Watershed rainfall forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks with the assimilation of multi-sensor information

The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic models coupled with GIS-based neuro-fuzzy classification for assessing environmental vulnerability of marine cage aquaculture

There is considerable opportunity to develop new modelling techniques within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework for the development of sustainable marine cage culture. However, the spatial data sets are often uncertain and incomplete, therefore new spatial models employing “soft computing” methods such as fuzzy logic may be more suitable. The aim of this study is to develop a model using Neuro-fuzzy techniques in a 3D GIS (Arc View 3.2) to predict coastal environmental vulnerability for Atlantic salmon cage aquaculture. A 3D hydrodynamic model (3DMOHID) coupled to a particle-tracking model is applied to study the circulation patterns, dispersion processes and residence time in Mulroy Bay, Co. Donegal Ireland, an Irish fjard (shallow fjordic system), an area of restricted exchange, geometrically complicated with important aquaculture activities. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated by comparison with sea surface and water flow measurements. The model provided spatial and temporal information on circulation, renewal time, helping to determine the influence of winds on circulation patterns and in particular the assessment of the hydrographic conditions with a strong influence on the management of fish cage culture. The particle-tracking model was used to study the transport and flushing processes. Instantaneous massive releases of particles from key boxes are modelled to analyse the ocean-fjord exchange characteristics and, by emulating discharge from finfish cages, to show the behaviour of waste in terms of water circulation and water exchange. In this study the results from the hydrodynamic model have been incorporated into GIS to provide an easy-to-use graphical user interface for 2D (maps), 3D and temporal visualization (animations), for interrogation of results. v Data on the physical environment and aquaculture suitability were derived from a 3- dimensional hydrodynamic model and GIS for incorporation into the final model framework and included mean and maximum current velocities, current flow quiescence time, water column stratification, sediment granulometry, particulate waste dispersion distance, oxygen depletion, water depth, coastal protection zones, and slope. The Neuro-fuzzy classification model NEFCLASS–J, was used to develop learning algorithms to create the structure (rule base) and the parameters (fuzzy sets) of a fuzzy classifier from a set of classified training data. A total of 42 training sites were sampled using stratified random sampling from the GIS raster data layers, and the vulnerability categories for each were manually classified into four categories based on the opinions of experts with field experience and specific knowledge of the environmental problems investigated. The final products, GIS/based Neuro Fuzzy maps were achieved by combining modeled and real environmental parameters relevant to marine fin fish Aquaculture. Environmental vulnerability models, based on Neuro-fuzzy techniques, showed sensitivity to the membership shapes of the fuzzy sets, the nature of the weightings applied to the model rules, and validation techniques used during the learning and validation process. The accuracy of the final classifier selected was R=85.71%, (estimated error value of ±16.5% from Cross Validation, N=10) with a Kappa coefficient of agreement of 81%. Unclassified cells in the whole spatial domain (of 1623 GIS cells) ranged from 0% to 24.18 %. A statistical comparison between vulnerability scores and a significant product of aquaculture waste (nitrogen concentrations in sediment under the salmon cages) showed that the final model gave a good correlation between predicted environmental vi vulnerability and sediment nitrogen levels, highlighting a number of areas with variable sensitivity to aquaculture. Further evaluation and analysis of the quality of the classification was achieved and the applicability of separability indexes was also studied. The inter-class separability estimations were performed on two different training data sets to assess the difficulty of the class separation problem under investigation. The Neuro-fuzzy classifier for a supervised and hard classification of coastal environmental vulnerability has demonstrated an ability to derive an accurate and reliable classification into areas of different levels of environmental vulnerability using a minimal number of training sets. The output will be an environmental spatial model for application in coastal areas intended to facilitate policy decision and to allow input into wider ranging spatial modelling projects, such as coastal zone management systems and effective environmental management of fish cage aquaculture

Fuzzy logic control of an artificial neural network-based floating offshore wind turbine model integrated with four oscillating water columns

Renewable energy induced by wind and wave sources is playing an indispensable role in electricity production. The innovative hybrid renewable offshore platform concept, which combines Floating Offshore Wind Turbines (FOWTs) with Oscillating Water Columns (OWCs), has proven to be a promising solution to harvest clean energy. The hybrid platform can increase the total energy absorption, reduce the unwanted dynamic response of the platform, mitigate the load in critical situations, and improve the system's cost efficiency. However, the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the hybrid offshore wind system presents an opportunity for stabilization via challenging control applications. Wind and wave loads lead to stress on the FOWT tower structure, increasing the risk of damage and failure, and raising maintenance costs while lowering its performance and lifespan. Moreover, the dynamics of the tower and the platform are extremely sensitive to wind speed and wave elevation, which causes substantial destabilization in extreme conditions, particularly to the tower top displacement and the platform pitch angle. Therefore, this article focuses on two main novel targets: (i) regressive modeling of the hybrid aero-hydro-servo-elastic-mooring coupled numerical system and (ii) an ad-hoc fuzzy-based control implementation for the stabilization of the platform. In order to analyze the performance of the hybrid FOWT-OWCs, this article first employs computational Machine Learning (ML) techniques, i.e., Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to match the behavior of the detailed FOWT-OWCs numerical model. Then, a Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC) is developed and applied to establish a structural controller mitigating the undesired structural vibrations. Both modeling and control schemes are successfully implemented, showing a superior performance compared to the FOWT system without OWCs. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed ANN-based modeling is a promising alternative to other intricate nonlinear NREL 5 MW FOWT dynamical models. Meanwhile, the proposed FLC improves the platform's dynamic behavior, increasing its stability under a wide range of wind and wave conditions.This work was supported in part by the Basque Government through project IT1555-22 and through the projects RTI2018-094902-B-C22 (MCIU/AEI/FEDER, UE), PID2021-123543OB-C21 and C22 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. The authors would also like to thank the UPV/EHU for the financial support through the Maria Zambrano grant MAZAM22/15 funded by the European Union-Next Generation EU and through grant PIF20/299

Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

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Application of Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Inference System in Prediction of Breaking Wave Characteristics

Abstract Wave height as well as water depth at the breaking point are two basic parameters which are necessary for studying coastal processes. In this study, the application of soft computing-based methods such as artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy inference system (FIS), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and semi-empirical models for prediction of these parameters are investigated. The data sets used in this study are published laboratory and field data obtained from wave breaking on plane and barred, impermeable slopes collected from 24 sources. The comparison of results reveals that, the ANN model is more accurate in predicting both breaking wave height and water depth at the breaking point compared to the other methods

Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events