Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events hot spots for cumulative climate change in Uganda

The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation of mitigation policies. However, national scale composites of climate hotspots remain a bottle neck to this policy formation. This paper therefore, modelled the spatially explicit extreme weather and climate events indicators into a Uganda-national extreme weather and climate events composite hotspot indicator model. The hotspot model was mapped into decomposable sub-indicators based on the Geon concept. A spatial indicator framework was developed through literature review and expert knowledge. The resulting indicators were weighted using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) /factor analysis and then normalized. They were aggregated using Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tools in an Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) environment. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to ascertain the influence and significance of the indicators in the resultant model. A cumulative climate change index model was hence analysed and mapped. The mapping provides spatially explicit information regarding climate extremes at national scale, consequently addressing its growing demand among public and private institutions. Further research, into the complex interactions of cumulative climatic factors and external components like ecological systems and anthropogenic biomes will go a long way in boosting climate information. This coupled with easy access to open web availability; if adopted, will readily inform national climate change policy at national level and greatly improve decision making within development sectors, hence mitigating the advance effects of climate change

Spatial-Explicit Modeling of Social Vulnerability to Malaria in East Africa.

Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the immunity indicator which has a marked impact on the composite vulnerability index. We introduce a conceptual framework for modeling risk and vulnerability to VBDs. Drawing on the framework we modeled social vulnerability to malaria in the context of global change using a spatially explicit approach. The results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting interventions that aim at reducing the burden of the disease amongst the different vulnerable population groups

Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change

Assessing Community Resilience to Urban Flooding in Multiple Types of the Transient Population in China

While various measures of mitigation and adaptation to climate change have been taken in recent years, many have gradually reached a consensus that building community resilience is of great significance when responding to climate change, especially urban flooding. There has been a dearth of research on community resilience to urban floods, especially among transient communities, and therefore there is a need to conduct further empirical studies to improve our understanding, and to identify appropriate interventions. Thus, this work combines two existing resilience assessment frameworks to address these issues in three different types of transient community, namely an urban village, commercial housing, and apartments, all located in Wuhan, China. An analytic hierarchy process–back propagation neural network (AHP-BP) model was developed to estimate the community resilience within these three transient communities. The effects of changes in the prioritization of key resilience indicators under different environmental, economic, and social factors was analyzed across the three communities. The results demonstrate that the ranking of the indicators reflects the connection between disaster resilience and the evaluation units of diverse transient communities. These aspects show the differences in the disaster resilience of different types of transient communities. The proposed method can help decision makers in identifying the areas that are lagging behind, and those that need to be prioritized when allocating limited and/or stretched resources

A field-based modelling framework of the ecohydrology of schistosomiasis

Successful control of schistosomiasis, a water-borne parasitic disease, is challenged by the intricacy of the wormâs lifecycle, which depends on aquatic snail intermediate hosts, and involves environmental, ecologic, and socio-economic factors. Current strategies rely on deworming through mass drug administration which however do not protect against reinfection and the persistence of hotspots. It is recognized that multifaceted approaches will be necessary to reach elimination, whose development will require a renewed focus on the diseaseâs social-ecological drivers. Taking cue from the hydrological underpinning of these drivers, this Thesis aims at developing an ecohydrological approach to schistosomiasis with a view to identifying and exploiting the points in which its cycle can be broken. Schistosomiasis is a poverty-reinforcing disease affecting more than 150 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, being the parasitic disease causing the largest health burden after malaria. However, the impairing morbidity it causes has been undervalued in the past, qualifying it as a neglected tropical disease. Moreover, water resources development often exacerbate transmission, posing scientific and ethical challenges in addressing the ensuing trade-off between economic development and public health. The relevance of this Thesisâ work lies in furthering tools to offset this trade-off by unlocking the predictive appraisal of the social-ecological drivers of transmission. An integration of fieldwork applied in Burkina Faso (West Africa) and theoretical methods are employed to address this aim. This Thesis establishes the use of spatially explicit mathematical models of schistosomiasis at the national-scale, allowing to study the effect of human mobility and spatial heterogeneity of transmission parameters. Weekly ecological samplings of snail abundance and continuous environmental monitoring were preformed at three sites along the countryâs climatic gradient, leveraged through ecological modelling. A novel methodology for the large-scale prediction of river network ephemerality allowed for refined snail species distribution models, and the analysis of the diseaseâs geography in link with socio-economic covariates. Finally, surveys and participatory workshops shed light on local-scale water contact patterns. The obtained results substantiate the stance that hydrology is a first-order control of disease transmission. Stability analysis of the spatially explicit model generated additional insight into the impact of the expansion of suitable snail habitat due to water resources development, highlighting the interplay between local and country-wide effects driven by human mobility. Models of snail ecology revealed key hydrological drivers, and disputed density feedbacks. Uncovered phase shifts between permanent and ephemeral habitats were adequately reproduced at the national scale through model regionalization. Characterization and predictions of hydrological ephemerality improved the estimation of the snailsâ ecological range, mirroring the diseaseâs geography. Finally a national-scale association between ephemerality and disease risk was observed, possibly due to human-water contacts aggregation, as supported by preliminary results at village-level. The future incorporation of these ecohydrological findings into spatially explicit models of schistosomiasis is considered promising for optimizing control strategies and attaining disease elimination

Assessing the vulnerability of resource-poor households to disasters associated with climate variability using remote sensing and GIS techniques in the Nkonkobe Local Municipality, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

The main objective of the study was to assess the extent to which resource-poor households in selected villages of Nkonkobe Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa are vulnerable to drought by using an improvised remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based mapping approach. The research methodology was comprised of 1) assessment of vulnerability levels and 2) the calculation of established drought assessment indices comprising the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) from wet-season Landsat images covering a period of 29 years from 1985 to 2014 in order to objectively determine the temporal recurrence of drought in Nkonkobe Local Municipality. Vulnerability of households to drought was determined by using a multi-step GIS-based mapping approach in which 3 components comprising exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were simultaneously analysed and averaged to determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Thereafter, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to establish weighted contributions of these components to vulnerability. The weights applied to the AHP were obtained from the 2012 - 2017 Nkonkobe Integrated Development Plan (IDP) and perceptions that were solicited from key informants who were judged to be knowledgeable about the subject. A Kruskal-Wallis H test on demographic data for water access revealed that the demographic results are independent of choice of data acquired from different data providers (χ2(2) = 1.26, p = 0.533, with a mean ranked population scores of 7.4 for ECSECC, 6.8 for Quantec and 9.8 for StatsSA). Simple linear regression analysis revealed strong positive correlations between NDWI and NDVI ((r = 0.99609375, R2 = 1, for 1985), 1995 (r = 0.99609375, R2 = 1 for 1995), (r = 0.99609375, R2 = 1 for 2005) and (r = 0.99609375, R2 = 1 for 2014). The regression analysis proved that vegetation condition depends on surface water arising from rainfall. The results indicate that the whole of Nkonkobe Local Municipality is susceptible to drought with villages in south eastern part being most vulnerable to droughts due to high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity

Remote Sensing of Precipitation: Part II

Precipitation is a well-recognized pillar in the global water and energy balances. The accurate and timely understanding of its characteristics at the global, regional and local scales is indispensable for a clearer insight on the mechanisms underlying the Earth’s atmosphere-ocean complex system. Precipitation is one of the elements that is documented to be greatly affected by climate change. In its various forms, precipitation comprises the primary source of freshwater, which is vital for the sustainability of almost all human activities. Its socio-economic significance is fundamental in managing this natural resource effectively, in applications ranging from irrigation to industrial and household usage. Remote sensing of precipitation is pursued through a broad spectrum of continuously enriched and upgraded instrumentation, embracing sensors which can be ground-based (e.g., weather radars), satellite-borne (e.g., passive or active space-borne sensors), underwater (e.g., hydrophones), aerial, or ship-borne. This volume hosts original research contributions on several aspects of remote sensing of precipitation, including applications which embrace the use of remote sensing in tackling issues such as precipitation estimation, seasonal characteristics of precipitation and frequency analysis, assessment of satellite precipitation products, storm prediction, rain microphysics and microstructure, and the comparison of satellite and numerical weather prediction precipitation products

Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability-Volume 4

Anthropogenic activities are significant drivers of climate change and environmental degradation. Such activities are particularly influential in the context of the land system that is an important medium connecting earth surface, atmospheric dynamics, ecological systems, and human activities. Assessment of land use land cover changes and associated environmental, economic, and social consequences is essential to provide references for enhancing climate resilience and improving environmental sustainability. On the one hand, this book touches on various environmental topics, including soil erosion, crop yield, bioclimatic variation, carbon emission, natural vegetation dynamics, ecosystem and biodiversity degradation, and habitat quality caused by both climate change and earth surface modifications. On the other hand, it explores a series of socioeconomic facts, such as education equity, population migration, economic growth, sustainable development, and urban structure transformation, along with urbanization. The results of this book are of significance in terms of revealing the impact of land use land cover changes and generating policy recommendations for land management. More broadly, this book is important for understanding the interrelationships among life on land, good health and wellbeing, quality education, climate actions, economic growth, sustainable cities and communities, and responsible consumption and production according to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We expect the book to benefit decision makers, practitioners, and researchers in different fields, such as climate governance, crop science and agricultural engineering, forest ecosystem, land management, urban planning and design, urban governance, and institutional operation.Prof. Bao-Jie He acknowledges the Project NO. 2021CDJQY-004 supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and the Project NO. 2022ZA01 supported by the State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science, South China University of Technology, China. We appreciate the assistance of Mr. Lifeng Xiong, Mr. Wei Wang, Ms. Xueke Chen, and Ms. Anxian Chen at School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing University, China

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

This open access book discusses current thinking and presents the main issues and challenges associated with climate change in Africa. It introduces evidences from studies and projects which show how climate change adaptation is being - and may continue to be successfully implemented in African countries. Thanks to its scope and wide range of themes surrounding climate change, the ambition is that this book will be a lead publication on the topic, which may be regularly updated and hence capture further works. Climate change is a major global challenge. However, some geographical regions are more severly affected than others. One of these regions is the African continent. Due to a combination of unfavourable socio-economic and meteorological conditions, African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The recently released IPCC special report "Global Warming of 1.5º C" outlines the fact that keeping global warming by the level of 1.5º C is possible, but also suggested that an increase by 2º C could lead to crises with crops (agriculture fed by rain could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020) and livestock production, could damage water supplies and pose an additonal threat to coastal areas. The 5th Assessment Report produced by IPCC predicts that wheat may disappear from Africa by 2080, and that maize— a staple—will fall significantly in southern Africa. Also, arid and semi-arid lands are likely to increase by up to 8%, with severe ramifications for livelihoods, poverty eradication and meeting the SDGs. Pursuing appropriate adaptation strategies is thus vital, in order to address the current and future challenges posed by a changing climate. It is against this background that the "African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation" is being published. It contains papers prepared by scholars, representatives from social movements, practitioners and members of governmental agencies, undertaking research and/or executing climate change projects in Africa, and working with communities across the African continent. Encompassing over 100 contribtions from across Africa, it is the most comprehensive publication on climate change adaptation in Africa ever produced