Energy System Modeling for the Integration of Offshore Wind and Onshore Power in Decarbonizing the Oil and Gas Industry

Achieving the green energy transition is a pressing issue to mitigate climate change. This thesis investigates the feasibility and potential of electrifying the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) to reduce emissions to comply with the government's ambitious climate goals towards 2050. An analysis of various scenarios using offshore wind and/or power from shore as electrification alternatives are conducted to determine the most cost-effective solutions, it's impact on the Norwegian energy system, and exploring possibilities of offshore wind in meeting the NCS energy demands. The existing IFE-TIMES-Norway model was updated to implement additional offshore regions and various scenarios were applied to represent the decision problem realistically. To improve the representation of the petroleum industry within TIMES, literature and government electrification plans were incorporated. The findings highlight the urgency of decarbonizing the NCS and the inadequacy of today's electrification plans for achieving climate targets by 2030. Overall, model simulations indicate that electrifying with power from shore alone or using both offshore wind and shore power results in the most significant reduction in CO2 emissions. As the most cost-effective solution for decarbonizing the petroleum industry, combining shore power and offshore wind power is emphasized. In spite of this, results indicate that offshore wind is a key factor in limiting the impact of electrification on the energy system and increasing the total production of renewable energy sources. There are limitations related to using only power from shore, such as the availability of grid capacity and whether power from shore projects is prioritized over other industrial projects that also wish to connect to the grid to manage electrification measures to meet targets and government plans. Based on today's offshore wind investment costs and government plans, offshore wind alone cannot provide enough energy to cover O&G demand in 2030. The study's model simulations of different scenarios demonstrated that offshore regions were successfully implemented and provided adequate solutions for electrifying the NCS. The development of offshore wind production sites and the electrification of oil and gas platforms is also proposed

Characterization of Upper Jurassic Organic-Rich Caprock Shales in the Norwegian Continental Shelf

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Data Descriptor: China CO2 emission accounts 1997-2015

China is the world’s top energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for 30% of global emissions. Compiling an accurate accounting of China’s CO2 emissions is the first step in implementing reduction policies. However, no annual, officially published emissions data exist for China. The current emissions estimated by academic institutes and scholars exhibit great discrepancies. The gap between the different emissions estimates is approximately equal to the total emissions of the Russian Federation (the 4th highest emitter globally) in 2011. In this study, we constructed the time-series of CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces. We followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions accounting method with a territorial administrative scope. The inventories include energy-related emissions (17 fossil fuels in 47 sectors) and process-related emissions (cement production). The first version of our dataset presents emission inventories from 1997 to 2015. We will update the dataset annually. The uniformly formatted emission inventories provide data support for further emission-related research as well as emissions reduction policy-making in China

China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015

China is the world’s top energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for 30% of global emissions. Compiling an accurate accounting of China’s CO2 emissions is the first step in implementing reduction policies. However, no annual, officially published emissions data exist for China. The current emissions estimated by academic institutes and scholars exhibit great discrepancies. The gap between the different emissions estimates is approximately equal to the total emissions of the Russian Federation (the 4th highest emitter globally) in 2011. In this study, we constructed the time-series of CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces. We followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions accounting method with a territorial administrative scope. The inventories include energy-related emissions (17 fossil fuels in 47 sectors) and process-related emissions (cement production). The first version of our dataset presents emission inventories from 1997 to 2015. We will update the dataset annually. The uniformly formatted emission inventories provide data support for further emission-related research as well as emissions reduction policy-making in China

Vurderinger av den fremtidige rollen til bioenergi i den nordiske energi- og skogsektoren

This thesis presents studies that describe different consequences of increased use of forest resources for energy purposes. Forest biomass is widely used in many different applications; in recent years, biofuel has been one of the products that has increasingly received attention. In order to produce forest-based biofuel, forest resources are needed. Either these resources have to be taken from sources that are currently not economical to harvest or biofuel producers have to compete with existing industries to get biomass. This thesis presents the positive and negative effects of increased production of forest-based biofuel within the Nordic countries for the heating, power, and forest sectors. Three different models are used to describe the effects of implementing biofuel production in the Nordic countries: two forest sector models, the Norwegian trade model (NTM) and the Nordic forest sector model (NFSM), and the energy sector model Balmorel. While in the last paper, an integrated model is developed to combine the strengths of NFSM and Balmorel. In paper I, NTM was used to quantify major market uncertainties in the Norwegian forest sector and analyse their impacts on the results of a forest sector model study for Norway. The uncertainties were derived from historical time series of prices and exchange rates for international forest products, and their impacts were addressed using a Monte Carlo approach. The results show that the relative standard deviation for modelled harvest levels varies from 15% to 45%, while for forest products the standard deviations vary from 30% to 80%. The paper concludes that the most important factor for the Norwegian forest sector is the development of international forest product markets. In paper II, NFSM was used to quantify how large-scale production of forest-based biofuel would affect forest owners and forest industries in the Nordic countries. The implications were studied using five scenarios covering a 0–40% biofuel share of fuel consumption. The results show that the sawmill industry increased their profit slightly due to increasing prices for their by-products, while pulp and paper producers saw their yearly profit reduced by up to 3.0 billion €, corresponding to 8% of their annual turnover, due to the increased pulpwood prices. Forest owners increased their revenue by up to 31% due to a 15% increase in harvest at the same time as pulpwood prices increased. The study concludes that the traditional forest sector will change substantially with huge production of forest biofuels. In paper III, NFSM was used to quantify the effects on the forest sector of different policy schemes that promote Nordic forest-based biofuel. This study assessed six different support schemes that might increase the attractiveness of investing in forest-based liquid biofuel facilities. The results show that the necessary subsidy level is in the range of 0.60–0.85 €/L (82–116% of the fossil fuel cost in 2030) for realistic amounts of biofuel production. The feed-in premium is the subsidy scheme that gives the lowest needed subsidy cost for production levels below 6 billion litres (25% market share) of forest-based biofuel, while quota obligations are the cheapest option for production levels above 6 billion litres. In paper IV, Balmorel was used to quantify the role of woody biomass in the production of heat and power in Northern Europe towards 2040. The study focuses on GHG emissions from fossil fuel in the heat and power sectors under different carbon price scenarios, comparing the results with biofuel production. The results show that the use of woody biomass can reduce the direct emissions from the power and heat sector with 4–27% in 2030 compared to a scenario where woody biomass is not available for power and heat generation. At a low carbon price, the use of natural gas, wind, and coal power increases when biomass is not available for power and heat generation, while at higher carbon prices, solar power, wind power, powerto-heat, and natural gas become increasingly competitive; consequently, the use of biomass has a lower impact on emissions reductions. If forest-based biofuel is produced from the same amount of biomass as is used for heat and electricity production, we will get reduced fossil carbon emissions, but the total system cost will increase. NFSM and Balmorel were integrated in paper V in order to increase our understanding of the combined forest and energy sectors. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the integration procedure using a scenario that reduces the fossil emissions in the Nordic countries by 73% compared to 2017. The results show that it is likely that the integrated model presents the connection between heat and electricity production better than standalone models. One of the conclusions is that the Nordic countries have enough forest biomass to fulfil the demand within the industrial sector and for biofuel, heat, and power production. The results from this thesis show that in the forest sector it is likely that forest owners will be the main winners if large amounts of forest-based biofuel are produced, while forest industry, especially pulp and paper producers, will face reduced market share and profitability. Simultaneously, woody biomass contribution to lower the fossil emissions from heat and power, and the transition to low carbon energy systems will likely be more costly if biomass is excluded from energy generation.Denne avhandlingen inneholder flere studier som beskriver forskjellige konsekvenser av økt bruk av skogressurser til energiformål. Skogsbiomasse har mange forskjellige bruksområder, de siste årene har biodrivstoff vært et bruksområde som i økende grad har fått mye oppmerksomhet. For å kunne produsere skogsbasert biodrivstoff trengs store mengder tømmer, enten må tømmeret hentes fra kilder som ikke er økonomiske drivverdige i dag, eller så må produsentene konkurrere med eksisterende næringer for å få den nødvendige biomassen. Denne avhandlingen presenterer positive og negative effekter av økt biodrivstoff produksjon i Norden for varme-, kraft- og skogsektoren. Tre forskjellige modeller er brukt for å beskrive effekten av biodrivstoffproduksjon i Norden, skogsektormodellene som er brukt er Norwegian trade model (NTM) og Nordic forest sector model (NFSM), og energisektormodellen Balmorel. I arbeidet med artikkel V ble det utviklet en kombinert modell for å utnytte styrkene til både NFSM og Balmorel. I artikkel I ble NTM brukt til å kvantifisere hvordan usikkerheten i markedspriser påvirker produksjonsnivåer i Norge, samt å analysere effektene usikkerhetene har på resultatene fra skogsektormodellen. De historiske usikkerhetene ble estimert fra historiske tidsserier for priser på internasjonale skogsprodukter og valutakurser, virkningene av disse ble funnet ved hjelp av Monte Carlo simuleringer. Resultatene viser at det relative standardavviket for hogstnivået varierer fra 15 % til 45 %, mens standardavvikene for sluttprodukter varierer fra 30 % til 80 %. Studien konkluderer med at den viktigste faktoren for norsk skogsektor er utviklingen av internasjonale markedspriser. I artikkel II ble NFSM brukt til å beregne hvordan storstilt utbygging av skogbasert biodrivstoff vil påvirke skogeiere og skogsindustri i Norden. Implikasjonene ble studert ved bruk av fem scenarier for biodrivstoff produksjon tilsvarene 0–40 % av det nordiske drivstofforbruket i 2017. Resultatene viser en svak økning av overskuddet i sagbruksnæringen, dette skyldes økte priser på sagbrukenes biprodukter. Mens masse- og papirprodusenter fikk redusert sitt årlige overskudd med inntil 3,0 milliarder euro, tilsvarende 8 % av deres årlige omsetning, dette skyldes økte massevirkepriser. Samtidig økte skogeiere sine inntekter med opp mot 31 % på grunn av 15 % økning i avvirkningen samtidig som prisene på massevirke økte. Studien konkluderer med at konsekvensene av storstilt biodrivstoff produksjon i Norden vil endre den tradisjonelle skogsektoren betydelig. I artikkel III ble NFSM brukt til å kvantifisere effektene for skogsektoren av forskjellige politiske støtteordninger som fremmer nordisk skogbasert biodrivstoff. Denne studien undersøkte seks forskjellige støtteordninger som kan øke investeringene i flytende skogsbaserte biodrivstoffanlegg. Resultatene viser at det nødvendige subsidienivået ligger i området 0,60–0,85 €/L (82–116 % av den antatte prisen på fossilt drivstoff i 2030) for realistiske produksjonsnivåer. Den støtteordningen som behøvede lavest støttenivå for å gi lønnsom biodrivstoffproduksjon var innmatingstariff for produksjonsnivåer under 6 milliarder liter (25 % markedsandel), mens et innblandingskrav trenger lavest støttenivå for produksjonsnivåer over 6 milliarder liter. I artikkel IV ble Balmorel brukt til å estimere rollen skogsbiomasse har for produksjonen av varme og strøm i Nord-Europa fram mot 2040. Studien setter søkelys på klimagassutslipp fra fossilt brensel i varme- og kraftsektorene under forskjellige karbonprisscenarier, og sammenligner resultatene opp mot biodrivstoffproduksjon. Resultatene viser at bruk av biomasse kan redusere de direkte utslippene fra kraft- og varmesektoren med 4–27 % i 2030 sammenlignet med et scenario hvor biomasse er ekskludert fra kraft- og varmesektoren. Når biomasse ikke er tilgjengelig for kraft- og varmeproduksjon øker bruken av naturgass, vind og kullkraft hvis karbonprisen er lav, mens ved høyere karbonpriser øker bruken av solenergi, vindkraft, kraft-til-varme og naturgass, og følgelig har bruken av biomasse en lavere innvirkning på utslippsreduksjonene enn ved lav karbonpris. Hvis den samme mengden biomasse blir brukt til biodrivstoff vil vi få reduserte de fossile karbonutslipp, men systemkostnadene vil samtidig øke. I artikkel V ble NFSM og Balmorel integrert, med mål å øke forståelsen for den kombinerte skog- og energisektoren i Norden. Ved bruk av et scenario som reduserer fossile utslipp i Norden med 73 % sammenlignet med 2017 diskuteres styrker og svakheter ved integrasjonsprosedyren. Resultatene synliggjør at den integrerte modellen beskriver samhandlingen mellom varme- og strømproduksjon bedre enn de frittstående modellene. En av konklusjonene er at de nordiske landene mest sannsynlig har nok skogsbiomasse til å oppfylle etterspørselen fra industrisektoren og fra biodrivstoff-, varme- og kraftproduksjon. Resultatene fra denne avhandlingen viser at det er sannsynlig at skogeiere vil ha mest å tjene av at store mengder skogbasert biodrivstoff produseres i Norden, mens skogsindustrien og spesielt masse- og papirprodusenter vil få redusert lønnsomhet. Samtidig kan biomasse bidra til å senke de fossile utslipp fra varme- og kraftproduksjon, og overgangen til et energisystem med lave karbon utslipp vil trolig bli mer kostbart hvis biomasse blir ekskludert fra bruk til energiproduksjon.Bio4fuels ; BioNEX

The Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exploration, Production, and Uncertainty

NO ABSTRAC

The role of woody biomass for reduction of fossil GHG emissions in the future North European energy sector

In this study, we analyse the use of woody biomass in the heat and power sector in Northern Europe towards 2040 and quantify the fossil GHG-emission reductions from biomass use at different carbon price levels. The applied partial equilibrium energy system model has endogenous capacity investments in relevant heat and power technologies. The results show that use of woody biomass can reduce the direct emissions from the Northern European power and heat sector by 4–27% for carbon prices in the range of 5–103 €/tonne CO2eq in 2030 compared to a scenario where woody biomass is not available for power and heat generation. The cost of delivering heat and electricity increases with 0.2–0.7% when wood chips are excluded, depending on the carbon price. At a low carbon price, the use of natural gas, wind, and coal power generation increases when biomass is not available for power and heat generation. At higher carbon prices, solar power, wind power, power-to-heat, and natural gas become increasingly competitive, and therefore the use of biomass has a lower impact on emission reductions. Using the same biomass volumes for liquid transport fuel, we find a higher impact on fossil carbon emission reductions but substantially higher costs. The main conclusion from this study is that woody biomass contribution to lowering the fossil emission from heat and power generation in the Northern Europe, and the transition to low carbon energy system will likely be more costly if biomass is excluded from heat and power generation.publishedVersio

Cost optimization of biofuel production – The impact of scale, integration, transport and supply chain configurations

This study uses a geographically-explicit cost optimization model to analyze the impact of and interrelation between four cost reduction strategies for biofuel production: economies of scale, intermodal transport, integration with existing industries, and distributed supply chain configurations (i.e. supply chains with an intermediate pre-treatment step to reduce biomass transport cost). The model assessed biofuel production levels ranging from 1 to 150 PJ a−1 in the context of the existing Swedish forest industry. Biofuel was produced from forestry biomass using hydrothermal liquefaction and hydroprocessing. Simultaneous implementation of all cost reduction strategies yielded minimum biofuel production costs of 18.1–18.2 € GJ−1 at biofuel production levels between 10 and 75 PJ a−1. Limiting the economies of scale was shown to cause the largest cost increase (+0–12%, increasing with biofuel production level), followed by disabling integration benefits (+1–10%, decreasing with biofuel production level) and allowing unimodal truck transport only (+0–6%, increasing with biofuel production level). Distributed supply chain configurations were introduced once biomass supply became increasingly dispersed, but did not provide a significant cost benefit (<1%). Disabling the benefits of integration favors large-scale centralized production, while intermodal transport networks positively affect the benefits of economies of scale. As biofuel production costs still exceeds the price of fossil transport fuels in Sweden after implementation of all cost reduction strategies, policy support and stimulation of further technological learning remains essential to achieve cost parity with fossil fuels for this feedstock/technology combination in this spatiotemporal context

Supply chain effects of China's fast growing marine economy on greenhouse gas emissions

The marine economic activities has become a vital economic driving force for development of China's economy. However, the trajectory of greenhouse gas (i.e. GHG) emissions associated the fast growing marine economy and its role in emission mitigation remain unclear. Through compiling high-resolution and time-series environmental input–output tables for 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017, this study quantify development of 13 key marine industries in driving national economic development and its supply chains, and assesses the direct and indirect contributions of marine industries to the national economy and GHGs emissions. Our results show that the total emissions of marine economy increased by 2.3 times from 2002 to 2017, and the share of that in national total emissions increased by 43.3%. The economic output of marine economy may lead to up to 1.8 times of the total economic output in the upstream industries, while the indirect emissions of major marine economy embodied in the upstream supply chains is on average 3.5 times of direct emissions from marine industries. Our findings highlight the necessity of considering total supply chain GHGs emissions associated with the fast growing marine economy to better achieve China's climate mitigation targets

The role of hydrogen-based power systems in the energy transition of the residential sector

The unsustainable and continuous growth of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) has pushed governments, private companies and stakeholders to adopt measures and policies to fight against climate change. Within this framework, increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources (RES) to final consumed energy plays a key role in the planned energy transition. Regarding the residential sector in Europe, 92% of GHG emissions comes from 75% of the building stock that is over 25 years old, and highly inefficient. Thus, this sector must raise RES penetration from the current 36% to 77% by 2050 to comply with emissions targets. In this regard, the hybridization of hydrogen-based technologies and RES represents a reliable and versatile solution to facilitate decarbonization of the residential sector. This study provides an overview and analysis of standalone renewable hydrogen-based systems (RHS) focusing on the residential and buildings sector, as well as critical infrastructures like telecom stations, data servers, etc. For detailed evaluation of RHS, several pilot plants and real demonstration plants implemented worldwide are reviewed. To this end, a techno-economic assessment of relevant parameters like self-sufficiency ratio, levelized cost of energy and hydrogen roundtrip efficiency is provided. Moreover, the performance of the different configurations is evaluated by comparing the installed power of each component and their energy contribution to cover the load over a defined period of time. Challenges ahead are identified for the wider deployment of RHS in the residential and buildings sector.This research is supported by the project ENERGY PUSH SOE3/P3/ E0865, which is co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERPF) in the framework of the INTERREG SUDOE Programme and the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities (project RTI2018-093310-B-I00