The Impact of Contact Tracing on the Spread of COVID-19: An Egocentric Agent-Based Model

At its core, contact tracing is a form of egocentric network analysis (ENA). One of the biggest obstacles for ENA is informant accuracy (i.e., amount of true contacts identified), which is even more prominent for interaction-based network ties because they often represent episodic relational events, rather than enduring relational states. This research examines the effect of informant accuracy on the spread of COVID-19 through an egocentric, agent-based model. Overall when the average person transmits COVID-19 to 1.62 other people (i.e., the R0), they must be, on average, 75% accurate with naming their contacts. In higher transmission contexts (i.e., transmitting to at least two other people), the results show that multi-level tracing (i.e., contact tracing the contacts) is the only viable strategy. Finally, sensitivity analysis shows that the effectiveness of contact tracing is negatively impacted by the timing and overall percent of asymptomatic cases. Overall, the results suggest that if contact tracing is to be effective, it must be fast, accurate, and accompanied by other interventions like mask-wearing to drive down the average R0

Students' Intention of Visiting Urban Green Spaces after the COVID-19 Lockdown in China.

This study addresses students' perceptions of using urban green spaces (UGSs) after the easing of COVID-19 lockdown in China. We questioned whether they are still mindful of the risks from the outdoor gathering, or conversely, starting to learn the restoration benefits from the green spaces. Online self-reported surveys were distributed to the Chinese students aging from 14 to 30 who study in Hunan and Jiangsu Provinces, China. We finally obtained 608 complete and valid questionnaire forms from all participants. Their intentions of visiting UGSs were investigated based on the extended theory of planned behavior model. Structural equation modeling was employed to test the hypothesized psychological model. The results have shown good estimation performance on risk perception and perceived knowledge to explain the variances in their attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavior control. Among these three endogenous variables, the perceived behavior control owns the greatest and positive influence on the behavioral intention, inferring that controllability is crucial for students to make decisions of visiting green spaces in a post-pandemic context

Impacts on Men’s Health/Mental Health

Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2022 de Sousa, Moreira, da Silva Santana, Araújo, Borges, Almeida, das Mercês, da Silva, Teixeira, Lourenção, Gomes, de Santana Carvalho, de Sousa, de Almeida, Viana and Pereira.Objective: This study aims to analyze sociohistorically how the normative patterns of hegemonic masculinity produced impacts on men’s health/mental health in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A qualitative study from a socio-historical perspective was conducted with 50 men based on an online survey. A semistructured form was applied. The data were analyzed by the Collective Subject Discourse method, interpreted in the light of the context of epidemic disease and hegemonic masculinity. Results: The experience of the pandemic exposed the normative patterns of masculinities from the consummation of acts representative of the pandemic context, which incited men to deny the existence of COVID-19 disease and to delay the understanding and adoption of measures to protect and control COVID-19. As a repercussion, men presented conflicts in the regulation of emotions; presented emotional suppression; were more reactive; felt threatened regarding the loss of the role of family provider, virility; and revealed a sense of invulnerability, added to the weakening of self-care. Conclusion: The discourse revealed that the men’s behaviors are consistent with the characteristics of hegemonic masculinity, but express signs of recognition that this behavior causes harm to themselves and their health.publishersversionpublishe

Investigating HIV Spreading Mechanisms and Policy Alternatives in Russia: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

Master's Thesis in System DynamicsGEO-SD351MASV-SYSDYINTL-KMDINTL-SVINTL-MNINTL-PSYKINTL-HFINTL-MEDINTL-JU

Three Essays on Individuals’ Vulnerability to Security Attacks in Online Social Networks: Factors and Behaviors

With increasing reliance on the Internet, the use of online social networks (OSNs) for communication has grown rapidly. OSN platforms are used to share information and communicate with friends and family. However, these platforms can pose serious security threats to users. In spite of the extent of such security threats and resulting damages, little is known about factors associated with individuals’ vulnerability to online security attacks. We address this gap in the following three essays. Essay 1 draws on a synthesis of the epidemic theory in infectious disease epidemiology with the social capital theory to conceptualize factors that contribute to an individual’s role in security threat propagation in OSN. To test the model, we collected data and created a network of hacked individuals over three months from Twitter. The final hacked network consists of over 8000 individual users. Using this data set, we derived individual’s factors measuring threat propagation efficacy and threat vulnerability. The dependent variables were defined based on the concept of epidemic theory in disease propagation. The independent variables are measured based on the social capital theory. We use the regression method for data analysis. The results of this study uncover factors that have significant impact on threat propagation efficacy and threat vulnerability. We discuss the novel theoretical and managerial contributions of this work. Essay 2 explores the role of individuals’ interests in their threat vulnerability in OSNs. In OSNs, individuals follow social pages and post contents that can easily reveal their topics of interest. Prior studies show high exposure of individuals to topics of interest can decrease individuals’ ability to evaluate the risks associated with their interests. This gives attackers a chance to target people based on what they are interested in. However, interest-based vulnerability is not just a risk factor for individuals themselves. Research has reported that similar interests lead to friendship and individuals share similar interests with their friends. This similarity can increase trust among friends and makes individuals more vulnerable to security threat coming from their friends’ behaviors. Despite the potential importance of interest in the propagation of online security attacks online, the literature on this topic is scarce. To address this gap, we capture individuals’ interests in OSN and identify the association between individuals’ interests and their vulnerability to online security threats. The theoretical foundation of this work is a synthesis of dual-system theory and the theory of homophily. Communities of interest in OSN were detected using a known algorithm. We test our model using the data set and social network of hacked individuals from Essay 1. We used this network to collect additional data about individuals’ interests in OSN. The results determine communities of interests which were associated with individuals’ online threat vulnerability. Moreover, our findings reveal that similarities of interest among individuals and their friends play a role in individuals’ threat vulnerability in OSN. We discuss the novel theoretical and empirical contributions of this work. Essay 3 examines the role addiction to OSNs plays in individuals’ security perceptions and behaviors. Despite the prevalence of problematic use of OSNs and the possibility of addiction to these platforms, little is known about the functionalities of brain systems of users who suffer from OSN addiction and their online security perception and behaviors. In addressing these gaps, we have developed the Online addiction & security behaviors (OASB) theory by synthesizing dual-system theory and extended protection motivation theory (PMT). We collected data through an online survey. The results indicate that OSN addiction is rooted in the individual’s brain systems. For the OSN addicted, there is a strong cognitive-emotional preoccupation with using OSN. Our findings also reveal the positive and significant impact of OSN addiction on perceived susceptibility to and severity of online security threats. Moreover, our results show the negative association between OSN addiction and perceived self-efficacy. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of this work

Feature Papers of Forecasting

Nowadays, forecast applications are receiving unprecedent attention thanks to their capability to improve the decision-making processes by providing useful indications. A large number of forecast approaches related to different forecast horizons and to the specific problem that have to be predicted have been proposed in recent scientific literature, from physical models to data-driven statistic and machine learning approaches. In this Special Issue, the most recent and high-quality researches about forecast are collected. A total of nine papers have been selected to represent a wide range of applications, from weather and environmental predictions to economic and management forecasts. Finally, some applications related to the forecasting of the different phases of COVID in Spain and the photovoltaic power production have been presented

Implementasi Pembelajaran pada Masa Lockdown bagi Lembaga PAUD di Kabupaten Lombok Timur

Lembaga PAUD sebagai pelaksana proses pembelajaran berperan penting dalam pelaksanaan pembelajaran di rumah selama pandemi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk melihat implementasi pembelajaran di PAUD selama Pandemi Covid-19 dari Lembaga PAUD yang ada di Kabupaten Lombok Timur. Terdapat 30 sampel Lembaga PAUD dengan jenis penelitian kualitatif. Instrumen yang digunakan adalah wawancara, observasi, angket dan dokumentasi. proses analisis data menggunakan analisis miles Hubberman dengan triangulasi data. Tiga aktivitas utama yang digunakan dalam penerapan pembelajaran yaitu penugasan (A), Home Visit (B), Laporan Kegiatan Harian Anak (3). Ketiga aktivitas utama ini yang paling banyak digunakan oleh pihak Lembaga PAUD adalah Penugasan (A) dan kolaborasi Penugasan dengan Home Visit (AB), dan terdapat pula Lembaga yang menggunakan ketiga aktivitas kegiatan pembelajaran tersebut yaitu kolaborasi Penugasan , Home Visit dan Laporan Kegiatan Anak (ABC

Strategi Pembelajaran Motorik Kasar pada Anak Usia Dini Era Pandemi Covid-19

This study aims to see the teacher's strategy in achieving gross motor learning goals during the Covid-19 pandemic. The type of research used is descriptive qualitative. The object of this research is the class teacher group A TK ABA Gunung Ketur Pakualaman Yogyakarta. Data interview technique by interview. The analysis of this research used Milles and Huberman. Test the validity of the data by using triangulation of sources and techniques. The results showed application of learning strategies is carried out, namely first, by making gross motoric learning videos then sharing them through the WhatsApp group. Second, using direct video calls with a race in it and the third, giving freedom to children to search for gross motor movement videos on YouTube. Obstacles in learning are slow parental response, bad signals, limited internet quota. For this reason, the teacher carries out home visit solutions to the homes of parents of students who have problems in the learning process

Contact Tracing in the Era of Covid-19: Implementation of Traditional Strategies in Novel Contexts and Innovative Approaches to Address Existing Barriers

Background: Contact tracing is an evidence-based intervention that became a core component of many COVID-19 response plans throughout the globe. Despite its demonstrated success within other disease contexts, early studies of COVID-19 contact tracing have reported mixed results regarding the effectiveness and impact of contact tracing on ultimate pandemic objectives such as case incidence or mortality. Yet, there remains a knowledge gap regarding contextual factors that influence implementation outcomes of contact tracing that may in turn influence its ultimate impact. The primary objective of this dissertation is to address this knowledge deficit by evaluating an emergency contact tracing program developed at the onset of the pandemic and evaluating the performance of various Bluetooth-assisted contact tracing technologies. Methods: The emergency contact tracing program evaluated throughout this dissertation was established in partnership between the New Haven Health Department and Yale School of Public Health in March, 2020. In Aim 1 (Chapter 2), I evaluate implementation outcomes including reach (proportion of cases and contacts interviewed), timeliness (time from case testing to subsequent contact tracing steps), and sustainability of volunteer workforces. Within this Aim, I use quantitative methods including descriptive cascades to identify common reasons for case and contact drop-out, descriptive time measurements to evaluate timeliness of cumulative and individual contact tracing steps, and multilevel regression analyses to evaluate factors associated with successfully reaching cases and contacts. In Aim 2, I first use focus groups with contact tracers (Chapter 3) to qualitatively explore contextual elements associated with successful delivery of contact tracing. I use thematic analysis to analyze transcripts and the RE-AIM implementation science framework to organize the identified themes. In the second half of Aim 2 (Chapter 4), I draw on interviews with COVID-19 cases and contacts to qualitatively explore elements that influence behaviors upon which the uptake of contact tracing relies. These behaviors include testing, answering phone calls, participating in interviews, and isolating/quarantining. I thematically analyze transcripts and use the COM-B model of behavior change to organize the findings. In Aim 3 (Chapter 5), I evaluate two Bluetooth technologies used in a contact tracing pilot on a university campus. The first technology is an app-based approach, while the second uses a small, portable device to record Bluetooth data. I measure the sensitivity and specificity of each technology by comparing Bluetooth contact records to daily self-report records. I then use a post-participation survey to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the experiences of technology users and explore their perspectives. Results: Of the 1,705 cases reported in Aim 1, 545 (32%) were not reached due to missing key information, and another 334 (20%) were not reached due to their declining the calls or interview invitations. Ultimately, only 826 (48%) were interviewed. Of the 2,437 contacts reported by interviewed cases, 1,597 (66%) were not reached due to missing information, and another 153 (6%) were not reached due to their declining calls or interview invitations. Ultimately, only 687 (28%) were notified of their exposure. Median time to case interview from testing was five days and time to contact notification was 8 days. Various individual-, program-, and case-cluster factors were associated with successful outreach. Support from public health nurses was needed to stabilize the emergency contact tracing workforce due to surging caseloads and limited sustainability of volunteers (median time from sign-up to retirement from program was four weeks). In Aim 2, contact tracers identified many challenges and successes of the program’s implementation and made recommendations for improvement. Successfully engaging cases and contacts (the group hereafter referred to as “clients”) appeared dependent on outreach preferences, tracer communication skills, and sources of community mistrust. Effectiveness of contact tracing appeared threatened by time delays and the difficulties of isolation and quarantine. Adoption of a volunteer workforce appeared to rely on volunteer motivations, collaborative training, and supervision. Last, implementation efficiency was influenced by available tools and coordination with other agencies, and program maintenance was threatened by the low sustainability of volunteer workforces. Interviews with clients shed light on additional elements influencing specific behaviors required in successful contact tracing, and these findings were categorized within the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, Behavior (COM-B) Model. Capability of clients to engage in tracing efforts was influenced by COVID-19 symptoms or baseline knowledge. Opportunities for engagement were influenced by structural and contextual resources and ties within social networks. Last, Motivation to engage in tracing efforts was influenced by symptoms, beliefs about deliverables and consequences of participating, trust in the health system, and emotional reactions of clients. In Aim 3, the portable device had higher sensitivity (94% vs 57%; p\u3c.001) and specificity (95% vs 87%; p=.02) compared to the app-only technology. Participants largely considered Bluetooth contact tracing to be appropriate on a university campus but felt less comfortable with using GPS or Wi-Fi technologies. Most preferred technology that was developed and managed by the university compared to a third party, and privacy concerns were common. Conclusions: This dissertation presents some of the earliest efforts to better understand the contextual factors influencing success of COVID-19 contact tracing implementation, and its use of multiple and mixed methods to explore the implementation of contact tracing allows for the triangulation of findings from each individual Aim. Lacking information required for outreach posed a major barrier to reaching cases and contacts, although individual, case-cluster, and program-level factors associated with implementation success were also noted. While volunteers appeared to be an appropriate solution to emergency workforce needs, sustainability poses a significant threat to volunteer-driven programs as demonstrated quantitatively and qualitatively. Focus group and interview participants identified many individual-, program- and systems-level contextual elements influencing contact tracing delivery and uptake. Potential solutions to barriers as well as potential intervention activities to implement are discussed within these chapters. Last, Bluetooth technologies offer promising solutions to some contact tracing barriers, but the preferences of potential technology users and feasibility of managing such hardware/software approaches will be critical for uptake and adherence