A Behavioral Characterization of Plausible Priors

One of the last great novels of José Saramago, Death with Interruptions, begins with an epigraph taken from Ludwig Wittgenstein: “If, for example, you were to think more deeply about death, then it would be truly strange if, in so doing, you did not encounter new images, new linguistic fields”. The aim of my paper is to ponder on what kind of a new language game the Portuguese writer is offering us in his book and how to interpret his investigations from the angle of another contemporary literary and philosophical thanatological discourses.One of the last great novels of José Saramago, Death with Interruptions, begins with an epigraph taken from Ludwig Wittgenstein: “If, for example, you were to think more deeply about death, then it would be truly strange if, in so doing, you did not encounter new images, new linguistic fields”. The aim of my paper is to ponder on what kind of a new language game the Portuguese writer is offering us in his book and how to interpret his investigations from the angle of another contemporary literary and philosophical thanatological discourses

Geometric Inference in Bayesian Hierarchical Models with Applications to Topic Modeling

Unstructured data is available in abundance with the rapidly growing size of digital information. Labeling such data is expensive and impractical, making unsupervised learning an increasingly important field. Big data collections often have rich latent structure that statistical modeler is challenged to uncover. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a particularly suitable approach for complex latent patterns. Graphical model formalism has been prominent in developing various procedures for inference in Bayesian models, however the corresponding computational limits often fall behind the demands of the modern data sizes. In this thesis we develop new approaches for scalable approximate Bayesian inference. In particular, our approaches are driven by the analysis of latent geometric structures induced by the models. Our specific contributions include the following. We develop full geometric recipe of the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model. Next, we study several approaches for exploiting the latent geometry to first arrive at a fast weighted clustering procedure augmented with geometric corrections for topic inference, and then a nonparametric approach based on the analysis of the concentration of mass and angular geometry of the topic simplex, a convex polytope constructed by taking the convex hull of vertices representing the latent topics. Estimates produced by our methods are shown to be statistically consistent under some conditions. Finally, we develop a series of models for temporal dynamics of the latent geometric structures where inference can be performed in online and distributed fashion. All our algorithms are evaluated with extensive experiments on simulated and real datasets, culminating at a method several orders of magnitude faster than existing state-of-the-art topic modeling approaches, as demonstrated by experiments working with several million documents in a dozen minutes.PHDStatisticsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146051/1/moonfolk_1.pd

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

B

Q(sqrt(-3))-Integral Points on a Mordell Curve

We use an extension of quadratic Chabauty to number fields,recently developed by the author with Balakrishnan, Besser and M ̈uller,combined with a sieving technique, to determine the integral points overQ(√−3) on the Mordell curve y2 = x3 − 4

Learning from samples using coherent lower previsions

Het hoofdonderwerp van dit werk is het afleiden, voorstellen en bestuderen van voorspellende en parametrische gevolgtrekkingsmodellen die gebaseerd zijn op de theorie van coherente onderprevisies. Een belangrijk nevenonderwerp is het vinden en bespreken van extreme onderwaarschijnlijkheden. In het hoofdstuk ‘Modeling uncertainty’ geef ik een inleidend overzicht van de theorie van coherente onderprevisies ─ ook wel theorie van imprecieze waarschijnlijkheden genoemd ─ en de ideeën waarop ze gestoeld is. Deze theorie stelt ons in staat onzekerheid expressiever ─ en voorzichtiger ─ te beschrijven. Dit overzicht is origineel in de zin dat ze meer dan andere inleidingen vertrekt van de intuitieve theorie van coherente verzamelingen van begeerlijke gokken. Ik toon in het hoofdstuk ‘Extreme lower probabilities’ hoe we de meest extreme vormen van onzekerheid kunnen vinden die gemodelleerd kunnen worden met onderwaarschijnlijkheden. Elke andere onzekerheidstoestand beschrijfbaar met onderwaarschijnlijkheden kan geformuleerd worden in termen van deze extreme modellen. Het belang van de door mij bekomen en uitgebreid besproken resultaten in dit domein is voorlopig voornamelijk theoretisch. Het hoofdstuk ‘Inference models’ behandelt leren uit monsters komende uit een eindige, categorische verzameling. De belangrijkste basisveronderstelling die ik maak is dat het bemonsteringsproces omwisselbaar is, waarvoor ik een nieuwe definitie geef in termen van begeerlijke gokken. Mijn onderzoek naar de gevolgen van deze veronderstelling leidt ons naar enkele belangrijke representatiestellingen: onzekerheid over (on)eindige rijen monsters kan gemodelleerd worden in termen van categorie-aantallen (-frequenties). Ik bouw hier op voort om voor twee populaire gevolgtrekkingsmodellen voor categorische data ─ het voorspellende imprecies Dirichlet-multinomiaalmodel en het parametrische imprecies Dirichletmodel ─ een verhelderende afleiding te geven, louter vertrekkende van enkele grondbeginselen; deze modellen pas ik toe op speltheorie en het leren van Markov-ketens. In het laatste hoofdstuk, ‘Inference models for exponential families’, verbreed ik de blik tot niet-categorische exponentiële-familie-bemonsteringsmodellen; voorbeelden zijn normale bemonstering en Poisson-bemonstering. Eerst onderwerp ik de exponentiële families en de aanverwante toegevoegde parametrische en voorspellende previsies aan een grondig onderzoek. Deze aanverwante previsies worden gebruikt in de klassieke Bayesiaanse gevolgtrekkingsmodellen gebaseerd op toegevoegd updaten. Ze dienen als grondslag voor de nieuwe, door mij voorgestelde imprecieze-waarschijnlijkheidsgevolgtrekkingsmodellen. In vergelijking met de klassieke Bayesiaanse aanpak, laat de mijne toe om voorzichtiger te zijn bij de beschrijving van onze kennis over het bemonsteringsmodel; deze voorzichtigheid wordt weerspiegeld door het op deze modellen gebaseerd gedrag (getrokken besluiten, gemaakte voorspellingen, genomen beslissingen). Ik toon ten slotte hoe de voorgestelde gevolgtrekkingsmodellen gebruikt kunnen worden voor classificatie door de naïeve credale classificator.This thesis's main subject is deriving, proposing, and studying predictive and parametric inference models that are based on the theory of coherent lower previsions. One important side subject also appears: obtaining and discussing extreme lower probabilities. In the chapter ‘Modeling uncertainty’, I give an introductory overview of the theory of coherent lower previsions ─ also called the theory of imprecise probabilities ─ and its underlying ideas. This theory allows us to give a more expressive ─ and a more cautious ─ description of uncertainty. This overview is original in the sense that ─ more than other introductions ─ it is based on the intuitive theory of coherent sets of desirable gambles. I show in the chapter ‘Extreme lower probabilities’ how to obtain the most extreme forms of uncertainty that can be modeled using lower probabilities. Every other state of uncertainty describable by lower probabilities can be formulated in terms of these extreme ones. The importance of the results in this area obtained and extensively discussed by me is currently mostly theoretical. The chapter ‘Inference models’ treats learning from samples from a finite, categorical space. My most basic assumption about the sampling process is that it is exchangeable, for which I give a novel definition in terms of desirable gambles. My investigation of the consequences of this assumption leads us to some important representation theorems: uncertainty about (in)finite sample sequences can be modeled entirely in terms of category counts (frequencies). I build on this to give an elucidating derivation from first principles for two popular inference models for categorical data ─ the predictive imprecise Dirichlet-multinomial model and the parametric imprecise Dirichlet model; I apply these models to game theory and learning Markov chains. In the last chapter, ‘Inference models for exponential families’, I enlarge the scope to exponential family sampling models; examples are normal sampling and Poisson sampling. I first thoroughly investigate exponential families and the related conjugate parametric and predictive previsions used in classical Bayesian inference models based on conjugate updating. These previsions serve as a basis for the new imprecise-probabilistic inference models I propose. Compared to the classical Bayesian approach, mine allows to be much more cautious when trying to express what we know about the sampling model; this caution is reflected in behavior (conclusions drawn, predictions made, decisions made) based on these models. Lastly, I show how the proposed inference models can be used for classification with the naive credal classifier

The geometry of colour

This thesis explores the geometric description of animal colour vision. It examines the relationship of colour spaces to behavior and to physiology. I provide a derivation of, and explore the limits of, geometric spaces derived from the notion of risk and uncertainty aversion as well as the geometric objects that enumerate the variety of achievable colours. Using these principles I go on to explore evolutionary questions concerning colourfulness, such as aposematism, mimicry and the idea of aesthetic preference

Three Dimensional Canonical Quantum Gravity

General aspects of vielbein representation, ADM formulation and canonical quantization of gravity are reviewed using pure gravity in three dimensions as a toy model. The classical part focusses on the role of observers in general relativity, which will later be identified with quantum observers. A precise definition of gauge symmetries and a classification of inequivalent solutions of Einstein's equations in dreibein formalism is given as well. In the quantum part the construction of the physical Hilbert space is carried out explicitly for a torus and cylinder type space manifold, which has not been done so far. Some conceptual problems of quantum gravity are discussed from the point of view of an observer sitting inside the universe.Comment: 82 pages, uses LaTeX2e and PiCTe