Recommender Thermometer for Measuring the Preparedness for Flood Resilience Management

A range of various thermometers and similar scales are employed in different human and resilience management activities: Distress Thermometer, Panic Thermometer, Fear Thermometer, fire danger rating, hurricane scales, earthquake scales (Richter Magnitude Scale, Mercalli Scale), Anxiety Thermometer, Help Thermometer, Problem Thermometer, Emotion Thermometer, Depression Thermometer, the Torino scale (assessing asteroid/comet impact prediction), Excessive Heat Watch, etc. Extensive financing of the preparedness for flood resilience management with overheated full-scale resilience management might be compared to someone ill running a fever of 41°C. As the financial crisis hits and resilience management financing cools down it reminds a sick person whose body temperature is too low. The degree indicated by the Recommender Thermometer for Measuring the Preparedness for Flood Resilience Management with a scale between Tmin=34,0° and Tmax=42,0° shows either cool or overheated preparedness for flood resilience management. The formalized presentation of this research shows how changes in the micro, meso and macro environment of resilience management and the extent to which the goals pursued by various interested parties are met cause corresponding changes in the “temperature” of the preparedness for resilience management. Global innovative aspects of the Recommender Thermometer developed by the authors of this paper are, primarily, its capacity to measure the “temperature” of the preparedness for flood resilience management automatically, to compile multiple alternative recommendations (preparedness for floods, including preparing your home for floods, taking precautions against a threat of floods, retrofitting for flood-prone areas, checking your house insurance; preparedness for bushfires, preparedness for cyclones, preparedness for severe storms, preparedness for heat waves, etc.) customised for a specific user, to perform multiple criteria analysis of the recommendations, and to select the ten most rational ones for that user. Across the world, no other system offers these functions yet. The Recommender Thermometer was developed and fine-tuned in the course of the Android (Academic Network for Disaster Resilience to Optimise educational Development) project

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Climate change is expected to result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In turn, this will result in more frequent occurrences of extreme flood events, such as flash flooding and large-scale river flooding. This being the case, there is a need for more accurate flood risk assessment schemes, particularly in areas prone to extreme flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by extreme flooding. Two flood hazard assessment criteria were tested, namely: a widely used, empirically derived method, and recently introduced, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. The two selected flood hazard assessment methods were: (1) validated against experimental data, and (2) used to assess flood hazard indices for two different extreme flood events, namely: the 2010 Kostanjevica na Krki extreme river flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas prone to extreme flooding, the flood hazard indices should be based on using the formulae derived for a mechanics-based analysis, as these formulations consider all of the physical forces acting on a human body in floodwaters, take into account the rapid changes in the flow regime, which often occur for extreme flood events, and enable a rapid assessment of the degree of flood hazard risk in a short time period, a feature particularly important when assessing flood hazard indices for high Froude numbers flows

Historical comparison of the damage caused by the propagation of a dam break wave in a pre-alpine valley

Study region: Valle Camonica basin and Lake Iseo in the Italian pre-alpine and alpine region. Study focus: This paper provides the first hydraulic reconstruction of the terminal part of the Gleno dam break with the propagation of the flood wave along a wide pre-alpine valley. The reconstruction of this part of the event, accomplished with a new 2D Shallow Water Equations solver, provides the occasion to tackle some important issues related to the computation of flood damage, a topic of paramount practical importance for which there is no widely accepted procedure in the literature. New hydrological insights for the region: The hydraulic reconstruction provides insights into the propagation of the flood through the floodplain as far as the inlet of Lake Iseo. A methodology for damage computation is presented that considers a physically based criterion for the vulnerability of human life, with significant implications with respect to the use of simpler approaches based only on the density of the population. The economic evaluation of the damage to the built environment and to agricultural activities is included through a comprehensive recent approach. We discuss the variations of the expected damage due to the hydraulic works accomplished over the last 100 years to decrease the flood hazard, showing that its reduction has been followed by an increase in the expected damage in the surrounding areas

Comparative analysis of spring flood risk reduction measures in Alaska, United States and the Sakha Republic, Russia

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017River ice thaw and breakup are an annual springtime phenomena in the North. Depending on regional weather patterns and river morphology, breakups can result in catastrophic floods in exposed and vulnerable communities. Breakup flood risk is especially high in rural and remote northern communities, where flood relief and recovery are complicated by unique geographical and climatological features, and limited physical and communication infrastructure. Proactive spring flood management would significantly minimize the adverse impacts of spring floods. Proactive flood management entails flood risk reduction through advances in ice jam and flood prevention, forecasting and mitigation, and community preparedness. With the goal to identify best practices in spring flood risk reduction, I conducted a comparative case study between two flood-prone communities, Galena in Alaska, United States and Edeytsy in the Sakha Republic, Russia. Within a week from each other, Galena and Edeytsy sustained major floods in May 2013. Methods included focus groups with the representatives from flood managing agencies, surveys of families impacted by the 2013 floods, observations on site, and archival review. Comparative parameters of the study included natural and human causes of spring floods, effectiveness of spring flood mitigation and preparedness strategies, and the role of interagency communication and cooperation in flood risk reduction. The analysis revealed that spring flood risk in Galena and Edeytsy results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes and human actions that generate conditions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Therefore, flood risk in Galena and Edeytsy can be reduced by managing conditions of ice-jam floods, and decreasing exposure and vulnerability of the at-risk populations. Implementing the Pressure and Release model to analyze the vulnerability progression of Edeytsy and Galena points to common root causes at the two research sites, including colonial heritage, unequal distribution of resources and power, top-down governance, and limited inclusion of local communities in the decision-making process. To construct an appropriate flood risk reduction framework it is important to establish a dialogue among the diverse stakeholders on potential solutions, arriving at a range of top-down and bottom-up initiatives and in conjunction selecting the appropriate strategies. Both communities have progressed in terms of greater awareness of the hazard, reduction in vulnerabilities, and a shift to more reliance on shelter-in-place. However, in neither community have needed improvements in levee protection been completed. Dialogue between outside authorities and the community begins earlier and is more intensive for Edeytsy, perhaps accounting for Edeytsy's more favorable rating of risk management and response than Galena's

Mapping the danger to life in flash flood events adopting a mechanics based methodology and planning evacuation routes

Extreme flood events are becoming more frequent and challenging due to climate change. Key objectives of this study are to evaluate different criteria used in assessing the hazard to people during flood events and, once determined, the most suitable method is then used to assess the hazard and the safest route(s) for evacuation during a flood event and for a particular case study. The results of the application of two criteria are analysed in terms of the flood hazard assessment with the two criteria being based on a widely used empirical approach and a mechanics based approach. Both criteria are used to assess the flood hazard to people during an extreme flash flood, which occurred on 16th August 2004 in Boscastle (UK). Results obtained for this study have highlighted that the mechanics based criteria are preferable in identifying the ideal escape routes, when considering the flood characteristics and the corresponding response of a human body. The main novelty of this study lies in linking the flood hazard rating with the human body characteristics, when determining the safest route and with a revised formula being developed, which includes the effects of ground slope in the application to a real case study

Flood risk in urban areas: modelling, management and adaptation to climate change. A review

[Abstract:] The modelling and management of flood risk in urban areas are increasingly recognized as global challenges. The complexity of these issues is a consequence of the existence of several distinct sources of risk, including not only fluvial, tidal and coastal flooding, but also exposure to urban runoff and local drainage failure, and the various management strategies that can be proposed. The high degree of vulnerability that characterizes such areas is expected to increase in the future due to the effects of climate change, the growth of the population living in cities, and urban densification. An increasing awareness of the socio-economic losses and environmental impact of urban flooding is clearly reflected in the recent expansion of the number of studies related to the modelling and management of urban flooding, sometimes within the framework of adaptation to climate change. The goal of the current paper is to provide a general review of the recent advances in flood-risk modelling and management, while also exploring future perspectives in these fields of research

Are Floods Becoming a More Expensive Hazard? A Damages Review of the Southeastern Spanish Coast (1996–2016).

Over the last few decades, an increasing economic and social flooding damages trend has been recorded worldwide. Although this situation was initially associated with climate change, recently different institutions and scientific papers have related this trend to two main reasons: (i) a human population increase and (ii) the number of assets located in floodable areas. In this regard, this paper analyses evolutions in flood damages and their causes in a Mediterranean area, the provinces of Alicante and Murcia, between 1996 and 2016. The duration of this period, from a flood risk management policy point of view, is very important because it encompasses one of the most important legislative periods at a national and European level. As a main result, this paper establishes a temporal and spatial pattern related to increases in flood damages and their main influence on coastal areas, respectively, due to certain economic, spatial and temporal factors. As a conclusion, these trends demonstrate the inefficiency of flood risk management policies, especially those connected with spatial planning.Partial funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málag

Scientific knowledge and scientific uncertainty in bushfire and flood risk mitigation: literature review

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning (RMPP) project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of bushfire and flood science, and its contribution to risk mitigation policy and planning. The project investigates how policy makers, practitioners, courts, inquiries and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge in relation to bushfire and flood risk. It uses qualitative social science methods and case studies to analyse how diverse types of knowledge are ordered and judged as salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for emergency management across the PPRR spectrum. This research report is the second literature review of the RMPP project and was written before any of the case studies had been completed. It synthesises approximately 250 academic sources on bushfire and flood risk science, including research on hazard modelling, prescribed burning, hydrological engineering, development planning, meteorology, climatology and evacuation planning. The report also incorporates theoretical insights from the fields of risk studies and science and technology studies (STS), as well as indicative research regarding the public understandings of science, risk communication and deliberative planning. This report outlines the key scientific practices (methods and knowledge) and scientific uncertainties in bushfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. Scientific uncertainties are those ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ that emerge from the development and utilisation of scientific knowledge. Risk mitigation involves those processes through which agencies attempt to limit the vulnerability of assets and values to a given hazard. The focus of this report is the uncertainties encountered and managed by risk mitigation professionals in regards to these two hazards, though literature regarding natural sciences and the scientific method more generally are also included where appropriate. It is important to note that while this report excludes professional experience and local knowledge from its consideration of uncertainties and knowledge, these are also very important aspects of risk mitigation which will be addressed in the RMPP project’s case studies. Key findings of this report include: Risk and scientific knowledge are both constructed categories, indicating that attempts to understand any individual instance of risk or scientific knowledge should be understood in light of the social, political, economic, and ecological context in which they emerge. Uncertainty is a necessary element of scientific methods, and as such risk mitigation practitioners and researchers alike should seek to ‘embrace uncertainty’ (Moore et al., 2005) as part of navigating bushfire and flood risk mitigation

Evaluation of the risk due to fluvial flooding in vehicles and road infrastructures at basin scale

[ES] Las inundaciones pueden llegar a desestabilizar los vehículos y estos, a su vez, pueden exacerbar los efectos negativos de las inundaciones cuando son arrastrados por el flujo, generando no solamente pérdidas económicas sino también de vidas humanas. En las ciudades, la mayor parte de las muertes durante las inundaciones ocurre al interior de los vehículos debido a que los conductores intentan cruzar con sus vehículos por zonas inundadas (Jonkzman and Kelman 2005; Drobot et al. 2007; Kellar and Schmidlin 2012). En países desarrollados, un alto porcentaje de estas muertes ocurre durante inundaciones relámpago cuando los conductores intentan cruzar por zonas inundadas en lugar de evitarlas (Fitzgerald et al. 2010; Kellar y Schmidlin 2012). Debido a esto, en áreas sujetas a inundaciones relámpago, casi la mitad de las víctimas son pasajeros atrapados en sus vehículos (Versini et al. 2010a) Entre las partes de las vías que resultan afectadas por las crecidas de los ríos se encuentran los puentes, las cuales son obras de infraestructura muy importantes. Un alto porcentaje de los fallos de los puentes a nivel mundial se presenta debido a las crecidas de los ríos, lo cual tiene un impacto negativo en los vehículos y los sistemas de transporte. Debido a esto, con el fin de realizar una adecuada gestión de las inundaciones es necesario determinar el riesgo de inestabilidad al que están sometidos los vehículos en una zona inundable. Sin embargo, a pesar del impacto negativo de las inundaciones, hasta la fecha se dispone de pocos estudios que permitan determinar los efectos negativos que las condiciones climáticas generan sobre los sistemas de transporte (Molarius et al., 2014). En esta investigación se desarrolló una nueva metodología para calcular este riesgo a partir de las características de las crecidas, los puentes, los vehículos, y el tráfico vehicular. Esta metodología fue generada a partir de una estructura conceptual y un desarrollo matemático novedosos y permite determinar el riesgo a través de la integral estadística de la amenaza de inestabilidad y la vulnerabilidad de los coches. En áreas urbanas y en las intersecciones entre las corrientes de agua y las vías, la amenaza se establece a través de una función de estabilidad de autos parcialmente sumergidos, las características geométricas de los vehículos y las características hidrodinámicas de las crecidas (calados y velocidades) y su probabilidad de ocurrencia, mientras que la vulnerabilidad se calcula por medio de la combinación de la susceptibilidad y la exposición de los coches. En puentes, la peligrosidad se obtiene a través del análisis de los datos de caudal disponibles y la vulnerabilidad mediante el análisis del estado estructural del puente, las características de la cuenca y del cauce aguas arriba y aguas abajo de la estructura, la estabilidad del canal y la potencial acumulación de acarreos. La metodología desarrollada se implementó para determinar el riesgo en los siguientes casos de estudio, los cuales están localizados en territorio español: (i) en las áreas urbanas correspondientes a los municipios de Alfafar y Massanassa, (ii) en los sitios de intersección entre vías y ríos localizados en el municipio de Godelleta; y (iii) en 12 puentes fluviales. Los resultados obtenidos podrían estar indicando que el método propuesto tiene en cuenta los elementos más importantes que deben considerarse al establecer este tipo de riesgo. La metodología desarrollada permite obtener un panorama detallado del riesgo de desestabilización de los vehículos debido a inundaciones en una zona determinada. En consecuencia, la implementación de esta metodología puede ayudar a disminuir los efectos negativos antes y durante este tipo de eventos, resultando de gran ayuda para las entidades encargadas de la planificación urbana y de la protección civil con el fin de diseñar e implementar acciones que permitan disminu[CAT] Les inundacions poden desestabilitzar els vehicles i aquests, al mateix temps, poden exacerbar els efectes negatius de les inundacions quan són arrossegats pel flux, generant no solament pèrdues econòmiques sinó també de vides humanes. A les ciutats, la major part de les morts durant les inundacions ocorre a l'interior dels vehicles pel fet que els conductors intenten creuar amb els seus vehicles per zones inundades (Jonkzman and Kelman 2005; Drobot et al. 2007; Kellar and Schmidlin 2012). En països desenvolupats, un alt percentatge d'aquestes morts ocorre durant inundacions llampec quan els conductors intenten creuar per zones inundades en lloc d'evitar-les (Fitzgerald et al. 2010; Kellar i Schmidlin 2012). A causa d'això, en àrees subjectes a inundacions llampec, quasi la meitat de les víctimes són passatgers atrapats en els seus propis vehicles (Versini et al. 2010a) Entre les parts de les vies que resulten afectades per les crescudes dels rius es troben els ponts, les quals són obres d'infraestructura molt importants. Un alt percentatge de les fallades dels ponts a nivell mundial es presenta com a conseqüència de les crescudes dels rius, la qual cosa té un impacte altament negatiu en els vehicles i els sistemes de transport.. A causa d'això, amb la finalitat de realitzar una adequada gestió de les inundacions és necessari determinar el risc d'inestabilitat al qual estan sotmesos els vehicles en una zona inundable. No obstant això, malgrat l'impacte negatiu de les inundacions, fins a la data es disposa de pocs estudis que permeten determinar els efectes negatius que les condicions climàtiques generen sobre els sistemes de transport (Molarius et al., 2014). En la present investigació es va desenvolupar una nova metodologia per a calcular aquest risc a partir de les característiques de les crescudes, els ponts, els vehicles, i el trànsit vehicular. Aquesta metodologia va ser generada a partir d'una estructura conceptual i un desenvolupament matemàtic nous i permet determinar el risc a través de la integral estadística de l'amenaça d'inestabilitat i la vulnerabilitat dels cotxes. En àrees urbanes i en les interseccions entre els corrents d'aigua i les vies, l'amenaça s'estableix a través d'una funció d'estabilitat de cotxes parcialment submergits, les característiques geomètriques dels vehicles i les característiques hidrodinàmiques de les crescudes (calats i velocitats) i la seua probabilitat d'ocurrència, mentre que la vulnerabilitat es calcula per mitjà de la combinació de la susceptibilitat i l'exposició dels cotxes. En ponts, la perillositat s'obté a través de l'anàlisi de les dades de cabal disponibles i la vulnerabilitat mitjançant l'anàlisi de l'estat estructural del pont, les característiques de la conca i del llit aigües amunt i aigües avall de l'estructura, l'estabilitat del canal i la potencial acumulació d'enderrocs. La metodologia desenvolupada es va implementar per a determinar el risc en els següents casos d'estudi, els quals estan localitzats en territori espanyol: (i) en les àrees urbanes corresponents als municipis d'Alfafar i Massanassa, (ii) en els llocs d'intersecció entre vies i rius localitzats en el municipi de Godelleta; i (iii) en 12 ponts fluvials. Els resultats obtinguts podrien estar indicant que el mètode proposat té en compte els elements més importants que han de considerar-se en establir aquest tipus de risc. La metodologia desenvolupada permet obtindre un panorama detallat del risc de desestabilització dels vehicles a causa d'inundacions en una zona determinada. En conseqüència, la implementació d'aquesta metodologia pot ajudar a disminuir els efectes negatius abans i durant aquesta mena d'esdeveniments, resultant de gran ajuda per a les entitats encarregades de la planificació urbana i de la protecció civil amb la finalitat de dissenyar i implementar accions que permeten disminuir els efectes negatius de les inundacions.[EN] Flooding can destabilize vehicles which might, in turn, exacerbate the negative effects of floods when vehicles are swept away by flows, leading to economic loss and fatalities. The main cause of death in cities during flood events corresponds to cars being swept away when they are driven by flooded roads (Jonkzman and Kelman 2005; Drobot et al. 2007; Kellar and Schmidlin 2012). In developed countries a high percentage of these deaths occurs during flash floods when drivers try to cross overflowing water bodies instead of avoiding them (Fitzgerald et al. 2010; Kellar and Schmidlin 2012). Hence, in areas subject to flash floods almost half of the victims are passengers trapped inside their own vehicles (Versini et al. 2010a). Among the parts of the roads that are most affected by floods are bridges, which are very important infrastructure works for society. Because of this, a high percentage of bridge failures worldwide occur as a result of river floods, which has highly negative impacts for vehicles and transportation systems. Therefore, in order to suitably manage floods, it is necessary to determine the risk of instability to which vehicles in flood-prone areas are subject. However, Despite the negative impact of floods, very few studies have centred on determining the negative effects of floods on transport systems (Molarius et al., 2014). In this research, a new methodology to estimate this risk based on the characteristics of vehicles, floods, bridges and vehicular traffic was developed. This methodology was generated from a novel conceptual structure and mathematical development and allows to determine the risk by the statistical integral of the instability hazard and the vehicles' vulnerability. In urban areas and stream crossings, the hazard is determined by a stability criterion of partially submerged cars, the geometric characteristics of the vehicles and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the floods (depths and velocities) and their probability of occurrence, while vulnerability is calculated by combining the susceptibility and exposure of cars. In bridges, the hazard is obtained by analysing available discharge data and the vulnerability by examining the structural condition of the bridge, the characteristics of the watershed and watercourse upstream and downstream of the structure, the stability of the channel and the potential accumulation of debris. The developed methodology was implemented to determine the risk in the following case studies, which are located in Spanish territory: (i) in the urban areas corresponding to the towns of Alfafar and Massanassa; (ii) in the stream crossings located in the municipality of Godelleta; and (iii) in 12 river bridges located. The results obtained could be indicating that the proposed method takes into account the most important elements to be considered when establishing this type of risk. The developed methodology provides a detailed vision of the vehicle instability risk due to flooding in a given area. Consequently, implementing this methodology can help to reduce negative effects before and during flooding events, which is extremely helpful for those organizations in charge of urban planning and civil protection to design and take actions that cushion the negative effects of flooding.I thank Colciencias for financing this research through call 728-2015.Bocanegra Vinasco, RA. (2020). Evaluation of the risk due to fluvial flooding in vehicles and road infrastructures at basin scale [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/157654TESI