38,311 research outputs found
National and international freight transport models: overview and ideas for further development
This paper contains a review of the literature on freight transport models, focussing on the types of models that have been developed since the nineties for forecasting, policy simulation and project evaluation at the national and international level. Models for production, attraction, distribution, modal split and assignment are discussed in the paper. Furthermore, the paper also includes a number of ideas for future development, especially for the regional and urban components within national freight transport models
Point process-based modeling of multiple debris flow landslides using INLA: an application to the 2009 Messina disaster
We develop a stochastic modeling approach based on spatial point processes of
log-Gaussian Cox type for a collection of around 5000 landslide events provoked
by a precipitation trigger in Sicily, Italy. Through the embedding into a
hierarchical Bayesian estimation framework, we can use the Integrated Nested
Laplace Approximation methodology to make inference and obtain the posterior
estimates. Several mapping units are useful to partition a given study area in
landslide prediction studies. These units hierarchically subdivide the
geographic space from the highest grid-based resolution to the stronger
morphodynamic-oriented slope units. Here we integrate both mapping units into a
single hierarchical model, by treating the landslide triggering locations as a
random point pattern. This approach diverges fundamentally from the unanimously
used presence-absence structure for areal units since we focus on modeling the
expected landslide count jointly within the two mapping units. Predicting this
landslide intensity provides more detailed and complete information as compared
to the classically used susceptibility mapping approach based on relative
probabilities. To illustrate the model's versatility, we compute absolute
probability maps of landslide occurrences and check its predictive power over
space. While the landslide community typically produces spatial predictive
models for landslides only in the sense that covariates are spatially
distributed, no actual spatial dependence has been explicitly integrated so far
for landslide susceptibility. Our novel approach features a spatial latent
effect defined at the slope unit level, allowing us to assess the spatial
influence that remains unexplained by the covariates in the model
An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)
Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the
sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global
environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models
improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make
predictions about the quantity and location of future and past
change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented
framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming
language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following
limitations associated with the current land use change modelling
paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is
frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of
scientific results and making it impossible for members of the
community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2)
ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are
difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations
of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling
procedure must be performed in different environments because
existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of
change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation
procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S
algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use
change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included
with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future
model development and comparison within an open environment
Delineation of high resolution climate regions over the Korean Peninsula using machine learning approaches
In this research, climate classification maps over the Korean Peninsula at 1 km resolution were generated using the satellite-based climatic variables of monthly temperature and precipitation based on machine learning approaches. Random forest (RF), artificial neural networks (ANN), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machines (SVM) were used to develop models. Training and validation of these models were conducted using in-situ observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) from 2001 to 2016. The rule of the traditional Koppen-Geiger (K-G) climate classification was used to classify climate regions. The input variables were land surface temperature (LST) of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), monthly precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 product, and the Digital Elevation Map (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The overall accuracy (OA) based on validation data from 2001 to 2016 for all models was high over 95%. DEM and minimum winter temperature were two distinct variables over the study area with particularly high relative importance. ANN produced more realistic spatial distribution of the classified climates despite having a slightly lower OA than the others. The accuracy of the models using high altitudinal in-situ data of the Mountain Meteorology Observation System (MMOS) was also assessed. Although the data length of the MMOS data was relatively short (2013 to 2017), it proved that the snowy, dry and cold winter and cool summer class (Dwc) is widely located in the eastern coastal region of South Korea. Temporal shifting of climate was examined through a comparison of climate maps produced by period: from 1950 to 2000, from 1983 to 2000, and from 2001 to 2013. A shrinking trend of snow classes (D) over the Korean Peninsula was clearly observed from the ANN-based climate classification results. Shifting trends of climate with the decrease/increase of snow (D)/temperate (C) classes were clearly shown in the maps produced using the proposed approaches, consistent with the results from the reanalysis data of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)
Research Directions in Information Systems for Humanitarian Logistics
This article systematically reviews the literature on using IT (Information Technology) in humanitarian logistics focusing on disaster relief operations. We first discuss problems in humanitarian relief logistics. We then identify the stage and disaster type for each article as well as the article’s research methodology and research contribution. Finally, we identify potential future research directions
Agent and cyber-physical system based self-organizing and self-adaptive intelligent shopfloor
The increasing demand of customized production results in huge challenges to the traditional manufacturing systems. In order to allocate resources timely according to the production requirements and to reduce disturbances, a framework for the future intelligent shopfloor is proposed in this paper. The framework consists of three primary models, namely the model of smart machine agent, the self-organizing model, and the self-adaptive model. A cyber-physical system for manufacturing shopfloor based on the multiagent technology is developed to realize the above-mentioned function models. Gray relational analysis and the hierarchy conflict resolution methods were applied to achieve the self-organizing and self-adaptive capabilities, thereby improving the reconfigurability and responsiveness of the shopfloor. A prototype system is developed, which has the adequate flexibility and robustness to configure resources and to deal with disturbances effectively. This research provides a feasible method for designing an autonomous factory with exception-handling capabilities
Satellite-Based Assessment of Grassland Conversion and Related Fire Disturbance in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
Spruce beetle-induced (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby)) mortality on the Kenai Peninsula has been hypothesized by local ecologists to result in the conversion of forest to grassland and subsequent increased fire danger. This hypothesis stands in contrast to empirical studies in the continental US which suggested that beetle mortality has only a negligible effect on fire danger. In response, we conducted a study using Landsat data and modeling techniques to map land cover change in the Kenai Peninsula and to integrate change maps with other geospatial data to predictively map fire danger for the same region. We collected Landsat imagery to map land cover change at roughly five-year intervals following a severe, mid-1990s beetle infestation to the present. Land cover classification was performed at each time step and used to quantify grassland encroachment patterns over time. The maps of land cover change along with digital elevation models (DEMs), temperature, and historical fire data were used to map and assess wildfire danger across the study area. Results indicate the highest wildfire danger tended to occur in herbaceous and black spruce land cover types, suggesting that the relationship between spruce beetle damage and wildfire danger in costal Alaskan forested ecosystems differs from the relationship between the two in the forests of the coterminous United States. These change detection analyses and fire danger predictions provide the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (KENWR) ecologists and other forest managers a better understanding of the extent and magnitude of grassland conversion and subsequent change in fire danger following the 1990s spruce beetle outbreak
Hierarchical spatial models for predicting tree species assemblages across large domains
Spatially explicit data layers of tree species assemblages, referred to as
forest types or forest type groups, are a key component in large-scale
assessments of forest sustainability, biodiversity, timber biomass, carbon
sinks and forest health monitoring. This paper explores the utility of coupling
georeferenced national forest inventory (NFI) data with readily available and
spatially complete environmental predictor variables through spatially-varying
multinomial logistic regression models to predict forest type groups across
large forested landscapes. These models exploit underlying spatial associations
within the NFI plot array and the spatially-varying impact of predictor
variables to improve the accuracy of forest type group predictions. The
richness of these models incurs onerous computational burdens and we discuss
dimension reducing spatial processes that retain the richness in modeling. We
illustrate using NFI data from Michigan, USA, where we provide a comprehensive
analysis of this large study area and demonstrate improved prediction with
associated measures of uncertainty.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS250 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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