Predicting areas of potential conflicts between bearded vultures (Gypaetus barbatus) and wind turbines in the Swiss Alps

The alarming increase in global temperature observed over the last hundred years, driven by the use of fossil fuels, has prompted a shift towards “greener” energy production. An extensive expansion of wind power exploitation is expected in the coming years, which makes its effect on vulnerable species an issue of growing conservation concern. Among the wildlife affected by wind turbines, vultures are probably the most vulnerable avian ecological guild. They have experienced a sharp decline during the last decades and their survival in many areas is the result of targeted recovery and conservation actions. The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) represents an emblematic example. After having been extirpated from the European Alps, the species once again inhabits its former habitat, thanks to the massive long-lasting effort of a dedicated reintroduction programme. There are concerns, however, that the sprawl of wind turbines in the Alpine massif will jeopardise this successful population recovery. The main goal of this PhD thesis was therefore to predict areas in the Swiss Alps where conflicts between bearded vulture conservation and wind energy development are likely to occur, thus allowing for a more biodiversity-friendly spatial planning of wind turbines. Using a spatially explicit modelling framework with combined information of casual observations and GPS data, I predicted species’ potential distribution as well as its flight behaviour in relation to landscape, wind, and foraging conditions. First, I investigated the species ecological requirements in relation to season and age and translated these into distribution maps covering the whole Swiss Alpine arc. Here the focus was on evaluating the ability of the models to predict the possible future expansion of the species, a crucial point for anticipating potential conflicts arising from the spread of wind energy. During this process, I secondly had to delve into methodological challenges, especially with regard to taking objective decisions for model tuning. Based on the example of modelling the distribution of the bearded vulture, I introduced a new genetic algorithm for hyperparameters tuning, which drastically reduces computation time while achieving a model performance comparable or equal to that obtained with standard methods. Moreover, I generalised the developed routines so as to make them applicable to the most common species distribution modelling techniques and compiled the solutions in an R package now available to the scientific community. Thirdly, I explored the flight height patterns of bearded vultures to identify key factors driving low-height flight activity and delineated areas where the species is likely to fly within the critical height range that is typically swept by the blades of modern wind turbines. Overall, I found that food availability is an important driver of both distribution and low-height flight activity of bearded vultures. Habitat selection differed between seasons and between age classes during the cold season. While food availability and geological substrates were the main drivers of the distribution during the warm season, I observed a shift in the requirement of adult birds in the cold season, where habitat selection was mainly influenced by climatic conditions. This suggests that adult birds may be constrained by favourable winter conditions for the selection of breeding territories. Combining the ecological requirements of both age classes and seasons I found that 40% of the Swiss Alps offers suitable habitat for the species. The model trained with species data collected between 2004 and 2014 was able to accurately predict new breeding territories established in 2015 – 2019, and thus adequately delineated areas where the spreading population will likely to occur in the future and where conflicts with wind energy development might arise. The flight-height analysis of the GPS-tagged birds revealed that bearded vultures mainly fly within the critical height range swept by the turbine blades (77.5% of GPS locations), which poses the species at high risk of collision. Flying at low heights most frequently occurred along south exposed mountainsides and in areas with a high probability of ibex (Capra ibex) presence, a key food source for bearded vulture. Synthesising the information on bearded vulture distribution with the flight height behaviour allowed identifying and mapping areas where the species is likely to fly at risky height within its habitat. This high resolution, spatially explicit information represents a valuable tool for planners involved in wind energy development as well as a first basis for detailed impact assessments, while the methodological framework I developed represents a transferable approach for scientists studying potential conflicts between the development of aerial infrastructure and other target organisms

Stable and scalable congestion control for high-speed heterogeneous networks

For any congestion control mechanisms, the most fundamental design objectives are stability and scalability. However, achieving both properties are very challenging in such a heterogeneous environment as the Internet. From the end-users' perspective, heterogeneity is due to the fact that different flows have different routing paths and therefore different communication delays, which can significantly affect stability of the entire system. In this work, we successfully address this problem by first proving a sufficient and necessary condition for a system to be stable under arbitrary delay. Utilizing this result, we design a series of practical congestion control protocols (MKC and JetMax) that achieve stability regardless of delay as well as many additional appealing properties. From the routers' perspective, the system is heterogeneous because the incoming traffic is a mixture of short- and long-lived, TCP and non-TCP flows. This imposes a severe challenge on traditional buffer sizing mechanisms, which are derived using the simplistic model of a single or multiple synchronized long-lived TCP flows. To overcome this problem, we take a control-theoretic approach and design a new intelligent buffer sizing scheme called Adaptive Buffer Sizing (ABS), which based on the current incoming traffic, dynamically sets the optimal buffer size under the target performance constraints. Our extensive simulation results demonstrate that ABS exhibits quick responses to changes of traffic load, scalability to a large number of incoming flows, and robustness to generic Internet traffic

Channel routing: Efficient solutions using neural networks

Neural network architectures are effectively applied to solve the channel routing problem. Algorithms for both two-layer and multilayer channel-width minimization, and constrained via minimization are proposed and implemented. Experimental results show that the proposed channel-width minimization algorithms are much superior in all respects compared to existing algorithms. The optimal two-layer solutions to most of the benchmark problems, not previously obtained, are obtained for the first time, including an optimal solution to the famous Deutch\u27s difficult problem. The optimal solution in four-layers for one of the be lchmark problems, not previously obtained, is obtained for the first time. Both convergence rate and the speed with which the simulations are executed are outstanding. A neural network solution to the constrained via minimization problem is also presented. In addition, a fast and simple linear-time algorithm is presented, possibly for the first time, for coloring of vertices of an interval graph, provided the line intervals are given

New Mechatronic Systems for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Cancer

Both two dimensional (2D) and three dimensional (3D) imaging modalities are useful tools for viewing the internal anatomy. Three dimensional imaging techniques are required for accurate targeting of needles. This improves the efficiency and control over the intervention as the high temporal resolution of medical images can be used to validate the location of needle and target in real time. Relying on imaging alone, however, means the intervention is still operator dependent because of the difficulty of controlling the location of the needle within the image. The objective of this thesis is to improve the accuracy and repeatability of needle-based interventions over conventional techniques: both manual and automated techniques. This includes increasing the accuracy and repeatability of these procedures in order to minimize the invasiveness of the procedure. In this thesis, I propose that by combining the remote center of motion concept using spherical linkage components into a passive or semi-automated device, the physician will have a useful tracking and guidance system at their disposal in a package, which is less threatening than a robot to both the patient and physician. This design concept offers both the manipulative transparency of a freehand system, and tremor reduction through scaling currently offered in automated systems. In addressing each objective of this thesis, a number of novel mechanical designs incorporating an remote center of motion architecture with varying degrees of freedom have been presented. Each of these designs can be deployed in a variety of imaging modalities and clinical applications, ranging from preclinical to human interventions, with an accuracy of control in the millimeter to sub-millimeter range

Object-oriented analysis and design of computational intelligence systems

Machine learning from data, neuro-fuzzy information processing, approximate reasoning and genetic and evolutionary computation are all aspects of computational intelligence (also called soft computing methods). Soft computing methods differ from conventional computing in that they are tolerant of imprecision, uncertainty and partial truths. These characteristics can be exploited to achieve tractability, robustness and low solution costs when the solution to a complex (in machine terms) problem is required. The principal constituents of soft computing include: Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic and Probabilistic Reasoning Systems. Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Evolutionary Algorithms, Chaos Theory', Complexity Theory and parts of Learning Theory all come under Probabilistic Reasoning Systems. Hybrid systems can be designed incorporating 2 or more aspects of soft computing that are more powerful than any of the components used in a stand alone fashion. A unified framework is needed to implement and manipulate such systems. Such a framework will allow for easy visualisation of the underlying concepts and easy modification of the resulting computer models. In this thesis, an investigation of the major aspects of computational intelligence has been carried out. The main emphasis has been placed on developing an object-oriented framework for architecting computational intelligence systems. Object models for Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic Systems and Evolutionary Computation systems have been developed. Software has been written in C++ to realise sample implementations of the various systems. Finally, practical applications and the results of using the Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic systems and Genetic Algorithms developed in solving real world problems are presented. A consistent notation based on the Object Modelling Technique (OMT) is used throughout the thesis to describe the software architectures from which the computer implementation models have been derived

Unsupervised Learning Trojan

This work presents a proof of concept of an Unsupervised Learning Trojan. The Unsupervised Learning Trojan presents new challenges over previous work on the Neural network Trojan, since the attacker does not control most of the environment. The current work will presented an analysis of how the attack can be successful by proposing new assumptions under which the attack can become a viable one. A general analysis of how the compromise can be theoretically supported is presented, providing enough background for practical implementation development. The analysis was carried out using 3 selected algorithms that can cover a wide variety of circumstances of unsupervised learning. A selection of 4 encoding schemes on 4 datasets were chosen to represent actual scenarios under which the Trojan compromise might be targeted. A detailed procedure is presented to demonstrate the attack\u27s viability under assumed circumstances. Two tests of hypothesis concerning the experimental setup were carried out which yielded acceptance of the null hypothesis. Further discussion is contemplated on various aspects of actual implementation issues and real world scenarios where this attack might be contemplated

Identifying Changes of Functional Brain Networks using Graph Theory

This thesis gives an overview on how to estimate changes in functional brain networks using graph theoretical measures. It explains the assessment and definition of functional brain networks derived from fMRI data. More explicitly, this thesis provides examples and newly developed methods on the measurement and visualization of changes due to pathology, external electrical stimulation or ongoing internal thought processes. These changes can occur on long as well as on short time scales and might be a key to understanding brain pathologies and their development. Furthermore, this thesis describes new methods to investigate and visualize these changes on both time scales and provides a more complete picture of the brain as a dynamic and constantly changing network.:1 Introduction 1.1 General Introduction 1.2 Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging 1.3 Resting-state fMRI 1.4 Brain Networks and Graph Theory 1.5 White-Matter Lesions and Small Vessel Disease 1.6 Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation 1.7 Dynamic Functional Connectivity 2 Publications 2.1 Resting developments: a review of fMRI post-processing methodologies for spontaneous brain activity 2.2 Early small vessel disease affects fronto-parietal and cerebellar hubs in close correlation with clinical symptoms - A resting-state fMRI study 2.3 Dynamic modulation of intrinsic functional connectivity by transcranial direct current stimulation 2.4 Three-dimensional mean-shift edge bundling for the visualization of functional connectivity in the brain 2.5 Dynamic network participation of functional connectivity hubs assessed by resting-state fMRI 3 Summary 4 Bibliography 5. Appendix 5.1 Erklärung über die eigenständige Abfassung der Arbeit 5.2 Curriculum vitae 5.3 Publications 5.4 Acknowledgement

Statistical modelling by neural networks

In this thesis the two disciplines of Statistics and Artificial Neural Networks are combined into an integrated study of a data set of a weather modification Experiment. An extensive literature study on artificial neural network methodology has revealed the strongly interdisciplinary nature of the research and the applications in this field. An artificial neural networks are becoming increasingly popular with data analysts, statisticians are becoming more involved in the field. A recursive algoritlun is developed to optimize the number of hidden nodes in a feedforward artificial neural network to demonstrate how existing statistical techniques such as nonlinear regression and the likelihood-ratio test can be applied in innovative ways to develop and refine neural network methodology. This pruning algorithm is an original contribution to the field of artificial neural network methodology that simplifies the process of architecture selection, thereby reducing the number of training sessions that is needed to find a model that fits the data adequately. [n addition, a statistical model to classify weather modification data is developed using both a feedforward multilayer perceptron artificial neural network and a discriminant analysis. The two models are compared and the effectiveness of applying an artificial neural network model to a relatively small data set assessed. The formulation of the problem, the approach that has been followed to solve it and the novel modelling application all combine to make an original contribution to the interdisciplinary fields of Statistics and Artificial Neural Networks as well as to the discipline of meteorology.Mathematical SciencesD. Phil. (Statistics

Toward Building an Intelligent and Secure Network: An Internet Traffic Forecasting Perspective

Internet traffic forecast is a crucial component for the proactive management of self-organizing networks (SON) to ensure better Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE). Given the volatile and random nature of traffic data, this forecasting influences strategic development and investment decisions in the Internet Service Provider (ISP) industry. Modern machine learning algorithms have shown potential in dealing with complex Internet traffic prediction tasks, yet challenges persist. This thesis systematically explores these issues over five empirical studies conducted in the past three years, focusing on four key research questions: How do outlier data samples impact prediction accuracy for both short-term and long-term forecasting? How can a denoising mechanism enhance prediction accuracy? How can robust machine learning models be built with limited data? How can out-of-distribution traffic data be used to improve the generalizability of prediction models? Based on extensive experiments, we propose a novel traffic forecast/prediction framework and associated models that integrate outlier management and noise reduction strategies, outperforming traditional machine learning models. Additionally, we suggest a transfer learning-based framework combined with a data augmentation technique to provide robust solutions with smaller datasets. Lastly, we propose a hybrid model with signal decomposition techniques to enhance model generalization for out-of-distribution data samples. We also brought the issue of cyber threats as part of our forecast research, acknowledging their substantial influence on traffic unpredictability and forecasting challenges. Our thesis presents a detailed exploration of cyber-attack detection, employing methods that have been validated using multiple benchmark datasets. Initially, we incorporated ensemble feature selection with ensemble classification to improve DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service) attack detection accuracy with minimal false alarms. Our research further introduces a stacking ensemble framework for classifying diverse forms of cyber-attacks. Proceeding further, we proposed a weighted voting mechanism for Android malware detection to secure Mobile Cyber-Physical Systems, which integrates the mobility of various smart devices to exchange information between physical and cyber systems. Lastly, we employed Generative Adversarial Networks for generating flow-based DDoS attacks in Internet of Things environments. By considering the impact of cyber-attacks on traffic volume and their challenges to traffic prediction, our research attempts to bridge the gap between traffic forecasting and cyber security, enhancing proactive management of networks and contributing to resilient and secure internet infrastructure