Transient Reward Approximation for Continuous-Time Markov Chains

We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power grids, of computer virus vulnerability, and in the study of crowd dynamics. We use abstraction techniques together with novel algorithms for the computation of bounds on the expected final and accumulated rewards in continuous-time Markov decision processes (CTMDPs). These ingredients are combined in a partly symbolic and partly explicit (symblicit) analysis approach. In particular, we circumvent the use of multi-terminal decision diagrams, because the latter do not work well if facing a large number of different rates. We demonstrate the practical applicability and efficiency of the approach on two case studies.Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Reliabilit

Probabilistic Inference Using Partitioned Bayesian Networks:Introducing a Compositional Framework

Probability theory offers an intuitive and formally sound way to reason in situations that involve uncertainty. The automation of probabilistic reasoning has many applications such as predicting future events or prognostics, providing decision support, action planning under uncertainty, dealing with multiple uncertain measurements, making a diagnosis, and so forth. Bayesian networks in particular have been used to represent probability distributions that model the various applications of uncertainty reasoning. However, present-day automated reasoning approaches involving uncertainty struggle when models increase in size and complexity to fit real-world applications.In this thesis, we explore and extend a state-of-the-art automated reasoning method, called inference by Weighted Model Counting (WMC), when applied to increasingly complex Bayesian network models. WMC is comprised of two distinct phases: compilation and inference. The computational cost of compilation has limited the applicability of WMC. To overcome this limitation we have proposed theoretical and practical solutions that have been tested extensively in empirical studies using real-world Bayesian network models.We have proposed a weighted variant of OBDDs, called Weighted Positive Binary Decision Diagrams (WPBDD), which in turn is based on the new notion of positive Shannon decomposition. WPBDDs are particularly well suited to represent discrete probabilistic models. The conciseness of WPBDDs leads to a reduction in the cost of probabilistic inference.We have introduced Compositional Weighted Model Counting (CWMC), a language-agnostic framework for probabilistic inference that partitions a Bayesian network into subproblems. These subproblems are then compiled and subsequently composed in order to perform inference. This approach significantly reduces the cost of compilation, yet increases the cost of inference. The best results are obtained by seeking a partitioning that allows compilation to (barely) become feasible, but no more, as compilation cost can be amortized over multiple inference queries.Theoretical concepts have been implemented in a readily available open-source tool called ParaGnosis. Further implementational improvements have been found through parallelism, by exploiting independencies that are introduced by CWMC. The proposed methods combined push the boundaries of WMC, allowing this state-of-the-art method to be used on much larger models than before

ParaGnosis:A Tool for Parallel Knowledge Compilation

ParaGnosis (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7312034, https://zenodo.org/badge/latestdoi/560170574, Alternative url: https://github.com/gisodal/paragnosis, Demo url: https://github.com/gisodal/paragnosis/blob/main/DEMO.md ) is an open-source tool that supports inference queries on Bayesian networks through weighted model counting. In the knowledge compilation step, the input Bayesian network is encoded as propositional logic and then compiled into a knowledge base in decision diagram representation. The tool supports various diagram formats, including the Weighted-Positive Binary Decision Diagram (WPBDD) which can concisely represent discrete probability distributions. Once compiled, the probabilistic knowledge base can be queried in the inference step. To efficiently implement both steps, ParaGnosis uses simulated annealing to split the knowledge base into a number of partitions. This further reduces the decision diagram size and crucially enables parallelism in both the compilation and the inference steps. Experiments demonstrate that this partitioned approach, in combination with the WPBDD representation, can outperform other approaches in the knowledge compilation step, at the cost of slightly more expensive inference queries. Additionally, the tool can attain 15-fold parallel speedups using 64 cores.</p

AbsSynthe: abstract synthesis from succinct safety specifications

In this paper, we describe a synthesis algorithm for safety specifications described as circuits. Our algorithm is based on fixpoint computations, abstraction and refinement, it uses binary decision diagrams as symbolic data structure. We evaluate our tool on the benchmarks provided by the organizers of the synthesis competition organized within the SYNT'14 workshop.Comment: In Proceedings SYNT 2014, arXiv:1407.493

Connecting Width and Structure in Knowledge Compilation

Several query evaluation tasks can be done via knowledge compilation: the query result is compiled as a lineage circuit from which the answer can be determined. For such tasks, it is important to leverage some width parameters of the circuit, such as bounded treewidth or pathwidth, to convert the circuit to structured classes, e.g., deterministic structured NNFs (d-SDNNFs) or OBDDs. In this work, we show how to connect the width of circuits to the size of their structured representation, through upper and lower bounds. For the upper bound, we show how bounded-treewidth circuits can be converted to a d-SDNNF, in time linear in the circuit size. Our bound, unlike existing results, is constructive and only singly exponential in the treewidth. We show a related lower bound on monotone DNF or CNF formulas, assuming a constant bound on the arity (size of clauses) and degree (number of occurrences of each variable). Specifically, any d-SDNNF (resp., SDNNF) for such a DNF (resp., CNF) must be of exponential size in its treewidth; and the same holds for pathwidth when compiling to OBDDs. Our lower bounds, in contrast with most previous work, apply to any formula of this class, not just a well-chosen family. Hence, for our language of DNF and CNF, pathwidth and treewidth respectively characterize the efficiency of compiling to OBDDs and (d-)SDNNFs, that is, compilation is singly exponential in the width parameter. We conclude by applying our lower bound results to the task of query evaluation

Data Understanding Applied to Optimization

The goal of this research is to explore and develop software for supporting visualization and data analysis of search and optimization. Optimization is an ever-present problem in science. The theory of NP-completeness implies that the problems can only be resolved by increasingly smarter problem specific knowledge, possibly for use in some general purpose algorithms. Visualization and data analysis offers an opportunity to accelerate our understanding of key computational bottlenecks in optimization and to automatically tune aspects of the computation for specific problems. We will prototype systems to demonstrate how data understanding can be successfully applied to problems characteristic of NASA's key science optimization tasks, such as central tasks for parallel processing, spacecraft scheduling, and data transmission from a remote satellite

Advances in Functional Decomposition: Theory and Applications

Functional decomposition aims at finding efficient representations for Boolean functions. It is used in many applications, including multi-level logic synthesis, formal verification, and testing. This dissertation presents novel heuristic algorithms for functional decomposition. These algorithms take advantage of suitable representations of the Boolean functions in order to be efficient. The first two algorithms compute simple-disjoint and disjoint-support decompositions. They are based on representing the target function by a Reduced Ordered Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). Unlike other BDD-based algorithms, the presented ones can deal with larger target functions and produce more decompositions without requiring expensive manipulations of the representation, particularly BDD reordering. The third algorithm also finds disjoint-support decompositions, but it is based on a technique which integrates circuit graph analysis and BDD-based decomposition. The combination of the two approaches results in an algorithm which is more robust than a purely BDD-based one, and that improves both the quality of the results and the running time. The fourth algorithm uses circuit graph analysis to obtain non-disjoint decompositions. We show that the problem of computing non-disjoint decompositions can be reduced to the problem of computing multiple-vertex dominators. We also prove that multiple-vertex dominators can be found in polynomial time. This result is important because there is no known polynomial time algorithm for computing all non-disjoint decompositions of a Boolean function. The fifth algorithm provides an efficient means to decompose a function at the circuit graph level, by using information derived from a BDD representation. This is done without the expensive circuit re-synthesis normally associated with BDD-based decomposition approaches. Finally we present two publications that resulted from the many detours we have taken along the winding path of our research