Evaluación de la calidad del aire en España usando modelos y mediciones en el período 2007-2009

Desde hace varios años, el Grupo de Modelización Atmosférica de la División de Contaminación atmosférica del CIEMAT realiza por encargo del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente (con sus distintas denominaciones) simulaciones anuales de la evolución de los contaminantes atmosféricos con modelos meteorológicos y de dispersión de contaminantes para la Península Ibérica y Baleares. Estas simulaciones tienen por objeto contribuir a la evaluación de la calidad del aire en España en cumplimiento de la legislación nacional y europea en esta materia, que exige entre otras cosas informar año a año de cual es el estado de la calidad del aire en cada país europeo

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MODEL RESOLUTION ON OZONE PREDICTIONS OVER SOME AREAS IN SPAIN

Abstract. Due to the complex chemistry involved in troposheric ozone formation, it is difficult to predict the impact of controlling ozone precursor emissions. For this reason, modeling has become an important tool to predict ozone levels under varying emission scenarios. In spite of the efforts focused on reducing pollutant emissions, ground-level ozone concentrations in Spain are still exceeding thresholds established in EU legislation to protect human health and prevent damage to ecosystems. Resolution plays a significant role in modeling, especially when trying to simulate local effects. Higher resolution allows a more accurate definition of air pollutant transport pathways, although higher computing time is required. Besides the better definition of pollutants transport, a better model performance is also expected when simulating higher resolution domains. In this paper model predictions for three different resolutions have been analyzed over some areas in Spain (Madrid, Valencia and País Vasco) for 2004. Simulations of photochemical compounds were carried out using the regional V200603par-rc1 version of the CHIMERE model. A comparison between hourly model predictions and observations was done for O3 and NO2 in 2004. An improvement of ozone predictions was found for Madrid and Valencia areas when considering a higher resolution. The improvement of model predictions is more clearly observed for NO2 in this two areas. In the País Vasco area this improvement is not observed

Association between long term exposure to particulate matter and incident hypertension in Spain

Exposure to air particulate matter has been linked with hypertension and blood pressure levels. The metabolic risks of air pollution could vary according to the specific characteristics of each area, and has not been sufficiently evaluated in Spain. We analyzed 1103 individuals, participants in a Spanish nationwide population based cohort study ([email protected]), who were free of hypertension at baseline (2008-2010) and completed a follow-up exam of the cohort (2016-2017). Cohort participants were assigned air pollution concentrations for particulate matter < 10 mu m (PM10) and < 2.5 mu m (PM2.5) during follow-up (2008-2016) obtained through modeling combined with measurements taken at air quality stations (CHIMERE chemistry-transport model). Mean and SD concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 were 20.17 +/- 3.91 mu g/m(3) and 10.83 +/- 2.08 mu g/m(3) respectively. During follow-up 282 cases of incident hypertension were recorded. In the fully adjusted model, compared with the lowest quartile of PM10, the multivariate weighted ORs (95% CIs) for developing hypertension with increasing PM10 exposures were 0.82 (0.59-1.14), 1.28 (0.93-1.78) and 1.45 (1.05-2.01) in quartile 2, 3 and 4 respectively (p for a trend of 0.003). The corresponding weighted ORs according to PM2.5 exposures were 0.80 (0.57-1.13), 1.11 (0.80-1.53) and 1.48 (1.09-2.00) (p for trend 0.004). For each 5-mu g/m(3) increment in PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations, the odds for incident hypertension increased 1.22 (1.06-1.41) p = 0.007 and 1.39 (1.07-1.81) p = 0.02 respectively. In conclusion, our study contributes to assessing the impact of particulate pollution on the incidence of hypertension in Spain, reinforcing the need for improving air quality as much as possible in order to decrease the risk of cardiometabolic disease in the population

Ambient air pollution and thyroid function in Spanish adults. A nationwide population-based study ([email protected] study)

Background Recent reports have suggested that air pollution may impact thyroid function, although the evidence is still scarce and inconclusive. In this study we evaluated the association of exposure to air pollutants to thyroid function parameters in a nationwide sample representative of the adult population of Spain. Methods The [email protected] study is a national, cross-sectional, population-based survey which was conducted in 2008-2010 using a random cluster sampling of the Spanish population. The present analyses included 3859 individuals, without a previous thyroid disease diagnosis, and with negative thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO Abs) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels of 0.1-20 mIU/L. Participants were assigned air pollution concentrations for particulate matter <2.5 mu m (PM2.5) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), corresponding to the health examination year, obtained by means of modeling combined with measurements taken at air quality stations (CHIMERE chemistry-transport model). TSH, free thyroxine (FT4), free triiodothyronine (FT3) and TPO Abs concentrations were analyzed using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay (Modular Analytics E170 Roche). Results In multivariate linear regression models, there was a highly significant negative correlation between PM2.5 concentrations and both FT4 (p<0.001), and FT3 levels (p<0.001). In multivariate logistic regression, there was a significant association between PM2.5 concentrations and the odds of presenting high TSH [OR 1.24 (1.01-1.52) p=0.043], lower FT4 [OR 1.25 (1.02-1.54) p=0.032] and low FT3 levels [1.48 (1.19-1.84) p=<0.001] per each IQR increase in PM2.5 (4.86 mu g/m(3)). There was no association between NO2 concentrations and thyroid hormone levels. No significant heterogeneity was seen in the results between groups of men, pre-menopausal and post-menopausal women. Conclusions Exposures to PM2.5 in the general population were associated with mild alterations in thyroid function.CIBERDEM (Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad-ISCIII), Ministerio de Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad-ISCIII, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PI17/02136, PI20/01322), Consejeria de Salud y familias (PI-0144-2018), European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) "A way to build Europe". GRM belongs to the regional Nicolas Monardes research program of the Consejeria de Salud (RC-0006-2016; Junta de Andalucia, Spain). CMA is recipient of a "Rio Hortega" research contract (CM19/00186, Instituto de Salud Carlos III). VKDG is recipient of a "Rio Hortega" research contract (CM21/00214, Instituto de Salud Carlos III)

An annual assessment of air quality with the CALIOPE modeling system over Spain

The CALIOPE project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, aims at establishing an air quality forecasting system for Spain. With this goal, CALIOPE modeling system was developed and applied with high resolution (4 km × 4 km, 1 h) using the HERMES emission model (including emissions of resuspended particles from paved roads) specifically built up for Spain. The present study provides an evaluation and the assessment of the modeling system, coupling WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b for a full-year simulation in 2004 over Spain. The evaluation focuses on the capability of the model to reproduce the temporal and spatial distribution of gas phase species (NO2, O3, and SO2) and particulate matter (PM10) against ground-based measurements from the Spanish air quality monitoring network. The evaluation of the modeling results on an hourly basis shows a strong dependency of the performance of the model on the type of environment (urban, suburban and rural) and the dominant emission sources (traffic, industrial, and background). The O3 chemistry is best represented in summer, when mean hourly variability and high peaks are generally well reproduced. The mean normalized error and bias meet the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) and the European regulations. Modeled O3 shows higher performance for urban than for rural stations, especially at traffic stations in large cities, since stations influenced by traffic emissions (i.e., high-NOx environments) are better characterized with a more pronounced daily variability. NOx/O3 chemistry is better represented under non-limited-NO2 regimes. SO2 is mainly produced from isolated point sources (power generation and transformation industries) which generate large plumes of high SO2 concentration affecting the air quality on a local to national scale where the meteorological pattern is crucial. The contribution of mineral dust from the Sahara desert through the BSC-DREAM8b model helps to satisfactorily reproduce episodic high PM10 concentration peaks at background stations. The model assessment indicates that one of the main air quality-related problems in Spain is the high level of O3. A quarter of the Iberian Peninsula shows more than 30 days exceeding the value 120 μg m−3 for the maximum 8-h O3 concentration as a consequence of the transport of O3 precursors downwind to/from the Madrid and Barcelona metropolitan areas, and industrial areas and cities in the Mediterranean coast

Nitrogen deposition in Spain : modeled patterns and threatened habitats within the Natura 2000 network

The Mediterranean Basin presents an extraordinary biological richness but very little information is available on the threat that air pollution, and in particular reactive nitrogen (N), can pose to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. This study represents the first approach to assess the risk of N enrichment effects on Spanish ecosystems. The suitability of EMEP and CHIMERE air quality model systems as tools to identify those areas where effects of atmospheric N deposition could be occurring was tested. For this analysis, wet deposition of NO₃− and NH₄+ estimated with EMEP and CHIMERE model systems were compared with measured data for the period 2005-2008 obtained from different monitoring networks in Spain. Wet N deposition was acceptably predicted by both models, showing better results for oxidized than for reduced nitrogen, particularly when using CHIMERE. Both models estimated higher wet deposition values in northern and northeastern Spain, and decreasing along a NE-SW axis. Total (wet + dry) nitrogen deposition in 2008 reached maxima values of 19.4 and 23.0 kg N ha¯¹ year¯¹ using EMEP and CHIMERE models respectively. Total N deposition was used to estimate the exceedance of N empirical critical loads in the Natura 2000 network. Grassland habitats proved to be the most threatened group, particularly in the northern alpine area, pointing out that biodiversity conservation in these protected areas could be endangered by N deposition. Other valuable mountain ecosystems can be also threatened, indicating the need to extend atmospheric deposition monitoring networks to higher altitudes in Spain

Assessment of the sensitivity of model responses to urban emission changes in support of emission reduction strategies

© 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/The sensitivity of air quality model responses to modifications in input data (e.g. emissions, meteorology and boundary conditions) or model configurations is recognized as an important issue for air quality modelling applications in support of air quality plans. In the framework of FAIRMODE (Forum of Air Quality Modelling in Europe, https://fairmode.jrc.ec.europa.eu/) a dedicated air quality modelling exercise has been designed to address this issue. The main goal was to evaluate the magnitude and variability of air quality model responses when studying emission scenarios/projections by assessing the changes of model output in response to emission changes. This work is based on several air quality models that are used to support model users and developers, and, consequently, policy makers. We present the FAIRMODE exercise and the participating models, and provide an analysis of the variability of O3 and PM concentrations due to emission reduction scenarios. The key novel feature, in comparison with other exercises, is that emission reduction strategies in the present work are applied and evaluated at urban scale over a large number of cities using new indicators such as the absolute potential, the relative potential and the absolute potency. The results show that there is a larger variability of concentration changes between models, when the emission reduction scenarios are applied, than for their respective baseline absolute concentrations. For ozone, the variability between models of absolute baseline concentrations is below 10%, while the variability of concentration changes (when emissions are similarly perturbed) exceeds, in some instances 100% or higher during episodes. Combined emission reductions are usually more efficient than the sum of single precursor emission reductions both for O3 and PM. In particular for ozone, model responses, in terms of linearity and additivity, show a clear impact of non-linear chemistry processes. This analysis gives an insight into the impact of model’ sensitivity to emission reductions that may be considered when designing air quality plans and paves the way of more in-depth analysis to disentangle the role of emissions from model formulation for present and future air quality assessments.Peer reviewe

Factors influencing the foliar elemental composition and stoichiometry in forest trees in Spain

Concentrations of nutrient elements in organisms and in the abiotic environment are key factors influencing ecosystem structure and function. We studied how concentrations and stoichiometries of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) in leaves of forest trees are related to phylogeny and to environmental factors (mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, forest type, and nitrogen deposition). Using data for 4691 forest plots from across Spain, we tested the following hypotheses: (i) that foliar stoichiometries of forest trees are strongly influenced by phylogeny, (ii) that climate, as an important driver of plant uptake and nutrient use efficiency, affects foliar stoichiometry, (iii) that long-term loads of N influence N, P and K concentrations and ratios in natural vegetation, and (iv) that sympatric species are differentiated according to their foliar stoichiometry, thereby reducing the intensity of resource competition. Our analyses revealed that several factors contributed to interspecific variation in elemental composition and stoichiometry. These included phylogeny, forest type, climate, N deposition, and competitive neighborhood relationships (probably related to niche segregation effect). These findings support the notion that foliar elemental composition reflects adaptation both to regional factors such as climate and to local factors such as competition with co-occurring species

Avaliação de desempenho de modelos de qualidade do ar

Mestrado em Engenharia do AmbienteA preocupação, acrescida ao longo dos anos, com a degradação da qualidade do ar, levou a União Europeia à aplicação e cumprimento de legislação, para salvaguardar a saúde e o ambiente. A Diretiva-Quadro da Qualidade do Ar reconhece as vantagens da aplicação de modelos de qualidade do ar, incentivando a sua utilização como ferramentas de avaliação e gestão. No entanto, é praticamente omissa no que se refere a metodologias de avaliação do desempenho dos modelos de qualidade do ar. A comunidade científica tem realizado esforços para estabelecer critérios de avaliação, existindo atualmente uma variedade de indicadores de desempenho de modelação da qualidade do ar. O objetivo desta dissertação consiste na identificação e compilação de indicadores de qualidade do desempenho de modelos de qualidade do ar e na proposta de gamas de valores no âmbito da Diretiva-Quadro. Com base numa extensa pesquisa bibliográfica foram selecionados os indicadores estatísticos mais comumente usados em publicações científicas com aplicação de modelos de qualidade do ar. Posteriormente definiram-se gamas de valores de desempenho aceitáveis tendo em conta a resolução espaço – temporal e o poluente simulado. Para testar a escolha de indicadores e a sua respetiva gama, procedeu-se à aplicação do modelo TAPM, estimando os valores dos parâmetros estatísticos, através da comparação entre os resultados do modelo e as concentrações medidas em estações de monitorização da qualidade do ar. Foi possível verificar que a proposta da lista de indicadores de qualidade do desempenho de modelos de qualidade do ar e a gama de valores aceitáveis face ao atual estado do conhecimento científico é de fácil aplicação, fornecendo informação relevante quanto à qualidade/razoabilidade dos valores estimados pelo modelo. Constata-se também que as gamas de valores aceitáveis dependem da escala de aplicação do modelo, da resolução temporal dos resultados analisados e do poluente em questão.The increasing concern over the years with the degradation of air quality, led the European Union to implement and enforce legislation to protect health and environment. The Air Quality Framework Directive recognizes the advantages of applying air quality models, encouraging their use as tools for assessment and management. However, there is practically no data as regarding to the methods for evaluating the performance of models of air quality. The scientific community has made efforts to establish evaluation criteria, existing currently a variety of performance indicators of air quality modeling. The aim of this work is the identification and compilation of quality indicators of the performance of air quality models and the proposal of ranges of values within the Policy Framework. Based on an extensive literature research there were selected statistical indicators most commonly used in scientific publications with application of air quality models. Later ranges of acceptable performance were defined taking into account the spatio – temporal resolution and the simulated pollutant. To test the choice of indicators and their respective range, we applied the model TAPM, estimating the values of the statistical parameters by comparing the model results and measured concentrations at monitoring stations of air quality. It was verified that the proposed list of performance quality indicators of the models of air quality and the nowadays range of acceptable values is easy to use, providing relevant information about the quality / reasonableness of the values estimated by the model. It is also noted that the ranges of acceptable values depend on the range of application of the model, on the temporal resolution of analyzed results and on the pollutant