online loans are snared by the ITE Law as well as the Personal Data Protection Law both alternatively and cumulatively

The development of computer science research in the People's Republic of China 2000-2009: A bibliometric study

This paper reports a bibliometric study of the development of computer science research in the People's Republic of China in the 21st century, using data from the Web of Science, Journal Citation Reports and CORE databases. Focusing on the areas of data mining, operating systems and web design, it is shown that whilst the productivity of Chinese research has risen dramatically over the period under review, its impact is still low when compared with established scientific nations such as the USA, the UK and Japan. The publication and citation data for China are compared with corresponding data for the other three BRIC nations (Brazil, Russian and India). It is shown that China dominates the BRIC nations in terms of both publications and citations, but that Indian publications often have a greater individual impact. © The Author(s) 2012

The Analysis of Relationship Between Parenting Pattern, Demographic Variables, Adversity Intelligence and Emotional Intelligence

This study aims to determine the effect of emotional intelligence and parenting style on adversity intelligence. The population in this study were teenagers who attended junior and senior high schools in Jakarta. Testing the validity of the construct and statistical analysis of Structural Equating Modeling (SEM) obtained a fit model of the influence of emotional intelligence, parenting, and demographic variables on the role-influence of adversity-fit intelligence with empirical data. The results of the study show that the emotional intelligence variable evaluates other people's emotions; parenting style is not involved; and the demographic variables of gender and education level have a significant effect on adversity intelligence. Evaluation of other people's emotions has a negative direction towards adversity intelligence. That is, a high evaluation of other people's emotions has an impact on a low adversity quotient. As with uninvolved parenting, gender and education level have a positive relationship. This study aims to determine the effect of emotional intelligence and parenting style on adversity intelligence. The population in this study were teenagers who attended junior and senior high schools in Jakarta. Testing the validity of the construct and statistical analysis of Structural Equating Modeling (SEM) obtained a fit model of the influence of emotional intelligence, parenting, and demographic variables on the role-influence of adversity-fit intelligence with empirical data. The results of the study show that the emotional intelligence variable evaluates other people's emotions; parenting style is not involved; and the demographic variables of gender and education level have a significant effect on adversity intelligence. Evaluation of other people's emotions has a negative direction towards adversity intelligence. That is, a high evaluation of other people's emotions has an impact on a low adversity quotient. As with uninvolved parenting, gender and education level have a positive relationship