Machine Learning for Multiclass Classification and Prediction of Alzheimer\u27s Disease

Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD) is an irreversible neurodegenerative disorder and a common form of dementia. This research aims to develop machine learning algorithms that diagnose and predict the progression of AD from multimodal heterogonous biomarkers with a focus placed on the early diagnosis. To meet this goal, several machine learning-based methods with their unique characteristics for feature extraction and automated classification, prediction, and visualization have been developed to discern subtle progression trends and predict the trajectory of disease progression. The methodology envisioned aims to enhance both the multiclass classification accuracy and prediction outcomes by effectively modeling the interplay between the multimodal biomarkers, handle the missing data challenge, and adequately extract all the relevant features that will be fed into the machine learning framework, all in order to understand the subtle changes that happen in the different stages of the disease. This research will also investigate the notion of multitasking to discover how the two processes of multiclass classification and prediction relate to one another in terms of the features they share and whether they could learn from one another for optimizing multiclass classification and prediction accuracy. This research work also delves into predicting cognitive scores of specific tests over time, using multimodal longitudinal data. The intent is to augment our prospects for analyzing the interplay between the different multimodal features used in the input space to the predicted cognitive scores. Moreover, the power of modality fusion, kernelization, and tensorization have also been investigated to efficiently extract important features hidden in the lower-dimensional feature space without being distracted by those deemed as irrelevant. With the adage that a picture is worth a thousand words, this dissertation introduces a unique color-coded visualization system with a fully integrated machine learning model for the enhanced diagnosis and prognosis of Alzheimer\u27s disease. The incentive here is to show that through visualization, the challenges imposed by both the variability and interrelatedness of the multimodal features could be overcome. Ultimately, this form of visualization via machine learning informs on the challenges faced with multiclass classification and adds insight into the decision-making process for a diagnosis and prognosis

Integrated Structural And Functional Biomarkers For Neurodegeneration

Alzheimer\u27s Disease consists of a complex cascade of pathological processes, leading to the death of cortical neurons and development of dementia. Because it is impossible to regenerate neurons that have already died, a thorough understanding of the earlier stages of the disease, before significant neuronal death has occurred, is critical for developing disease-modifying therapies. The various components of Alzheimer\u27s Disease pathophysiology necessitate a variety of measurement techniques. Image-based measurements known as biomarkers can be used to assess cortical thinning and cerebral blood flow, but non-imaging characteristics such as performance on cognitive tests and age are also important determinants of risk of Alzheimer\u27s Disease. Incorporating the various imaging and non-imaging sources of information into a scientifically interpretable and statistically sound model is challenging. In this thesis, I present a method to include imaging data in standard regression analyses in a data-driven and anatomically interpretable manner. I also introduce a technique for disentangling the effect of cortical structure from blood flow, enabling a clearer picture of the signal carried by cerebral blood flow beyond the confounding effects of anatomical structure. In addition to these technical developments in multi-modal image analysis, I show the results of two clinically-oriented studies focusing on the relative importance of various biomarkers for predicting presence of Alzheimer\u27s Disease pathology in the earliest stages of disease. In the first, I present evidence that white matter hyperintensities, a marker of small vessel disease, are more highly associated with Alzheimer\u27s Disease pathology than current mainstream imaging biomarkers in elderly control patients. In the second, I show that once Alzheimer\u27s Disease has progressed to the point of noticeable cognitive decline, cognitive tests are as predictive of presence of Alzheimer\u27s pathology as standard imaging biomarkers. Taken together, these studies demonstrate that the relative importance of biomarkers and imaging modalities changes over the course of disease progression, and sophisticated data-driven methods for combining a variety of modalities is likely to lead to greater biological insight into the disease process than a single modality

Recent publications from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative: Reviewing progress toward improved AD clinical trials

INTRODUCTION: The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) has continued development and standardization of methodologies for biomarkers and has provided an increased depth and breadth of data available to qualified researchers. This review summarizes the over 400 publications using ADNI data during 2014 and 2015. METHODS: We used standard searches to find publications using ADNI data. RESULTS: (1) Structural and functional changes, including subtle changes to hippocampal shape and texture, atrophy in areas outside of hippocampus, and disruption to functional networks, are detectable in presymptomatic subjects before hippocampal atrophy; (2) In subjects with abnormal β-amyloid deposition (Aβ+), biomarkers become abnormal in the order predicted by the amyloid cascade hypothesis; (3) Cognitive decline is more closely linked to tau than Aβ deposition; (4) Cerebrovascular risk factors may interact with Aβ to increase white-matter (WM) abnormalities which may accelerate Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in conjunction with tau abnormalities; (5) Different patterns of atrophy are associated with impairment of memory and executive function and may underlie psychiatric symptoms; (6) Structural, functional, and metabolic network connectivities are disrupted as AD progresses. Models of prion-like spreading of Aβ pathology along WM tracts predict known patterns of cortical Aβ deposition and declines in glucose metabolism; (7) New AD risk and protective gene loci have been identified using biologically informed approaches; (8) Cognitively normal and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects are heterogeneous and include groups typified not only by "classic" AD pathology but also by normal biomarkers, accelerated decline, and suspected non-Alzheimer's pathology; (9) Selection of subjects at risk of imminent decline on the basis of one or more pathologies improves the power of clinical trials; (10) Sensitivity of cognitive outcome measures to early changes in cognition has been improved and surrogate outcome measures using longitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging may further reduce clinical trial cost and duration; (11) Advances in machine learning techniques such as neural networks have improved diagnostic and prognostic accuracy especially in challenges involving MCI subjects; and (12) Network connectivity measures and genetic variants show promise in multimodal classification and some classifiers using single modalities are rivaling multimodal classifiers. DISCUSSION: Taken together, these studies fundamentally deepen our understanding of AD progression and its underlying genetic basis, which in turn informs and improves clinical trial desig

Structural gray matter features and behavioral preliterate skills predict future literacy – A machine learning approach

When children learn to read, their neural system undergoes major changes to become responsive to print. There seem to be nuanced interindividual differences in the neurostructural anatomy of regions that later become integral parts of the reading network. These differences might affect literacy acquisition and, in some cases, might result in developmental disorders like dyslexia. Consequently, the main objective of this longitudinal study was to investigate those interindividual differences in gray matter morphology that might facilitate or hamper future reading acquisition. We used a machine learning approach to examine to what extent gray matter macrostructural features and cognitive-linguistic skills measured before formal literacy teaching could predict literacy 2 years later. Forty-two native German-speaking children underwent T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging and psychometric testing at the end of kindergarten. They were tested again 2 years later to assess their literacy skills. A leave-one-out cross-validated machine-learning regression approach was applied to identify the best predictors of future literacy based on cognitive-linguistic preliterate behavioral skills and cortical measures in a priori selected areas of the future reading network. With surprisingly high accuracy, future literacy was predicted, predominantly based on gray matter volume in the left occipito-temporal cortex and local gyrification in the left insular, inferior frontal, and supramarginal gyri. Furthermore, phonological awareness significantly predicted future literacy. In sum, the results indicate that the brain morphology of the large-scale reading network at a preliterate age can predict how well children learn to read

2014 Update of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative: A review of papers published since its inception

The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) is an ongoing, longitudinal, multicenter study designed to develop clinical, imaging, genetic, and biochemical biomarkers for the early detection and tracking of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The initial study, ADNI-1, enrolled 400 subjects with early mild cognitive impairment (MCI), 200 with early AD, and 200 cognitively normal elderly controls. ADNI-1 was extended by a 2-year Grand Opportunities grant in 2009 and by a competitive renewal, ADNI-2, which enrolled an additional 550 participants and will run until 2015. This article reviews all papers published since the inception of the initiative and summarizes the results to the end of 2013. The major accomplishments of ADNI have been as follows: (1) the development of standardized methods for clinical tests, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography (PET), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers in a multicenter setting; (2) elucidation of the patterns and rates of change of imaging and CSF biomarker measurements in control subjects, MCI patients, and AD patients. CSF biomarkers are largely consistent with disease trajectories predicted by β-amyloid cascade (Hardy, J Alzheimer's Dis 2006;9(Suppl 3):151-3) and tau-mediated neurodegeneration hypotheses for AD, whereas brain atrophy and hypometabolism levels show predicted patterns but exhibit differing rates of change depending on region and disease severity; (3) the assessment of alternative methods of diagnostic categorization. Currently, the best classifiers select and combine optimum features from multiple modalities, including MRI, [(18)F]-fluorodeoxyglucose-PET, amyloid PET, CSF biomarkers, and clinical tests; (4) the development of blood biomarkers for AD as potentially noninvasive and low-cost alternatives to CSF biomarkers for AD diagnosis and the assessment of α-syn as an additional biomarker; (5) the development of methods for the early detection of AD. CSF biomarkers, β-amyloid 42 and tau, as well as amyloid PET may reflect the earliest steps in AD pathology in mildly symptomatic or even nonsymptomatic subjects and are leading candidates for the detection of AD in its preclinical stages; (6) the improvement of clinical trial efficiency through the identification of subjects most likely to undergo imminent future clinical decline and the use of more sensitive outcome measures to reduce sample sizes. Multimodal methods incorporating APOE status and longitudinal MRI proved most highly predictive of future decline. Refinements of clinical tests used as outcome measures such as clinical dementia rating-sum of boxes further reduced sample sizes; (7) the pioneering of genome-wide association studies that leverage quantitative imaging and biomarker phenotypes, including longitudinal data, to confirm recently identified loci, CR1, CLU, and PICALM and to identify novel AD risk loci; (8) worldwide impact through the establishment of ADNI-like programs in Japan, Australia, Argentina, Taiwan, China, Korea, Europe, and Italy; (9) understanding the biology and pathobiology of normal aging, MCI, and AD through integration of ADNI biomarker and clinical data to stimulate research that will resolve controversies about competing hypotheses on the etiopathogenesis of AD, thereby advancing efforts to find disease-modifying drugs for AD; and (10) the establishment of infrastructure to allow sharing of all raw and processed data without embargo to interested scientific investigators throughout the world

Identification of progressive mild cognitive impairment patients using incomplete longitudinal MRI scans

Distinguishing progressive mild cognitive impairment (pMCI) from stable mild cognitive impairment (sMCI) is critical for identification of patients who are at-risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD), so that early treatment can be administered. In this paper, we propose a pMCI/sMCI classification framework that harnesses information available in longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, which could be incomplete, to improve diagnostic accuracy. Volumetric features were first extracted from the baseline MRI scan and subsequent scans acquired after 6, 12, and 18 months. Dynamic features were then obtained by using the 18th-month scan as the reference and computing the ratios of feature differences for the earlier scans. Features that are linearly or non-linearly correlated with diagnostic labels are then selected using two elastic net sparse learning algorithms. Missing feature values due to the incomplete longitudinal data are imputed using a low-rank matrix completion method. Finally, based on the completed feature matrix, we build a multi-kernel support vector machine (mkSVM) to predict the diagnostic label of samples with unknown diagnostic statuses. Our evaluation indicates that a diagnosis accuracy as high as 78.2% can be achieved when information from the longitudinal scans is used – 6.6% higher than the case using only the reference time point image. In other words, information provided by the longitudinal history of the disease improves diagnosis accuracy

Artificial intelligence for diagnostic and prognostic neuroimaging in dementia: a systematic review

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) and neuroimaging offer new opportunities for diagnosis and prognosis of dementia. Methods: We systematically reviewed studies reporting AI for neuroimaging in diagnosis and/or prognosis of cognitive neurodegenerative diseases. Results: A total of 255 studies were identified. Most studies relied on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset. Algorithmic classifiers were the most commonly used AI method (48%) and discriminative models performed best for differentiating Alzheimer's disease from controls. The accuracy of algorithms varied with the patient cohort, imaging modalities, and stratifiers used. Few studies performed validation in an independent cohort. Discussion: The literature has several methodological limitations including lack of sufficient algorithm development descriptions and standard definitions. We make recommendations to improve model validation including addressing key clinical questions, providing sufficient description of AI methods and validating findings in independent datasets. Collaborative approaches between experts in AI and medicine will help achieve the promising potential of AI tools in practice. Highlights: There has been a rapid expansion in the use of machine learning for diagnosis and prognosis in neurodegenerative disease Most studies (71%) relied on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset with no other individual dataset used more than five times There has been a recent rise in the use of more complex discriminative models (e.g., neural networks) that performed better than other classifiers for classification of AD vs healthy controls We make recommendations to address methodological considerations, addressing key clinical questions, and validation We also make recommendations for the field more broadly to standardize outcome measures, address gaps in the literature, and monitor sources of bias

Network connectivity and structural correlates of survival in progressive supranuclear palsy and corticobasal syndrome

There is a pressing need to understand the factors that predict prognosis in progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and corticobasal syndrome (CBS), with high heterogeneity over the poor average survival. We test the hypothesis that the magnitude and distribution of connectivity changes in PSP and CBS predict the rate of progression and survival time, using datasets from the Cambridge Centre for Parkinson-plus and the UK National PSP Research Network (PROSPECT-MR). Resting-state functional MRI images were available from 146 participants with PSP, 82 participants with CBS, and 90 healthy controls. Large-scale networks were identified through independent component analyses, with correlations taken between component time series. Independent component analysis was also used to select between-network connectivity components to compare with baseline clinical severity, longitudinal rate of change in severity, and survival. Transdiagnostic survival predictors were identified using partial least squares regression for Cox models, with connectivity compared to patients' demographics, structural imaging, and clinical scores using five-fold cross-validation. In PSP and CBS, between-network connectivity components were identified that differed from controls, were associated with disease severity, and were related to survival and rate of change in clinical severity. A transdiagnostic component predicted survival beyond demographic and motion metrics but with lower accuracy than an optimal model that included the clinical and structural imaging measures. Cortical atrophy enhanced the connectivity changes that were most predictive of survival. Between-network connectivity is associated with variability in prognosis in PSP and CBS but does not improve predictive accuracy beyond clinical and structural imaging metrics