Archetypes for histogram-valued data

Il principale sviluppo innovativo del lavoro è quello di propone una estensione dell'analisi archetipale per dati ad istogramma. Per quanto concerne l'impianto metodologico nell'approccio all'analisi di dati ad istogramma, che sono di natura complessa, il presente lavora utilizza le intuizioni della "Symbolic Data Analysis" (SDA) e le relazioni intrinseche tra dati valutati ad intervallo e dati valutati ad istogramma. Dopo aver discusso la tecnica sviluppata in ambiente Matlab, il suo funzionamento e le sue proprietà su di un esempio di comodo, tale tecnica viene proposta, nella sezione applicativa, come strumento per effettuare una analisi di tipo "benchmarking" quantitativo. Nello specifico, si propongono i principali risultati ottenuti da una applicazione degli archetipi per dati ad istogramma ad un caso di benchmarking interno del sistema scolastico, utilizzando dati provenienti dal test INVALSI relativi all'anno scolastico 2015/2016. In questo contesto l'unità di analisi è considerata essere la singola scuola, definita operativamente attraverso le distribuzioni dei punteggi dei propri alunni valutate, congiuntamente, sotto forma di oggetti simbolici ad istogramma

A Comprehensive Survey on Rare Event Prediction

Rare event prediction involves identifying and forecasting events with a low probability using machine learning and data analysis. Due to the imbalanced data distributions, where the frequency of common events vastly outweighs that of rare events, it requires using specialized methods within each step of the machine learning pipeline, i.e., from data processing to algorithms to evaluation protocols. Predicting the occurrences of rare events is important for real-world applications, such as Industry 4.0, and is an active research area in statistical and machine learning. This paper comprehensively reviews the current approaches for rare event prediction along four dimensions: rare event data, data processing, algorithmic approaches, and evaluation approaches. Specifically, we consider 73 datasets from different modalities (i.e., numerical, image, text, and audio), four major categories of data processing, five major algorithmic groupings, and two broader evaluation approaches. This paper aims to identify gaps in the current literature and highlight the challenges of predicting rare events. It also suggests potential research directions, which can help guide practitioners and researchers.Comment: 44 page

Modélisation formelle des systèmes de détection d'intrusions

L’écosystème de la cybersécurité évolue en permanence en termes du nombre, de la diversité, et de la complexité des attaques. De ce fait, les outils de détection deviennent inefficaces face à certaines attaques. On distingue généralement trois types de systèmes de détection d’intrusions : détection par anomalies, détection par signatures et détection hybride. La détection par anomalies est fondée sur la caractérisation du comportement habituel du système, typiquement de manière statistique. Elle permet de détecter des attaques connues ou inconnues, mais génère aussi un très grand nombre de faux positifs. La détection par signatures permet de détecter des attaques connues en définissant des règles qui décrivent le comportement connu d’un attaquant. Cela demande une bonne connaissance du comportement de l’attaquant. La détection hybride repose sur plusieurs méthodes de détection incluant celles sus-citées. Elle présente l’avantage d’être plus précise pendant la détection. Des outils tels que Snort et Zeek offrent des langages de bas niveau pour l’expression de règles de reconnaissance d’attaques. Le nombre d’attaques potentielles étant très grand, ces bases de règles deviennent rapidement difficiles à gérer et à maintenir. De plus, l’expression de règles avec état dit stateful est particulièrement ardue pour reconnaître une séquence d’événements. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons une approche stateful basée sur les diagrammes d’état-transition algébriques (ASTDs) afin d’identifier des attaques complexes. Les ASTDs permettent de représenter de façon graphique et modulaire une spécification, ce qui facilite la maintenance et la compréhension des règles. Nous étendons la notation ASTD avec de nouvelles fonctionnalités pour représenter des attaques complexes. Ensuite, nous spécifions plusieurs attaques avec la notation étendue et exécutons les spécifications obtenues sur des flots d’événements à l’aide d’un interpréteur pour identifier des attaques. Nous évaluons aussi les performances de l’interpréteur avec des outils industriels tels que Snort et Zeek. Puis, nous réalisons un compilateur afin de générer du code exécutable à partir d’une spécification ASTD, capable d’identifier de façon efficiente les séquences d’événements.Abstract : The cybersecurity ecosystem continuously evolves with the number, the diversity, and the complexity of cyber attacks. Generally, we have three types of Intrusion Detection System (IDS) : anomaly-based detection, signature-based detection, and hybrid detection. Anomaly detection is based on the usual behavior description of the system, typically in a static manner. It enables detecting known or unknown attacks but also generating a large number of false positives. Signature based detection enables detecting known attacks by defining rules that describe known attacker’s behavior. It needs a good knowledge of attacker behavior. Hybrid detection relies on several detection methods including the previous ones. It has the advantage of being more precise during detection. Tools like Snort and Zeek offer low level languages to represent rules for detecting attacks. The number of potential attacks being large, these rule bases become quickly hard to manage and maintain. Moreover, the representation of stateful rules to recognize a sequence of events is particularly arduous. In this thesis, we propose a stateful approach based on algebraic state-transition diagrams (ASTDs) to identify complex attacks. ASTDs allow a graphical and modular representation of a specification, that facilitates maintenance and understanding of rules. We extend the ASTD notation with new features to represent complex attacks. Next, we specify several attacks with the extended notation and run the resulting specifications on event streams using an interpreter to identify attacks. We also evaluate the performance of the interpreter with industrial tools such as Snort and Zeek. Then, we build a compiler in order to generate executable code from an ASTD specification, able to efficiently identify sequences of events

Deep Learning-Based Machinery Fault Diagnostics

This book offers a compilation for experts, scholars, and researchers to present the most recent advancements, from theoretical methods to the applications of sophisticated fault diagnosis techniques. The deep learning methods for analyzing and testing complex mechanical systems are of particular interest. Special attention is given to the representation and analysis of system information, operating condition monitoring, the establishment of technical standards, and scientific support of machinery fault diagnosis

An Approach to Guide Users Towards Less Revealing Internet Browsers

When browsing the Internet, HTTP headers enable both clients and servers send extra data in their requests or responses such as the User-Agent string. This string contains information related to the sender’s device, browser, and operating system. Previous research has shown that there are numerous privacy and security risks result from exposing sensitive information in the User-Agent string. For example, it enables device and browser fingerprinting and user tracking and identification. Our large analysis of thousands of User-Agent strings shows that browsers differ tremendously in the amount of information they include in their User-Agent strings. As such, our work aims at guiding users towards using less exposing browsers. In doing so, we propose to assign an exposure score to browsers based on the information they expose and vulnerability records. Thus, our contribution in this work is as follows: first, provide a full implementation that is ready to be deployed and used by users. Second, conduct a user study to identify the effectiveness and limitations of our proposed approach. Our implementation is based on using more than 52 thousand unique browsers. Our performance and validation analysis show that our solution is accurate and efficient. The source code and data set are publicly available and the solution has been deployed

Dataset shift in land-use classification for optical remote sensing

Multimodal dataset shifts consisting of both concept and covariate shifts are addressed in this study to improve texture-based land-use classification accuracy for optical panchromatic and multispectral remote sensing. Multitemporal and multisensor variances between train and test data are caused by atmospheric, phenological, sensor, illumination and viewing geometry differences, which cause supervised classification inaccuracies. The first dataset shift reduction strategy involves input modification through shadow removal before feature extraction with gray-level co-occurrence matrix and local binary pattern features. Components of a Rayleigh quotient-based manifold alignment framework is investigated to reduce multimodal dataset shift at the input level of the classifier through unsupervised classification, followed by manifold matching to transfer classification labels by finding across-domain cluster correspondences. The ability of weighted hierarchical agglomerative clustering to partition poorly separated feature spaces is explored and weight-generalized internal validation is used for unsupervised cardinality determination. Manifold matching solves the Hungarian algorithm with a cost matrix featuring geometric similarity measurements that assume the preservation of intrinsic structure across the dataset shift. Local neighborhood geometric co-occurrence frequency information is recovered and a novel integration thereof is shown to improve matching accuracy. A final strategy for addressing multimodal dataset shift is multiscale feature learning, which is used within a convolutional neural network to obtain optimal hierarchical feature representations instead of engineered texture features that may be sub-optimal. Feature learning is shown to produce features that are robust against multimodal acquisition differences in a benchmark land-use classification dataset. A novel multiscale input strategy is proposed for an optimized convolutional neural network that improves classification accuracy to a competitive level for the UC Merced benchmark dataset and outperforms single-scale input methods. All the proposed strategies for addressing multimodal dataset shift in land-use image classification have resulted in significant accuracy improvements for various multitemporal and multimodal datasets.Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2016.National Research Foundation (NRF)University of Pretoria (UP)Electrical, Electronic and Computer EngineeringPhDUnrestricte

Gaining Insight into Determinants of Physical Activity using Bayesian Network Learning

Contains fulltext : 228326pre.pdf (preprint version ) (Open Access) Contains fulltext : 228326pub.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BNAIC/BeneLearn 202

An uncertainty prediction approach for active learning - application to earth observation

Mapping land cover and land usage dynamics are crucial in remote sensing since farmers are encouraged to either intensify or extend crop use due to the ongoing rise in the world’s population. A major issue in this area is interpreting and classifying a scene captured in high-resolution satellite imagery. Several methods have been put forth, including neural networks which generate data-dependent models (i.e. model is biased toward data) and static rule-based approaches with thresholds which are limited in terms of diversity(i.e. model lacks diversity in terms of rules). However, the problem of having a machine learning model that, given a large amount of training data, can classify multiple classes over different geographic Sentinel-2 imagery that out scales existing approaches remains open. On the other hand, supervised machine learning has evolved into an essential part of many areas due to the increasing number of labeled datasets. Examples include creating classifiers for applications that recognize images and voices, anticipate traffic, propose products, act as a virtual personal assistant and detect online fraud, among many more. Since these classifiers are highly dependent from the training datasets, without human interaction or accurate labels, the performance of these generated classifiers with unseen observations is uncertain. Thus, researchers attempted to evaluate a number of independent models using a statistical distance. However, the problem of, given a train-test split and classifiers modeled over the train set, identifying a prediction error using the relation between train and test sets remains open. Moreover, while some training data is essential for supervised machine learning, what happens if there is insufficient labeled data? After all, assigning labels to unlabeled datasets is a time-consuming process that may need significant expert human involvement. When there aren’t enough expert manual labels accessible for the vast amount of openly available data, active learning becomes crucial. However, given a large amount of training and unlabeled datasets, having an active learning model that can reduce the training cost of the classifier and at the same time assist in labeling new data points remains an open problem. From the experimental approaches and findings, the main research contributions, which concentrate on the issue of optical satellite image scene classification include: building labeled Sentinel-2 datasets with surface reflectance values; proposal of machine learning models for pixel-based image scene classification; proposal of a statistical distance based Evidence Function Model (EFM) to detect ML models misclassification; and proposal of a generalised sampling approach for active learning that, together with the EFM enables a way of determining the most informative examples. Firstly, using a manually annotated Sentinel-2 dataset, Machine Learning (ML) models for scene classification were developed and their performance was compared to Sen2Cor the reference package from the European Space Agency – a micro-F1 value of 84% was attained by the ML model, which is a significant improvement over the corresponding Sen2Cor performance of 59%. Secondly, to quantify the misclassification of the ML models, the Mahalanobis distance-based EFM was devised. This model achieved, for the labeled Sentinel-2 dataset, a micro-F1 of 67.89% for misclassification detection. Lastly, EFM was engineered as a sampling strategy for active learning leading to an approach that attains the same level of accuracy with only 0.02% of the total training samples when compared to a classifier trained with the full training set. With the help of the above-mentioned research contributions, we were able to provide an open-source Sentinel-2 image scene classification package which consists of ready-touse Python scripts and a ML model that classifies Sentinel-2 L1C images generating a 20m-resolution RGB image with the six studied classes (Cloud, Cirrus, Shadow, Snow, Water, and Other) giving academics a straightforward method for rapidly and effectively classifying Sentinel-2 scene images. Additionally, an active learning approach that uses, as sampling strategy, the observed prediction uncertainty given by EFM, will allow labeling only the most informative points to be used as input to build classifiers; Sumário: Uma Abordagem de Previsão de Incerteza para Aprendizagem Ativa – Aplicação à Observação da Terra O mapeamento da cobertura do solo e a dinâmica da utilização do solo são cruciais na deteção remota uma vez que os agricultores são incentivados a intensificar ou estender as culturas devido ao aumento contínuo da população mundial. Uma questão importante nesta área é interpretar e classificar cenas capturadas em imagens de satélite de alta resolução. Várias aproximações têm sido propostas incluindo a utilização de redes neuronais que produzem modelos dependentes dos dados (ou seja, o modelo é tendencioso em relação aos dados) e aproximações baseadas em regras que apresentam restrições de diversidade (ou seja, o modelo carece de diversidade em termos de regras). No entanto, a criação de um modelo de aprendizagem automática que, dada uma uma grande quantidade de dados de treino, é capaz de classificar, com desempenho superior, as imagens do Sentinel-2 em diferentes áreas geográficas permanece um problema em aberto. Por outro lado, têm sido utilizadas técnicas de aprendizagem supervisionada na resolução de problemas nas mais diversas áreas de devido à proliferação de conjuntos de dados etiquetados. Exemplos disto incluem classificadores para aplicações que reconhecem imagem e voz, antecipam tráfego, propõem produtos, atuam como assistentes pessoais virtuais e detetam fraudes online, entre muitos outros. Uma vez que estes classificadores são fortemente dependente do conjunto de dados de treino, sem interação humana ou etiquetas precisas, o seu desempenho sobre novos dados é incerta. Neste sentido existem propostas para avaliar modelos independentes usando uma distância estatística. No entanto, o problema de, dada uma divisão de treino-teste e um classificador, identificar o erro de previsão usando a relação entre aqueles conjuntos, permanece aberto. Mais ainda, embora alguns dados de treino sejam essenciais para a aprendizagem supervisionada, o que acontece quando a quantidade de dados etiquetados é insuficiente? Afinal, atribuir etiquetas é um processo demorado e que exige perícia, o que se traduz num envolvimento humano significativo. Quando a quantidade de dados etiquetados manualmente por peritos é insuficiente a aprendizagem ativa torna-se crucial. No entanto, dada uma grande quantidade dados de treino não etiquetados, ter um modelo de aprendizagem ativa que reduz o custo de treino do classificador e, ao mesmo tempo, auxilia a etiquetagem de novas observações permanece um problema em aberto. A partir das abordagens e estudos experimentais, as principais contribuições deste trabalho, que se concentra na classificação de cenas de imagens de satélite óptico incluem: criação de conjuntos de dados Sentinel-2 etiquetados, com valores de refletância de superfície; proposta de modelos de aprendizagem automática baseados em pixels para classificação de cenas de imagens de satétite; proposta de um Modelo de Função de Evidência (EFM) baseado numa distância estatística para detetar erros de classificação de modelos de aprendizagem; e proposta de uma abordagem de amostragem generalizada para aprendizagem ativa que, em conjunto com o EFM, possibilita uma forma de determinar os exemplos mais informativos. Em primeiro lugar, usando um conjunto de dados Sentinel-2 etiquetado manualmente, foram desenvolvidos modelos de Aprendizagem Automática (AA) para classificação de cenas e seu desempenho foi comparado com o do Sen2Cor – o produto de referência da Agência Espacial Europeia – tendo sido alcançado um valor de micro-F1 de 84% pelo classificador, o que representa uma melhoria significativa em relação ao desempenho Sen2Cor correspondente, de 59%. Em segundo lugar, para quantificar o erro de classificação dos modelos de AA, foi concebido o Modelo de Função de Evidência baseado na distância de Mahalanobis. Este modelo conseguiu, para o conjunto de dados etiquetado do Sentinel-2 um micro-F1 de 67,89% na deteção de classificação incorreta. Por fim, o EFM foi utilizado como uma estratégia de amostragem para a aprendizagem ativa, uma abordagem que permitiu atingir o mesmo nível de desempenho com apenas 0,02% do total de exemplos de treino quando comparado com um classificador treinado com o conjunto de treino completo. Com a ajuda das contribuições acima mencionadas, foi possível desenvolver um pacote de código aberto para classificação de cenas de imagens Sentinel-2 que, utilizando num conjunto de scripts Python, um modelo de classificação, e uma imagem Sentinel-2 L1C, gera a imagem RGB correspondente (com resolução de 20m) com as seis classes estudadas (Cloud, Cirrus, Shadow, Snow, Water e Other), disponibilizando à academia um método direto para a classificação de cenas de imagens do Sentinel-2 rápida e eficaz. Além disso, a abordagem de aprendizagem ativa que usa, como estratégia de amostragem, a deteção de classificacão incorreta dada pelo EFM, permite etiquetar apenas os pontos mais informativos a serem usados como entrada na construção de classificadores