Multi-objective fuzzy rule-based prediction and uncertainty quantification of aircraft taxi time

The ever growing air traffic demand and highly connected air transportation networks put considerable pressure for the sector to optimise air traffic management (ATM) related performances and develop robust ATM systems. Recent efforts made in accurate aircraft taxi time prediction have shown significant advancement in generating more efficient taxi routes and schedules, benefiting other key airside operations, such as runway sequencing and gate assignment. However, little study has been devoted to quantification of uncertainty associated with taxiing aircraft. Routes and schedules generated based on deterministic and accurate taxi time prediction for an aircraft may not be resilient under uncertainties due to factors such as varying weather conditions, operational scenarios and pilot behaviours, impairing system-wide performance as taxi delays can propagate throughout the network. Therefore, the primary aim of this paper is to utilise multi-objective fuzzy rule-based systems to better quantify such uncertainties based on historic aircraft taxiing data. Preliminary results reveals that the proposed approach can capture uncertainty in a more informative way, and hence represents a promising tool to further develop robust taxi planning to reduce delays due to uncertain taxi times

A fuzzy approach to addressing uncertainty in Airport Ground Movement optimisation

Funded by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Counci

Pilot3 D2.1 - Trade-off report on multi criteria decision making techniques

This deliverable describes the decision making approach that will be followed in Pilot3. It presents a domain-driven analysis of the characteristics of Pilot3 objective function and optimisation framework. This has been done considering inputs from deliverable D1.1 - Technical Resources and Problem definition, from interaction with the Topic Manager, but most importantly from a dedicated Advisory Board workshop and follow-up consultation. The Advisory Board is formed by relevant stakeholders including airlines, flight operation experts, pilots, and other relevant ATM experts. A review of the different multi-criteria decision making techniques available in the literature is presented. Considering the domain-driven characteristics of Pilot3 and inputs on how the tool could be used by airlines and crew. Then, the most suitable methods for multi-criteria optimisation are selected for each of the phases of the optimisation framework

Future Transportation

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with transportation activities account for approximately 20 percent of all carbon dioxide (co2) emissions globally, making the transportation sector a major contributor to the current global warming. This book focuses on the latest advances in technologies aiming at the sustainable future transportation of people and goods. A reduction in burning fossil fuel and technological transitions are the main approaches toward sustainable future transportation. Particular attention is given to automobile technological transitions, bike sharing systems, supply chain digitalization, and transport performance monitoring and optimization, among others

FLIGHT RISK MANAGEMENT AND CREW RESERVE OPTIMIZATION

There are two key concerns in the development process of aviation. One is safety, and the other is cost. An airline running with high safety and low cost must be the most competitive one in the market. This work investigates two research efforts respectively relevant to these two concerns. When building support of a real time Flight Risk Assessment and Mitigation System (FRAMS), a sequential multi-stage approach is developed. The whole risk management process is considered in order to improve the safety of each flight by integrating AHP and FTA technique to describe the framework of all levels of risks through risk score. Unlike traditional fault tree analysis, severity level, time level and synergy effect are taken into account when calculating the risk score for each flight. A risk tree is designed for risk data with flat shape structure and a time sensitive optimization model is developed to support decision making of how to mitigate risk with as little cost as possible. A case study is solved in reasonable time to approve that the model is practical for the real time system. On the other hand, an intense competitive environment makes cost controlling more and more important for airlines. An integrated approach is developed for improving the efficiency of reserve crew scheduling which can contribute to decrease cost. Unlike the other technique, this approach integrates the demand forecasting, reserve pattern generation and optimization. A reserve forecasting tool is developed based on a large data base. The expected value of each type of dropped trip is the output of this tool based on the predicted dropping rate and the total scheduled trips. The rounding step in current applied methods is avoided to keep as much information as possible. The forecasting stage is extended to the optimization stage through the input of these expected values. A novel optimization model with column generation algorithm is developed to generate patterns to cover these expected level reserve demands with minimization to the total cost. The many-to-many covering mode makes the model avoid the influence of forecasting errors caused by high uncertainty as much as possible

Towards a more realistic, cost effective and greener ground movement through active routing: part 1 - optimal speed profile generation

Among all airport operations, aircraft ground movement plays a key role in improving overall airport capacity as it links other airport operations. Moreover, ever increasing air traffic, rising costs and tighter environmental targets create a pressure to minimise fuel burn on the ground. However, current routing functions envisioned in Advanced Surface Movement, Guidance and Control Systems (A-SMGCS) almost exclusively consider the most time efficient solution and apply a conservative separation to ensure conflict free surface movement, sometimes with additional buffer times to absorb small deviations from the taxi times. Such an overly constrained routing approach may result in either a too tight planning for some aircraft so that fuel efficiency is compromised due to multiple acceleration phases, or performance could be further improved by reducing the separation and buffer times. In light of this, Part 1 and 2 of this paper present a new Active Routing framework with the aim of providing a more realistic, cost effective and environmental friendly surface movement, targeting some of the busiest international hub airports. Part 1 of this paper focuses on optimal speed profile generation using a physics based aircraft movement model. Two approaches based respectively on the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) engine emissions database have been employed to model fuel consumption. These models are then embedded within a mutli-objective optimization framework to capture the essence of different speed profiles in a Pareto optimal sense. The proposed approach represents the first attempt to systematically address speed profiles with competing objectives. Results reveal an apparent trade-off between fuel burn and taxi times irrespective of fuel consumption modelling approaches. This will have a profound impact on the routing and scheduling, and open the door for the new concept of Active Routing discussed in Part 2 of this paper

QUANTITATIVE SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS THROUGH SYSTEM CONTROL CAPACITY

Quantitative Safety Assessments (QSA) are essential to safety benefit verification and regulations of developmental changes in safety critical systems like the Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems. Effectiveness of the assessments is particularly desirable today in the safe implementations of revolutionary ATC overhauls like NextGen and SESAR. QSA of ATC systems are however challenged by system complexity and lack of accident data

3D-in-2D Displays for ATC.

This paper reports on the efforts and accomplishments of the 3D-in-2D Displays for ATC project at the end of Year 1. We describe the invention of 10 novel 3D/2D visualisations that were mostly implemented in the Augmented Reality ARToolkit. These prototype implementations of visualisation and interaction elements can be viewed on the accompanying video. We have identified six candidate design concepts which we will further research and develop. These designs correspond with the early feasibility studies stage of maturity as defined by the NASA Technology Readiness Level framework. We developed the Combination Display Framework from a review of the literature, and used it for analysing display designs in terms of display technique used and how they are combined. The insights we gained from this framework then guided our inventions and the human-centered innovation process we use to iteratively invent. Our designs are based on an understanding of user work practices. We also developed a simple ATC simulator that we used for rapid experimentation and evaluation of design ideas. We expect that if this project continues, the effort in Year 2 and 3 will be focus on maturing the concepts and employment in a operational laboratory settings

Real-Time Monitoring and Prediction of Airspace Safety

The U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) has reached an extremely high level of safety in recent years. However, it will only become more difficult to maintain the current level of safety with the forecasted increase in operations, and so the FAA has been making revolutionary changes to the NAS to both expand capacity and ensure safety. Our work complements these efforts by developing a novel model-based framework for real-time monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. Our framework is divided into two parts: (offline) safety analysis and modeling part, and a real-time (online) monitoring and prediction of safety. The goal of the safety analysis task is to identify hazards to flight (distilled from several national databases) and to codify these hazards within our framework such that we can monitor and predict them. From these we define safety metrics that can be monitored and predicted using dynamic models of airspace operations, aircraft, and weather, along with a rigorous, mathematical treatment of uncertainty. We demonstrate our overall approach and highlight the advantages of this approach over the current state-of-the-art through simulated scenarios