A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system and (iii) a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations). We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle

Behavioral Modelling of Digital Devices Via Composite Local-Linear State-Space Relations

This paper addresses the generation of accurate and efficient behavioral models of digital ICs. The proposed approach is based on the approximation of the device port characteristics by means of composite local linear state-space relations whose parameters can effectively be estimated from device port transient responses via well-established system identification techniques. The proposedmodels have been proven to overcome some inherent limitations of the state-of-the-art models used so far, and they can effectively be implemented in any commercial tool as Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis (SPICE) subcircuits or VHDL-AMS hardware descriptions. A systematic study of the performances of the proposed state-space models is carried out on a synthetic test device. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been demonstrated on a real application problem involving commercial devices and a data link of a mobile phon

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research

Anticipated Synchronization in a Biologically Plausible Model of Neuronal Motifs

Two identical autonomous dynamical systems coupled in a master-slave configuration can exhibit anticipated synchronization (AS) if the slave also receives a delayed negative self-feedback. Recently, AS was shown to occur in systems of simplified neuron models, requiring the coupling of the neuronal membrane potential with its delayed value. However, this coupling has no obvious biological correlate. Here we propose a canonical neuronal microcircuit with standard chemical synapses, where the delayed inhibition is provided by an interneuron. In this biologically plausible scenario, a smooth transition from delayed synchronization (DS) to AS typically occurs when the inhibitory synaptic conductance is increased. The phenomenon is shown to be robust when model parameters are varied within physiological range. Since the DS-AS transition amounts to an inversion in the timing of the pre- and post-synaptic spikes, our results could have a bearing on spike-timing-dependent-plasticity models

Mechanisms of Zero-Lag Synchronization in Cortical Motifs

Zero-lag synchronization between distant cortical areas has been observed in a diversity of experimental data sets and between many different regions of the brain. Several computational mechanisms have been proposed to account for such isochronous synchronization in the presence of long conduction delays: Of these, the phenomenon of "dynamical relaying" - a mechanism that relies on a specific network motif - has proven to be the most robust with respect to parameter mismatch and system noise. Surprisingly, despite a contrary belief in the community, the common driving motif is an unreliable means of establishing zero-lag synchrony. Although dynamical relaying has been validated in empirical and computational studies, the deeper dynamical mechanisms and comparison to dynamics on other motifs is lacking. By systematically comparing synchronization on a variety of small motifs, we establish that the presence of a single reciprocally connected pair - a "resonance pair" - plays a crucial role in disambiguating those motifs that foster zero-lag synchrony in the presence of conduction delays (such as dynamical relaying) from those that do not (such as the common driving triad). Remarkably, minor structural changes to the common driving motif that incorporate a reciprocal pair recover robust zero-lag synchrony. The findings are observed in computational models of spiking neurons, populations of spiking neurons and neural mass models, and arise whether the oscillatory systems are periodic, chaotic, noise-free or driven by stochastic inputs. The influence of the resonance pair is also robust to parameter mismatch and asymmetrical time delays amongst the elements of the motif. We call this manner of facilitating zero-lag synchrony resonance-induced synchronization, outline the conditions for its occurrence, and propose that it may be a general mechanism to promote zero-lag synchrony in the brain.Comment: 41 pages, 12 figures, and 11 supplementary figure

Bayesian inference for pulsar timing models

The extremely regular, periodic radio emission from millisecond pulsars makes them useful tools for studying neutron star astrophysics, general relativity, and low-frequency gravitational waves. These studies require that the observed pulse times of arrival be fit to complex timing models that describe numerous effects such as the astrometry of the source, the evolution of the pulsar's spin, the presence of a binary companion, and the propagation of the pulses through the interstellar medium. In this paper, we discuss the benefits of using Bayesian inference to obtain pulsar timing solutions. These benefits include the validation of linearized least-squares model fits when they are correct, and the proper characterization of parameter uncertainties when they are not; the incorporation of prior parameter information and of models of correlated noise; and the Bayesian comparison of alternative timing models. We describe our computational setup, which combines the timing models of Tempo2 with the nested-sampling integrator MultiNest. We compare the timing solutions generated using Bayesian inference and linearized least-squares for three pulsars: B1953+29, J2317+1439, and J1640+2224, which demonstrate a variety of the benefits that we posit.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, RevTeX 4.1. Revised in response to referee's suggestions; contains a broader discussion of model comparison, revised Monte Carlo runs, improved figure

Analysis and equalization of data-dependent jitter

Data-dependent jitter limits the bit-error rate (BER) performance of broadband communication systems and aggravates synchronization in phase- and delay-locked loops used for data recovery. A method for calculating the data-dependent jitter in broadband systems from the pulse response is discussed. The impact of jitter on conventional clock and data recovery circuits is studied in the time and frequency domain. The deterministic nature of data-dependent jitter suggests equalization techniques suitable for high-speed circuits. Two equalizer circuit implementations are presented. The first is a SiGe clock and data recovery circuit modified to incorporate a deterministic jitter equalizer. This circuit demonstrates the reduction of jitter in the recovered clock. The second circuit is a MOS implementation of a jitter equalizer with independent control of the rising and falling edge timing. This equalizer demonstrates improvement of the timing margins that achieve 10/sup -12/ BER from 30 to 52 ps at 10 Gb/s