Black-box modeling of nonlinear system using evolutionary neural NARX model

Nonlinear systems with uncertainty and disturbance are very difficult to model using mathematic approach. Therefore, a black-box modeling approach without any prior knowledge is necessary. There are some modeling approaches have been used to develop a black box model such as fuzzy logic, neural network, and evolution algorithms. In this paper, an evolutionary neural network by combining a neural network and a modified differential evolution algorithm is applied to model a nonlinear system. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed modeling are tested on a piezoelectric actuator SISO system and an experimental quadruple tank MIMO system

Utilization Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) And Machine Learning (ML) in the Field of Energy Research

Many governments have committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2050. The main argument is that renewable resources are more eco-friendly than fossil fuels. However, the unpredictable nature of solar and wind power results in either excess or lack of energy generation. This article will evaluate the current machine-learning-based solutions for forecasting renewable energy demand and capacity. Many researchers have used machine learning (ML) to anticipate the amount of generated wind or solar energy. SVM, RNN, NN, and ELM are the most utilized algorithms. Prediction accuracy is improved through optimization (metaheuristics and evolution). These methods can forecast renewable energy for periods ranging from seconds to months. This article compares several ML methodologies and metaheuristic strategies and reviews the current state of research. The hybrid MLS outperforms the standalone optimizers. A more extensive data set for ANN, the introduction of NWP, and a shorter prediction timeframe are suggested as alternatives to Bayesian and random grid tuning. Further research on probabilistic predictions and mathematical relationships between inputs and outputs is needed to close the research gap

Advanced Statistical Modeling, Forecasting, and Fault Detection in Renewable Energy Systems

Fault detection, control, and forecasting have a vital role in renewable energy systems (Photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WTs)) to improve their productivity, ef?ciency, and safety, and to avoid expensive maintenance. For instance, the main crucial and challenging issue in solar and wind energy production is the volatility of intermittent power generation due mainly to weather conditions. This fact usually limits the integration of PV systems and WTs into the power grid. Hence, accurately forecasting power generation in PV and WTs is of great importance for daily/hourly efficient management of power grid production, delivery, and storage, as well as for decision-making on the energy market. Also, accurate and prompt fault detection and diagnosis strategies are required to improve efficiencies of renewable energy systems, avoid the high cost of maintenance, and reduce risks of fire hazards, which could affect both personnel and installed equipment. This book intends to provide the reader with advanced statistical modeling, forecasting, and fault detection techniques in renewable energy systems

Long short-term memory stacking model to predict the number of cases and deaths caused by COVID-19

info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

A survey of machine learning techniques applied to self organizing cellular networks

In this paper, a survey of the literature of the past fifteen years involving Machine Learning (ML) algorithms applied to self organizing cellular networks is performed. In order for future networks to overcome the current limitations and address the issues of current cellular systems, it is clear that more intelligence needs to be deployed, so that a fully autonomous and flexible network can be enabled. This paper focuses on the learning perspective of Self Organizing Networks (SON) solutions and provides, not only an overview of the most common ML techniques encountered in cellular networks, but also manages to classify each paper in terms of its learning solution, while also giving some examples. The authors also classify each paper in terms of its self-organizing use-case and discuss how each proposed solution performed. In addition, a comparison between the most commonly found ML algorithms in terms of certain SON metrics is performed and general guidelines on when to choose each ML algorithm for each SON function are proposed. Lastly, this work also provides future research directions and new paradigms that the use of more robust and intelligent algorithms, together with data gathered by operators, can bring to the cellular networks domain and fully enable the concept of SON in the near future

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

A technical perspective on integrating artificial intelligence to solid-state welding

The implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in industrial applications, especially solid-state welding (SSW), has transformed modeling, optimization, forecasting, and controlling sophisticated systems. SSW is a better method for joining due to the least melting of material thus maintaining Nugget region integrity. This study investigates thoroughly how AI-based predictions have impacted SSW by looking at methods like Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Machine Learning (ML), Meta-Heuristic Algorithms, and Hybrid Methods (HM) as applied to Friction Stir Welding (FSW), Ultrasonic Welding (UW), and Diffusion Bonding (DB). Studies on Diffusion Bonding reveal that ANN and Generic Algorithms can predict outcomes with an accuracy range of 85 – 99%, while Response Surface Methodology such as Optimization Strategy can achieve up to 95 percent confidence levels in improving bonding strength and optimizing process parameters. Using ANNs for FSW gives an average percentage error of about 95%, but using metaheuristics refined it at an incrementally improved accuracy rate of about 2%. In UW, ANN, Hybrid ANN, and ML models predict output parameters with accuracy levels ranging from 85 to 96%. Integrating AI techniques with optimization algorithms, for instance, GA and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) significantly improves accuracy, enhancing parameter prediction and optimizing UW processes. ANN’s high accuracy of nearly 95% compared to other techniques like FL and ML in predicting welding parameters. HM exhibits superior precision, showcasing their potential to enhance weld quality, minimize trial welds, and reduce costs and time. Various emerging hybrid methods offer better prediction accuracy

A novel soft computing approach based on FIR to model and predict energy dynamic systems

Tesi en modalitat compendi de publicacionsWe are facing a global climate crisis that is demanding a change in the status quo of how we produce, distribute and consume energy. In the last decades, this is being redefined through Smart Grids(SG), an intelligent electrical network more observable, controllable, automated, fully integrated with energy services and the end-users. Most of the features and proposed SG scenarios are based on reliable, robust and fast energy predictions. For instance, for proper planning activities, such as generation, purchasing, maintenance and investment; for demand side management, like demand response programs; for energy trading, especially at local level, where productions and consumptions are more stochastics and dynamic; better forecasts also increase grid stability and thus supply security. A large variety of Artificial Intelligence(AI) techniques have been applied in the field of Short-term electricity Load Forecasting(SLF) at consumer level in low-voltage system, showing a better performance than classical techniques. Inaccuracy or failure in the SLF process may be translated not just in a non-optimal (low prediction accuracy) solution but also in frustration of end-users, especially in new services and functionalities that empower citizens. In this regard, some limitations have been observed in energy forecasting models based on AI such as robustness, reliability, accuracy and computation in the edge. This research proposes and develops a new version of Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning(FIR), called Flexible FIR, to model and predict the electricity consumption of an entity in the low-voltage grid with high uncertainties, and information missing, as well as the capacity to be deployed either in the cloud or locally in a new version of Smart Meters(SMs) based on Edge Computing(EC). FIR has been proved to be a powerful approach for model identification and system ’s prediction over dynamic and complex processes in different real world domains but not yet in the energy domain. Thus, the main goal of this thesis is to demonstrate that a new version of FIR, more robust, reliable and accurate can be a referent Soft Computing(SC) methodology to model and predict dynamic systems in the energy domain and that it is scalable to an EC integration. The core developments of Flexible FIR have been an algorithm that can cope with missing information in the input values, as well as learn from instances with Missing Values(MVs) in the knowledge-based, without compromising significantly the accuracy of the predictions. Moreover, Flexible FIR comes with new forecasting strategies that can cope better with loss of causality of a variable and dispersion of output classes than classical k nearest neighbours, making the FIR forecasting process more reliable and robust. Furthermore, Flexible FIR addresses another major challenge modelling with SC techniques, which is to select best model parameters. One of the most important parameters in FIR is the number k of nearest neighbours to be used in the forecast process. The challenge to select the optimal k, dynamically, is addressed through an algorithm, called KOS(K nearest neighbour Optimal Selection), which has been developed and tested also with real world data. It computes a membership aggregation function of all the neighbours with respect their belonging to the output classes.While with KOS the optimal parameter k is found online, with other approaches such as genetic algorithms or reinforcement learning is not, which increases the computational time.Ens trobem davant una crisis climàtica global que exigeix un canvi al status quo de la manera que produïm, distribuïm i consumim energia. En les darreres dècades, està sent redefinit gràcies a les xarxa elèctriques intel·ligents(SG: Smart Grid) amb millor observabilitat, control, automatització, integrades amb nous serveis energètics i usuaris finals. La majoria de les funcionalitats i escenaris de les SG es basen en prediccions de la càrrega elèctrica confiables, robustes i ràpides. Per les prediccions de càrregues elèctriques a curt termini(SLF: Short-term electricity Load Forecasting), a nivell de consumidors al baix voltatge, s’han aplicat una gran varietat de tècniques intel·ligència Artificial(IA) mostrant millor rendiment que tècniques estadístiques tradicionals. Un baix rendiment en SLF, pot traduir-se no només en una solució no-òptima (baixa precisió de predicció) sinó també en la frustració dels usuaris finals, especialment en nous serveis i funcionalitats que empoderarien als ciutadans. En el marc d’aquesta investigació es proposa i desenvolupa una nova versió de la metodologia del Raonament Inductiu Difús(FIR: Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning), anomenat Flexible FIR, capaç de modelar i predir el consum d’electricitat d’una entitat amb un grau d’incertesa molt elevat, inclús amb importants carències d’informació (missing values). A més, Flexible FIR té la capacitat de desplegar-se al núvol, així como localment, en el que podria ser una nova versió de Smart Meters (SM) basada en tecnologia d’Edge Computing (EC). FIR ja ha demostrat ser una metodologia molt potent per la generació de models i prediccions en processos dinàmics en diferents àmbits, però encara no en el de l’energia. Per tant, l’objectiu principal d’aquesta tesis és demostrar que una versió millorada de FIR, més robusta, fiable i precisa pot consolidar-se com una metodologia Soft Computing SC) de referencia per modelar i predir sistemes dinàmics en aplicacions per al sector de l’energia i que és escalable a una integració d’EC. Les principals millores de Flexible FIR han estat, en primer lloc, el desenvolupament i test d’un algorisme capaç de processar els valors d’entrada d’un model FIR tot i que continguin Missing Values (MV). Addicionalment, aquest algorisme també permet aprendre d’instàncies amb MV en la matriu de coneixement d’un model FIR, sense comprometre de manera significativa la precisió de les prediccions. En segon lloc, s’han desenvolupat i testat noves estratègies per a la fase de predicció, comportant-se millor que els clàssics k veïns més propers quan ens trobem amb pèrdua de causalitat d’una variable i dispersió en les classes de sortida, aconseguint un procés d’aprenentatge i predicció més confiable i robust. En tercer lloc, Flexible FIR aborda un repte molt comú en tècniques de SC: l’òptima parametrització del model. En FIR, un dels paràmetres més determinants és el número k de veïns més propers que s’utilitzaran durant la fase de predicció. La selecció del millor valor de k es planteja de manera dinàmica a través de l’algorisme KOS (K nearest neighbour Optimal Selection) que s’ha desenvolupat i testat també amb dades reals. Mentre que amb KOS el paràmetre òptim de k es calcula online, altres enfocaments mitjançant algoritmes genètics o aprenentatge per reforç el càlcul és offline, incrementant significativament el temps de resposta, sent a més a més difícil la implantació en escenaris d’EC. Aquestes millores fan que Flexible FIR es pugui adaptar molt bé en aplicacions d’EC. En aquest sentit es proposa el concepte d’un SM de segona generació basat en EC, que integra Flexible FIR com mòdul de predicció d’electricitat executant-se en el propi dispositiu i un agent EC amb capacitat per el trading d'energia produïda localment. Aquest agent executa un innovador mecanisme basat en incentius, anomenat NRG-X-Change que utilitza una nova moneda digital descentralitzada per l’intercanvi d’energia, que s’anomena NRGcoin.Estamos ante una crisis climática global que exige un cambio del status quo de la manera que producimos, distribuimos y consumimos energía. En las últimas décadas, este status quo está siendo redefinido debido a: la penetración de las energías renovables y la generación distribuida; nuevas tecnologías como baterías y paneles solares con altos rendimientos; y la forma en que se consume la energía, por ejemplo, a través de vehículos eléctricos o con la electrificación de los hogares. Estas palancas requieren una red eléctrica inteligente (SG: Smart Grid) con mayor observabilidad, control, automatización y que esté totalmente integrada con nuevos servicios energéticos, así como con sus usuarios finales. La mayoría de las funcionalidades y escenarios de las redes eléctricas inteligentes se basan en predicciones de la energía confiables, robustas y rápidas. Por ejemplo, para actividades de planificación como la generación, compra, mantenimiento e inversión; para la gestión de la demanda, como los programas de demand response; en el trading de electricidad, especialmente a nivel local, donde las producciones y los consumos son más estocásticos y dinámicos; una mejor predicción eléctrica también aumenta la estabilidad de la red y, por lo tanto, mejora la seguridad. Para las predicciones eléctricas a corto plazo (SLF: Short-term electricity Load Forecasting), a nivel de consumidores en el bajo voltaje, se han aplicado una gran variedad de técnicas de Inteligencia Artificial (IA) mostrando mejor rendimiento que técnicas estadísticas convencionales. Un bajo rendimiento en los modelos predictivos, puede traducirse no solamente en una solución no-óptima (baja precisión de predicción) sino también en frustración de los usuarios finales, especialmente en nuevos servicios y funcionalidades que empoderan a los ciudadanos. En este sentido, se han identificado limitaciones en modelos de predicción de energía basados en IA, como la robustez, fiabilidad, precisión i computación en el borde. En el marco de esta investigación se propone y desarrolla una nueva versión de la metodología de Razonamiento Inductivo Difuso (FIR: Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning), que hemos llamado Flexible FIR, capaz de modelar y predecir el consumo de electricidad de una entidad con altos grados de incertidumbre e incluso con importantes carencias de información (missing values). Además, Flexible FIR tiene la capacidad de desplegarse en la nube, así como localmente, en lo que podría ser una nueva versión de Smart Meters (SM) basada en tecnología de Edge Computing (EC). En el pasado, ya se ha demostrado que FIR es una metodología muy potente para la generación de modelos y predicciones en procesos dinámicos, sin embargo, todavía no ha sido demostrado en el campo de la energía. Por tanto, el objetivo principal de esta tesis es demostrar que una versión mejorada de FIR, más robusta, fiable y precisa puede consolidarse como metodología Soft Computing (SC) de referencia para modelar y predecir sistemas dinámicos en aplicaciones para el sector de la energía y que es escalable hacia una integración de EC. Las principales mejoras en Flexible FIR han sido, en primer lugar, el desarrollo y testeo de un algoritmo capaz de procesar los valores de entrada en un modelo FIR a pesar de que contengan Missing Values (MV). Además, dicho algoritmo también permite aprender de instancias con MV en la matriz de conocimiento de un modelo FIR, sin comprometer de manera significativa la precisión de las predicciones. En segundo lugar, se han desarrollado y testeado nuevas estrategias para la fase de predicción de un modelo FIR, comportándose mejor que los clásicos k vecinos más cercanos ante la pérdida de causalidad de una variable y dispersión de clases de salida, consiguiendo un proceso de aprendizaje y predicción más confiable y robusto. En tercer lugar, Flexible FIR aborda un desafío muy común en técnicas de SC: la óptima parametrización del modelo. En FIR, uno de los parámetros más determinantes es el número k de vecinos más cercanos que se utilizarán en la fase de predicción. La selección del mejor valor de k se plantea de manera dinámica a través del algoritmo KOS (K nearest neighbour Optimal Selection) que se ha desarrollado y probado también con datos reales. Dicho algoritmo calcula una función de membresía agregada, de todos los vecinos, con respecto a su pertenencia a las clases de salida. Mientras que con KOS el parámetro óptimo de k se calcula online, otros enfoques mediante algoritmos genéticos o aprendizaje por refuerzo, el cálculo es offline incrementando significativamente el tiempo de respuesta, siendo además difícil su implantación en escenarios de EC. Estas mejoras hacen que Flexible FIR se adapte muy bien en aplicaciones de EC, en las que la analítica de datos en streaming debe ser fiable, robusta y con un modelo suficientemente ligero para ser ejecutado en un IoT Gateway o dispositivos más pequeños. También, en escenarios con poca conectividad donde el uso de la computación en la nube es limitado y los parámetros del modelo se calculan localmente. Con estas premisas, en esta tesis, se propone el concepto de un SM de segunda generación basado en EC, que integra Flexible FIR como módulo de predicción de electricidad ejecutándose en el dispositivo y un agente EC con capacidad para el trading de energía producida localmente. Dicho agente ejecuta un novedoso mecanismo basado en incentivos, llamado NRG-X-Change que utiliza una nueva moneda digital descentralizada para el intercambio de energía, llamada NRGcoin.Postprint (published version

Secure Data Management and Transmission Infrastructure for the Future Smart Grid

Power grid has played a crucial role since its inception in the Industrial Age. It has evolved from a wide network supplying energy for incorporated multiple areas to the largest cyber-physical system. Its security and reliability are crucial to any country’s economy and stability [1]. With the emergence of the new technologies and the growing pressure of the global warming, the aging power grid can no longer meet the requirements of the modern industry, which leads to the proposal of ‘smart grid’. In smart grid, both electricity and control information communicate in a massively distributed power network. It is essential for smart grid to deliver real-time data by communication network. By using smart meter, AMI can measure energy consumption, monitor loads, collect data and forward information to collectors. Smart grid is an intelligent network consists of many technologies in not only power but also information, telecommunications and control. The most famous structure of smart grid is the three-layer structure. It divides smart grid into three different layers, each layer has its own duty. All these three layers work together, providing us a smart grid that monitor and optimize the operations of all functional units from power generation to all the end-customers [2]. To enhance the security level of future smart grid, deploying a high secure level data transmission scheme on critical nodes is an effective and practical approach. A critical node is a communication node in a cyber-physical network which can be developed to meet certain requirements. It also has firewalls and capability of intrusion detection, so it is useful for a time-critical network system, in other words, it is suitable for future smart grid. The deployment of such a scheme can be tricky regarding to different network topologies. A simple and general way is to install it on every node in the network, that is to say all nodes in this network are critical nodes, but this way takes time, energy and money. Obviously, it is not the best way to do so. Thus, we propose a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for the searching of critical nodes. A new scheme should be proposed for smart grid. Also, an optimal planning in power grid for embedding large system can effectively ensure every power station and substation to operate safely and detect anomalies in time. Using such a new method is a reliable method to meet increasing security challenges. The evolutionary frame helps in getting optimum without calculating the gradient of the objective function. In the meanwhile, a means of decomposition is useful for exploring solutions evenly in decision space. Furthermore, constraints handling technologies can place critical nodes on optimal locations so as to enhance system security even with several constraints of limited resources and/or hardware. The high-quality experimental results have validated the efficiency and applicability of the proposed approach. It has good reason to believe that the new algorithm has a promising space over the real-world multi-objective optimization problems extracted from power grid security domain. In this thesis, a cloud-based information infrastructure is proposed to deal with the big data storage and computation problems for the future smart grid, some challenges and limitations are addressed, and a new secure data management and transmission strategy regarding increasing security challenges of future smart grid are given as well