Domain adaptation in Natural Language Processing

Domain adaptation has received much attention in the past decade. It has been shown that domain knowledge is paramount for building successful Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. To investigate the domain adaptation problem, we conduct several experiments from different perspectives. First, we automatically adapt sentiment dictionaries for predicting the financial outcomes “excess return” and “volatility”. In these experiments, we compare manual adaptation of the domain-general dictionary with automatic adaptation, and manual adaptation with a combination consisting of first manual, then automatic adaptation. We demonstrate that automatic adaptation performs better than manual adaptation, namely the automatically adapted sentiment dictionary outperforms the previous state of the art in predicting excess return and volatility. Furthermore, we perform qualitative and quantitative analyses finding that annotation based on an expert’s a priori belief about a word’s meaning is error-prone – the meaning of a word can only be recognized in the context that it appears in. Second, we develop the temporal transfer learning approach to account for the language change in social media. The language of social media is changing rapidly – new words appear in the vocabulary, and new trends are constantly emerging. Temporal transfer-learning allows us to model these temporal dynamics in the document collection. We show that this method significantly improves the prediction of movie sales from discussions on social media forums. In particular, we illustrate the success of parameter transfer, the importance of textual information for financial prediction, and show that temporal transfer learning can capture temporal trends in the data by focusing on those features that are relevant in a particular time step, i.e., we obtain more robust models preventing overfitting. Third, we compare the performance of various domain adaptation models in low-resource settings, i.e., when there is a lack of large amounts of high-quality training data. This is an important issue in computational linguistics since the success of NLP applications primarily depends on the availability of training data. In real-world scenarios, the data is often too restricted and specialized. In our experiments, we evaluate different domain adaptation methods under these assumptions and find the most appropriate techniques for such a low-data problem. Furthermore, we discuss the conditions under which one approach substantially outperforms the other. Finally, we summarize our work on domain adaptation in NLP and discuss possible future work topics.Die Domänenanpassung hat in den letzten zehn Jahren viel Aufmerksamkeit erhalten. Es hat sich gezeigt, dass das Domänenwissen für die Erstellung erfolgreicher NLP-Anwendungen (Natural Language Processing) von größter Bedeutung ist. Um das Problem der Domänenanpassung zu untersuchen, führen wir mehrere Experimente aus verschiedenen Perspektiven durch. Erstens passen wir Sentimentlexika automatisch an, um die Überschussrendite und die Volatilität der Finanzergebnisse besser vorherzusagen. In diesen Experimenten vergleichen wir die manuelle Anpassung des allgemeinen Lexikons mit der automatischen Anpassung und die manuelle Anpassung mit einer Kombination aus erst manueller und dann automatischer Anpassung. Wir zeigen, dass die automatische Anpassung eine bessere Leistung erbringt als die manuelle Anpassung: das automatisch angepasste Sentimentlexikon übertrifft den bisherigen Stand der Technik bei der Vorhersage der Überschussrendite und der Volatilität. Darüber hinaus führen wir eine qualitative und quantitative Analyse durch und stellen fest, dass Annotationen, die auf der a priori Überzeugung eines Experten über die Bedeutung eines Wortes basieren, fehlerhaft sein können. Die Bedeutung eines Wortes kann nur in dem Kontext erkannt werden, in dem es erscheint. Zweitens entwickeln wir den Ansatz, den wir Temporal Transfer Learning benennen, um den Sprachwechsel in sozialen Medien zu berücksichtigen. Die Sprache der sozialen Medien ändert sich rasant – neue Wörter erscheinen im Vokabular und es entstehen ständig neue Trends. Temporal Transfer Learning ermöglicht es, diese zeitliche Dynamik in der Dokumentensammlung zu modellieren. Wir zeigen, dass diese Methode die Vorhersage von Filmverkäufen aus Diskussionen in Social-Media-Foren erheblich verbessert. In unseren Experimenten zeigen wir (i) den Erfolg der Parameterübertragung, (ii) die Bedeutung von Textinformationen für die finanzielle Vorhersage und (iii) dass Temporal Transfer Learning zeitliche Trends in den Daten erfassen kann, indem es sich auf die Merkmale konzentriert, die in einem bestimmten Zeitschritt relevant sind, d. h. wir erhalten robustere Modelle, die eine Überanpassung verhindern. Drittens vergleichen wir die Leistung verschiedener Domänenanpassungsmodelle in ressourcenarmen Umgebungen, d. h. wenn große Mengen an hochwertigen Trainingsdaten fehlen. Das ist ein wichtiges Thema in der Computerlinguistik, da der Erfolg der NLP-Anwendungen stark von der Verfügbarkeit von Trainingsdaten abhängt. In realen Szenarien sind die Daten oft zu eingeschränkt und spezialisiert. In unseren Experimenten evaluieren wir verschiedene Domänenanpassungsmethoden unter diesen Annahmen und finden die am besten geeigneten Techniken dafür. Darüber hinaus diskutieren wir die Bedingungen, unter denen ein Ansatz den anderen deutlich übertrifft. Abschließend fassen wir unsere Arbeit zur Domänenanpassung in NLP zusammen und diskutieren mögliche zukünftige Arbeitsthemen

Natural disasters and indicators of social cohesion

Do adversarial environmental conditions create social cohesion? We provide new answers to this question by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in exposure to earthquakes across Chile. Using a variety of methods and controlling for a number of socio-economic variables, we find that exposure to earthquakes has a positive effect on several indicators of social cohesion. Social cohesion increases after a big earthquake and slowly erodes in periods where environmental conditions are less adverse. Our results contribute to the current debate on whether and how environmental conditions shape formal and informal institutions

The Work-Averse Cyber Attacker Model: Theory and Evidence From Two Million Attack Signatures

The assumption that a cyber attacker will potentially exploit all present vulnerabilities drives most modern cyber risk management practices and the corresponding security investments. We propose a new attacker model, based on dynamic optimization, where we demonstrate that large, initial, fixed costs of exploit development induce attackers to delay implementation and deployment of exploits of vulnerabilities. The theoretical model predicts that mass attackers will preferably i) exploit only one vulnerability per software version, ii) largely include only vulnerabilities requiring low attack complexity, and iii) be slow at trying to weaponize new vulnerabilities. These predictions are empirically validated on a large dataset of observed massed attacks launched against a large collection of information systems. Findings in this paper allow cyber risk managers to better concentrate their efforts for vulnerability management, and set a new theoretical and empirical basis for further research defining attacker (offensive) processes

Hazards in Deep Learning Testing: Prevalence, Impact and Recommendations

Much research on Machine Learning testing relies on empirical studies that evaluate and show their potential. However, in this context empirical results are sensitive to a number of parameters that can adversely impact the results of the experiments and potentially lead to wrong conclusions (Type I errors, i.e., incorrectly rejecting the Null Hypothesis). To this end, we survey the related literature and identify 10 commonly adopted empirical evaluation hazards that may significantly impact experimental results. We then perform a sensitivity analysis on 30 influential studies that were published in top-tier SE venues, against our hazard set and demonstrate their criticality. Our findings indicate that all 10 hazards we identify have the potential to invalidate experimental findings, such as those made by the related literature, and should be handled properly. Going a step further, we propose a point set of 10 good empirical practices that has the potential to mitigate the impact of the hazards. We believe our work forms the first step towards raising awareness of the common pitfalls and good practices within the software engineering community and hopefully contribute towards setting particular expectations for empirical research in the field of deep learning testing

Self-Selective Correlation Ship Tracking Method for Smart Ocean System

In recent years, with the development of the marine industry, navigation environment becomes more complicated. Some artificial intelligence technologies, such as computer vision, can recognize, track and count the sailing ships to ensure the maritime security and facilitates the management for Smart Ocean System. Aiming at the scaling problem and boundary effect problem of traditional correlation filtering methods, we propose a self-selective correlation filtering method based on box regression (BRCF). The proposed method mainly include: 1) A self-selective model with negative samples mining method which effectively reduces the boundary effect in strengthening the classification ability of classifier at the same time; 2) A bounding box regression method combined with a key points matching method for the scale prediction, leading to a fast and efficient calculation. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively deal with the problem of ship size changes and background interference. The success rates and precisions were higher than Discriminative Scale Space Tracking (DSST) by over 8 percentage points on the marine traffic dataset of our laboratory. In terms of processing speed, the proposed method is higher than DSST by nearly 22 Frames Per Second (FPS)

Potholes on China's. New Silk Road: An Analysis of Chinese Aid and Investment in South Asia

For centuries, the Indian Subcontinent has played a role as a crossroads of East and West and as a geopolitical kingmaker, encouraging trade but also representing the wealthiest region ever to be conquered. In the 21st Century, the emerging global power of China has rapidly increased their aid and investment in South Asia, forging stronger economic ties with past partners and upending decades of alliances with other powers. This thesis focuses on the motivations, decisions, and outcomes of Chinese financial flows into South Asia, analyzing the degree that Chinese investment matches governmental claims of motive and how the geopolitical landscape is changing in response to Chinese money. Split into four sections, the thesis first provides justification for focus on the importance of South Asia and the unique nature of Chinese aid and investment, particularly with respect to China's One Belt, One Road Initiative. Next, the thesis overviews past literature on antecedents, decisions, and outcomes of Chinese investment, providing background to qualitative changes the tests run in this thesis. Thirdly, the thesis runs regressions and tests to provide greater clarity to the motivations behind Chinese investment. The final chapters examine case studies of the two largest recipients of Chinese investment, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and explore how the investment patterns and political outcomes of these two countries are reflected across many recipients of Chinese money, and how these outcomes have called into question the success of the One Belt, One Road Initiative. This research relies on data collected by AidData at the College of William & Mary and the goal of this thesis is to call into question the state of literature and differing narratives regarding Chinese investment by providing quantitative evidence for or against certain claims.Plan II Honors Progra